stormtracker Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 8:34 PM, Hurricanegiants said: Wow. LWX anything but bullish in their 3:00 update. A whole lot of nothing. Even the Mon/Tues was a mix bag. Favoring warner side of temps mostly as well. Ugh. Hopefully later models will turn that around. Expand Most days, it depends on the forecaster. Woody! used to be the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowCane Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 8:34 PM, Hurricanegiants said: Wow. LWX anything but bullish in their 3:00 update. A whole lot of nothing. Even the Mon/Tues was a mix bag. Favoring warner side of temps mostly as well. Ugh. Hopefully later models will turn that around. Expand They upped the wintry precip chances to likely on Saturday so their confidence increased a bit after the 12z runs. Temps look marginal to begin the event so I'm sure they'll be mixing somewhere, so seems like a reasonable forecast at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 6:49 PM, nw baltimore wx said: Even if there isn't a move north near game time, I'd be psyched to see accumulating snow falling during the day. There are so many close and good breweries with big windows in any direction nowadays, that I'm not worried. Expand With it being 60 the day before, I do wonder about accumulations, though...But we need a shift north--right now we've only got about 11 inches on the year. And with next week's system not seeming to get any colder atm...we may need every inch we can get!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 8:48 PM, Maestrobjwa said: With it being 60 the day before, I do wonder about accumulations, though... Expand Antecedent warmth can be easily overcome with proper rates. Mid Feb sun angle combined with barely freezing temps will be harder to overcome. Better start early and better thump. I know I am screwed, as usual, with light rates that will lead to wet streets and sloppy trashcan lids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StantonParkHoya Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 8:54 PM, EastCoast NPZ said: Antecedent warmth can be easily overcome with proper rates. Mid Feb sun angle combined with barely freezing temps will be harder to overcome. Better start early and better thump. I know I am screwed, as usual, with light rates that will lead to wet streets and sloppy trashcan lids. Expand We're on the board with our first one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 8:54 PM, EastCoast NPZ said: Antecedent warmth can be easily overcome with proper rates. Mid Feb sun angle combined with barely freezing temps will be harder to overcome. Better start early and better thump. I know I am screwed, as usual, with light rates that will lead to wet streets and sloppy trashcan lids. Expand So you are somehow going to get good rates without thick cloud cover to mute radiation? You’re specific problem is downaloping. That will make rates lighter and cloud over thinner which makes you more susceptible to radiation issues. I’ve lived in a valley shadow effect area before in PA I know what it’s like. But that’s a local problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Icon looks... better? Precip reaches further north a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 ICON is a rain to snow type deal verbatim. Looks like accumulations would be rate dependent. It is further north than its 12z run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Id take 3-5 for the heart of Maryland and run with it! Euro is holding strong, which I guess is the best model to have on our side. NAM hasn’t come around, but honestly, who cares Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 And good grief, stop with the sun angle nonsense. How many times does it need to be 50-60 one day, snow the next and stick for people to stop with this nonsense? It’s the heart of winter for us. If temps are 30-31 and it’s snowing, it’ll stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 9:14 PM, Deer Whisperer said: Icon looks... better? Precip reaches further north a bit Expand May have to suffer through rain but my experience is it will quickly go to snow. Unless it’s way north. Accumulation is another story. Not sure about that. Cut in half whatever is advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 9:23 PM, jayyy said: And good grief, stop with the sun angle nonsense. How many times does it need to be 50-60 one day, snow the next and stick for people to stop with this nonsense? It’s the heart of winter for us. If temps are 30-31 and it’s snowing, it’ll stick. Expand Maybe. If it's 30-31 and not snowing that hard during the day and it's 60 the day before, it's going to have a tough time sticking any time of the year, much less this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 8:58 PM, psuhoffman said: So you are somehow going to get good rates without thick cloud cover to mute radiation? You’re specific problem is downaloping. That will make rates lighter and cloud over thinner which makes you more susceptible to radiation issues. I’ve lived in a valley shadow effect area before in PA I know what it’s like. But that’s a local problem. Expand True. No, I likely won't get good rates; that's usually my problem. Not sure I get the point you were making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 9:23 PM, jayyy said: And good grief, stop with the sun angle nonsense. How many times does it need to be 50-60 one day, snow the next and stick for people to stop with this nonsense? It’s the heart of winter for us. If temps are 30-31 and it’s snowing, it’ll stick. Expand completely disagree especially near the cities. not sure if it's really a sun angle thing, but we're generally a rate dependent town. we're not minnesota. our temps are fringe at best and we usually need rates for it to become a legitimate snowstorm. light snow just doesn't do much here when surface temps are borderline, like Saturday is looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 9:23 PM, jayyy said: And good grief, stop with the sun angle nonsense. How many times does it need to be 50-60 one day, snow the next and stick for people to stop with this nonsense? It’s the heart of winter for us. If temps are 30-31 and it’s snowing, it’ll stick. Expand Depends on rates. Light snow is not sticking this time of year during the day at 31F. Good rates will overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 8:34 PM, Hurricanegiants said: Wow. LWX anything but bullish in their 3:00 update. A whole lot of nothing. Even the Mon/Tues was a mix bag. Favoring warner side of temps mostly as well. Ugh. Hopefully later models will turn that around. Expand Mount Holly not impressed either at this point for event 1. Going warm. Even if moisture makes it into their southern PA and SNJ zones they are thinking snow to rain with maybe an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Gfs coming north. Warmer as well through 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 9:47 PM, 87storms said: completely disagree especially near the cities. not sure if it's really a sun angle thing, but we're generally a rate dependent town. we're not minnesota. our temps are fringe at best and we usually need rates for it to become a legitimate snowstorm. light snow just doesn't do much here when surface temps are borderline, like Saturday is looking. Expand Bingo. I've seen light snow melt on contact for hours in late December at 30F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 GFS now same as Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Light rain to thump. Very Euro like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 GFS is real nice. Very EURO-esque. Can almost call it consensus! ninja’d x2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 18z is a hit. Let’s do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Happy hour is back!! Getting Euro’d by the GFS. Lol. Eta: You can see how the northeastern blue bowling ball has eased and opened up room for our victory parade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 18z is a nice flush hit for NOVA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 GFS and Euro say the same thing and we are 72 hours out. Normally I’d feel pretty good about it except with this one the strip of snow is so narrow that small shifts would make a big difference IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Game on for route 64 and north. Euro leading the way once again. What else is new? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Maps or it didn't happen! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 9:52 PM, Scraff said: Happy hour is back!! Getting Euro’d by the GFS. Lol. Eta: You can see how the northeastern blue bowling ball has eased and opened up room for our victory parade. Expand Happy Hour just triggered my intrinsic happy hour tendencies. Time for a whiskey stout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 Big improvement on the GFS from 12z. Love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 13, 2019 Share Posted February 13, 2019 On 2/13/2019 at 9:58 PM, C.A.P.E. said: Happy Hour just triggered my intrinsic happy hour tendencies. Time for a whiskey stout. Expand Lol. I picked the wrong week to quit drinking...until Friday anyway. Enjoy! Now fingers crossed we get more hits on the GooFuS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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