WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Whelp, we’ve got something new to track. Let’s hope the EPS jumps onboard. Watch the temps and north trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I'm just glad I didn't foolishly cancel winter in early January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 150 miles is a lot of shift North in a couple of runs in my opinion with marginal temps with 4 days to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 You're overthinking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 150 miles is a lot of shift North in a couple of runs in my opinion with marginal temps with 4 days to go. wasnt this a cutter 2 days ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: wasnt this a cutter 2 days ago? The cutter is still there..this is the follow up...and I am overthinking it. point taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, BristowWx said: 150 miles is a lot of shift North in a couple of runs in my opinion with marginal temps with 4 days to go. 3 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: wasnt this a cutter 2 days ago? It wasn't a cutte, it is just recently "found" but I know where the feeling is coming from. Even minor shifts like the 0z to 12z Euro show take this part of the subforum out of it, part of the deal living to the south of DC but still, it's not exactly exciting, but there's always ice on Sunday or what not, so who knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 How do we look snow wise between the two from CHO toward EZF? The bump North on the Euro with the Saturday deal took us from 4-5" to like 1", I've seen this before.......CHO to EZF is kinda ugly. Lost a lot of snow between 0z-12z. EZF is better then CHO. I’m still planning to head to Arlington on Friday. Would be nice to head back home and see two storms back to back. Hopefully both locations do well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: wasnt this a cutter 2 days ago? It wasn’t here before yesterday’s 12z runs that I saw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: CHO to EZF is kinda ugly. Lost a lot of snow between 0z-12z. EZF is better then CHO. I’m still planning to head to Arlington on Friday. Would be nice to head back home and see two storms back to back. Hopefully both locations do well. Yeah, hopefully, seen this before though, but I am optimistic by nature....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Small shifts mean a lot in this setup but the only shift I really saw was the precip shield and strength of cold push from the N. The slp tracks right along the NC/VA boarder. A money track for keeping what cold is around in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 So we go from nothing to track until next Tuesday/Wednesday to all of a sudden back to back threats to track sat and sun and the whole thread is a meltdown so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: It wasn't a cutte, it is just recently "found" but I know where the feeling is coming from. Even minor shifts like the 0z to 12z Euro show take this part of the subforum out of it, part of the deal living to the south of DC but still, it's not exactly exciting, but there's always ice on Sunday or what not, so who knows right and especially for your location. you cant afford another shift or its over. two shifts and its over for me too. that was my point. there is such a huge span between the southern part of our subforum to the northern part sometimes I have to look at where the poster is from if I don't know them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
caviman2201 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 12Z Euro puts down .4-.5" QPF area-wide, says its 99% snow, Kuchera output is 3-6" N&W of DC, 1-2" S&E Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Maps, maps, maps. Please post maps. Text data that looks like it was spit out of a 70's IBM inputted with punch cards doesn't help much, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, BristowWx said: right and especially for your location. you cant afford another shift or its over. two shifts and its over for me too. that was my point. there is such a huge span between the southern part of our subforum to the northern part sometimes I have to look at where the poster is from if I don't know them. Verbatim, the Euro wouldn't even cover our lawns. That wasn't good for us. We wait. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Maps, maps, maps. Please post maps. Text data that looks like it was spit out of a 70's IBM inputted with punch cards doesn't help much, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Verbatim, the Euro wouldn't even cover our lawns. That wasn't good for us. We wait. It wasn’t long ago the weekend wasn’t even on our radar. I think we need to give this a couple days to simmer before we throw in the towel or start dancing in the streets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 30 minutes ago, BristowWx said: The cutter is still there..this is the follow up...and I am overthinking it. point taken. 29 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said: It wasn't a cutte, it is just recently "found" but I know where the feeling is coming from. Even minor shifts like the 0z to 12z Euro show take this part of the subforum out of it, part of the deal living to the south of DC but still, it's not exactly exciting, but there's always ice on Sunday or what not, so who knows 32 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said: wasnt this a cutter 2 days ago? The weak wave to our north Friday was a big would up cutter and it was squashing these waves behind it. As soon as guidance realizes no cutter bomb these threats popped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, SnowGolfBro said: It wasn’t long ago the weekend wasn’t even on our radar. I think we need to give this a couple days to simmer before we throw in the towel or start dancing in the streets. Absolutely agree. Let's see what unfolds. I'm not going to be around anyway. I'll be back for the main course Sunday and into next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 HR 180 on the 12z Euro OP is a ridiculous CAD signature...ice storm signal? Large sprawling high pumping NNE air down east of the mountains too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, Stormpc said: Verbatim, the Euro wouldn't even cover our lawns. That wasn't good for us. We wait. that 7" over PSU's house was over mine last run. I realize it a new threat but those fail for us just like the rest. to me anything inside 4 days that moves north or south is a trend especially when other guidance has it. GFS moved from 6z to 12z north. could it move south again sure. but by and large, any movements are usually north not south. My worry is well placed, relevant and applicable for MBY and surrounding locals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: that 7" over PSU's house was over mine last run. I realize it a new threat but those fail for us just like the rest. to me anything inside 4 days that moves north or south is a trend especially when other guidance has it. GFS moved from 6z to 12z north. could it move south again sure. but by and large, any movements are usually north not south. My worry is well placed, relevant and applicable for MBY and surrounding locals. Your concern is warranted but I don't think you need to repeat it 3x in 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 17 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Maps, maps, maps. Please post maps. Text data that looks like it was spit out of a 70's IBM inputted with punch cards doesn't help much, lol. We are bullseyed on both models is all you really need to know. Of course 4 days out that may not be the best place to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 EPS mean looks worse to me. 1” line way up in N. Md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: Your concern is warranted but I don't think you need to repeat it 3x in 20 minutes. thank you. I don't know what came over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: EPS mean looks worse to me. 1” line way up in N. Md. already out?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 We’re within 5 days so weenie handbook says to trust the OP when it shows snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, jaydreb said: We’re within 5 days so weenie handbook says to trust the OP when it shows snow. Control is south. I'll just blend the op and control and drop my shovel off at the shop for a tuneup tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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