87storms Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 9:59 PM, Fozz said: Big improvement on the GFS from 12z. Love it. Expand it's basically a perfect track. north trend can stop now lol. time to lock this one in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 My yard rides the .20" QPF line on 18Z. 0.40" is 25 miles south. Good measuring stick to track trends over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:01 PM, 87storms said: it's basically a perfect track. north trend can stop now lol. time to lock this one in. Expand nah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Follow up storm actually passes under us but not cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Total precip. Accumulating snow is northern Stafford county and up five or take. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 lolz ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 I still need to change my screen name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 GFS looks better but looking at precip panels, I thought it was going to be more a 4-6 hit rather than a 2-4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Looks like 2-4/3-6 type deal. Would probably go 2-4 inside the beltway with potentially higher amounts in the western burbs. As depicted on GFS the storm will be a quick hitter and may start as rain in some areas. Snow may not stick at onset which may keep accumulations down in the UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:11 PM, osfan24 said: GFS looks better but looking at precip panels, I thought it was going to be more a 4-6 hit rather than a 2-4. Expand The Euro is a 4-6 type deal, slightly higher in some parts. The GFS is more 3-5 for now, with some localized higher totals. Overall, pretty decent agreement at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:11 PM, osfan24 said: GFS looks better but looking at precip panels, I thought it was going to be more a 4-6 hit rather than a 2-4. Expand Temps are mild at onset then drop to 31-32 verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:11 PM, osfan24 said: GFS looks better but looking at precip panels, I thought it was going to be more a 4-6 hit rather than a 2-4. Expand I’m with you. You and I are both looking for the warning snow. Maybe some time to juice it up a smidge more? Eta: or just ride the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:11 PM, osfan24 said: GFS looks better but looking at precip panels, I thought it was going to be more a 4-6 hit rather than a 2-4. Expand i think the totals are a result of how quickly the storm is in/out. with these temps we might actually fair better with short duration, good rates, than a long drawn out light, occasional moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:13 PM, Scraff said: I’m with you. You and I are both looking for the warning snow. Maybe some time to juice it up a smidge more? Expand This will probably fall just short of a warning event IMO but who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:09 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Expand Okay let's keep that where it is... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:14 PM, 87storms said: i think the totals are a result of how quickly the storm is in/out. with these temps we might actually fair better with short duration, good rates, than a long drawn out light, occasional moderate. Expand We definitely need a thump if we are going to get good accumulation. Moderate to heavy snow for 4-6 hours would do it. Light to moderate for 12 hours would look very different on the ground IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Really good consistency between the Euro and GFS + being 72 hours out should increase the confidence for the area. Obviously 25-50 mile shifts either way have a big impact on totals. I'll be in McHenry for President's Day weekend skiing so would be happy with 4-6" of fresh powder Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:14 PM, 87storms said: i think the totals are a result of how quickly the storm is in/out. with these temps we might actually fair better with short duration, good rates, than a long drawn out light, occasional moderate. Expand It's basically 6-8 hours it appears, with about 0.40-0.50" QPF looking at DC area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:19 PM, Always in Zugzwang said: It's basically 6-8 hours it appears, with about 0.40-0.50" QPF looking at DC area. Expand that's a nice, classic event for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:20 PM, 87storms said: that's a nice, classic event for this area. Expand It would be a nice event. Daytime snow is great. Plus temps would be just cold enough to make the side roads snowy but the main roads should be passable. So a bit of a nuisance to get around but not crippling for the holiday travel (not that crippling would be bad but sometimes it’s nice to be able to get around!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 This would be a nice event lolzz ninja Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:15 PM, jaydreb said: This will probably fall just short of a warning event IMO but who knows. Expand I won’t cry over 4” of Saturday freshies if we pull it off. But nothing less or I’ll weep hard. Lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:28 PM, Yeoman said: This would be a nice event lolzz ninja Expand 'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Sounds like we all agree that it would be a nice event! Let’s make it happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:42 PM, jaydreb said: Sounds like we all agree that it would be a nice event! Let’s make it happen. Expand Best be pukin freshies or bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 FV3 also bumped north but QPF not as robust as the old GFS in NVA/DC. Like where we sit right now given the Euro/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Since models are starting to agree, someone tag me when we get NAM'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 10:16 PM, Woodbridge02 said: Okay let's keep that where it is... Expand And then juice it up a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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