psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/14/2019 at 11:57 PM, Danajames said: Interesting how the 1800 GFS run has pretty much lost the Tuesday event. But it will be a close call on Saturday and as of right now, it looks like the winners will once again be D.C., northern and central VA and southern MD. Not convinced it will be cold enough for all snow, even though the forcing will be stronger in certain areas of VA. which may lead to rain changing to snow. Whoever gets the snow, I can't see anymore than 1-3" at most since surface temperatures on Saturday will be pretty marginal for accumulation. Sunday still looks like a rain event for the most part with the thermal profiles not being very supportive of snow. Maybe near the PA line can see more of a mix and some minor accumulation. Saturday still looks to be the most interesting since a shift north is not out of the question. As for Tuesday, I hope the GFS is correct and we don't get anything because if we do, it will just be snow or a mix, changing to rain by later in the day. Expand Let me know when your posts will be changing to less awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/14/2019 at 10:26 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Take a break and come back in 2 weeks. Our last stand. My prediction tho- just as the western trough begins to progress east, the AO/NAO goes super positive, the trough retreats into N central Canada, and winter ends. Expand Dunno if your kidding but that’s kind of what the guidance is trending towards imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 12:14 AM, psuhoffman said: Dunno if your kidding but that’s kind of what the guidance is trending towards imo. Expand Nope not kidding. Been seeing hints of it and can clearly see how it could go that way on the latest EPS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 12:17 AM, C.A.P.E. said: Nope not kidding. Been seeing hints of it and can clearly see how it could go that way on the latest EPS run. Expand I see it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Never bet against the ground hog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 18z euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 12:25 AM, MD Snow said: 18z euro? Expand 0.5” snow for DC. ETA: “trace” line gets to Baltimore. 2.5” EZF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 12:22 AM, EastCoast NPZ said: Never bet against the ground hog. Expand or DT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 12:18 AM, psuhoffman said: I see it too Expand So, we are supposed to believe the LR now when it shows a shutout pattern, but be intrigued by it the rest of 65% of the winter when it shows promise at 15 days? All I am saying is that beyond 6-7 days, NWP has not performed well this year. I will not give up based on the LR guidance now any more than I will believe it when it shows good things for mby. I think it is a watch threats materialize/disappear inside of 6 days kind of year, at least for around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 12:31 AM, WesternFringe said: So, we are supposed to believe the LR now when it shows a shutout pattern, but be intrigued by it the rest of 65% of the winter when it shows promise at 15 days? All I am saying is that beyond 6-7 days, NWP has not performed well this year. I will not give up based on the LR guidance now any more than I will believe it when it shows good things for mby. I think it is a watch threats materialize/disappear inside of 6 days kind of year, at least for around here. Expand So we’re supposed to discuss the LR in this thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 12:33 AM, MD Snow said: So we’re supposed to discuss the LR in this thread? Expand I was responding to PSU who was responding to C.A.PE. about the long range, so ask them thread police Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 12:26 AM, nj2va said: 0.5” snow for DC. ETA: “trace” line gets to Baltimore. 2.5” EZF. Expand Sounds just like 12z, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Euro 12z vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 12:46 AM, snowdude said: Euro 12z vs 18z. Expand I’m guessing that the 4-5” strip from Hanover County up thru the Northern Neck is a little coastal enhancement on 18z Euro. Like that it still shows the 2-4” around EZF.......and it did expand a little on North side too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 12:31 AM, WesternFringe said: So, we are supposed to believe the LR now when it shows a shutout pattern, but be intrigued by it the rest of 65% of the winter when it shows promise at 15 days? All I am saying is that beyond 6-7 days, NWP has not performed well this year. I will not give up based on the LR guidance now any more than I will believe it when it shows good things for mby. I think it is a watch threats materialize/disappear inside of 6 days kind of year, at least for around here. Expand You can believe what you want. Who said to give up? We are simply discussing where the pattern may be heading based on the current guidance. Nothing is etched in stone. Goes without saying. I was messing with Ji a bit, but otherwise engaging in objective analysis with PSU. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 The FV3/RGEM/HDRPS/NAM/CMC being the northernmost models is almost a perfect throwback to December 9. I ignored them last time. Won't be doing so again. Still planning on heading back north for this one. God help me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 No one said to give up, but you were both agreeing that maybe coming back in 2 weeks was a smart idea. My only point is that some threats this year have first materialized inside that 2 week window and have produced while many more have been modeled more than 2 weeks out that don't produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 12:46 AM, snowdude said: Euro 12z vs 18z. Expand Interesting that the 18z euro picked up on the coastal enhancement band that sets up with a NE trajectory. Wasn’t there at 12z. FV3 picked up on it at 18z as well. Something to watch for areas south of say Annapolis and eastern shore if things do tick north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 12:49 AM, wawarriors4 said: I’m guessing that the 4-5” strip from Hanover Clubtyvup thru the Northern Neck is a little coastal enhancement on 18z Euro. Like that it still shows the 2-4” around EZF.......and it did expand a little on North side too Expand A little more juice and a tick or two Norther and there could be warning level snow somewhere within 30 miles of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 At least the Euro was a bit more juiced and maybe ever so slightly more north, but we are going to need a pretty big adjustment or a bunch of small ones now for most of us to get in on anything other than some snow tv at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 12:51 AM, C.A.P.E. said: You can believe what you want. Who said to give up? We are simply discussing where the pattern may be heading based on the current guidance. Nothing is etched in stone. Goes without saying. I was messing with Ji a bit, but otherwise engaging in objective analysis with PSU. Expand They obviously don’t want that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Not that I love the way they've been performing lately, but the latest 21z SREF increases snow totals big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 NAM looks amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 1:55 AM, Yeoman said: NAM looks amped Expand What hour are you up to? TT has to 19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 2:07 AM, BristowWx said: What hour are you up to? TT has to 19. Expand 34 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Through 29hrs confluence pressing a little more which is reflected in precip shield being slightly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Not liking that the confluence is slightly stronger through 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 the confluence is amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 Wow NAM is REALLY amped. 989 mb!!!! with the low up in Canada suppressing our storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 15, 2019 Share Posted February 15, 2019 On 2/15/2019 at 1:26 AM, psuhoffman said: They obviously don’t want that. Expand I love your objective analysis, it is one of the reasons this board is awesome. My point remains why should we be encouraged by the the 10+ day good looking patterns while immediately discouraged by the same 10+ day bad looking patterns? Neither has proven to be true with regard to ground truth snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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