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February 12th-14 Redeveloper Nowcast/Obs


Baroclinic Zone

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3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Wonder if KBOS season cracks 5" tonight 

Yep pings arrived in Fenway ~ 6:20pm.

NAM was spot on. HRRR was always 30min-1hr behind in sleet advance. Euro was my reason for the higher 3-6" range in Boston area, but that too was too cold.

RGEM... has been off this season, I didn't give any weight.

And most importantly: 18z GFS still has snow/sleet line at MA/CT border at 0z lol

I will say the RGEM was too far north at 48 hours with the sleet but it was the first model to indicate that mid-level warmth was coming north.  It came south, the NAM family came north, and the GFS still thinks it's cold at H75.  

As usual a blend of everything and SWFE climo (mid-level warmth moves north faster than global models think) seemed to be the right play.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Was hoping for 4-5 but I guess I’ll take 3. Sad weenie. 

Actually thought I'd make 5" for a time because I ripped about 2" of baking powder in the first two hours but the rates then turned kind of crappy between 3-5pm which cost me before ramping up the final 45-60 min prior to flipping. 

Once the sleet is added in it'll clear 4"....still a win in this winter. 

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually thought I'd make 5" for a time because I ripped about 2" of baking powder in the first two hours but the rates then turned kind of crappy between 3-5pm which cost me before ramping up the final 45-60 min prior to flipping. 

Once the sleet is added in it'll clear 4"....still a win in this winter. 

Yeah will get over 3 probably. Still bullshit.

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Interesting stuff in Schenectady.  Very small sleet about like granulated sugar or sand and at the same time very small snow flakes like it was drizzling snow at about 15 degrees in my back yard.  It's been doing this since about 4pm after maybe six inches of snow fell in the afternoon.  I wonder what the air column must be like up there because I get how sleet works but the mix is something that puzzles me.

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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Actually thought I'd make 5" for a time because I ripped about 2" of baking powder in the first two hours but the rates then turned kind of crappy between 3-5pm which cost me before ramping up the final 45-60 min prior to flipping. 

Once the sleet is added in it'll clear 4"....still a win in this winter. 

This should survive interior until the new snow this weekend shouldn’t it? With all this ice in it? 

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7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I will say the RGEM was too far north at 48 hours with the sleet but it was the first model to indicate that mid-level warmth was coming north.  It came south, the NAM family came north, and the GFS still thinks it's cold at H75.  

As usual a blend of everything and SWFE climo (mid-level warmth moves north faster than global models think) seemed to be the right play.

Agree

I think 2 other variables that meh-ed this event, even with H75 advance and timing of sleet changeover as it was:

1) the poor snow growth: it was baking soda just about the entire event... the lift was always significantly displaced from the DGZ... decent dendrites for the past 6 hours and we'd have a different tune in here

2) the initial thump was actually kind of meager: guidance last night was hinting at a more robust thump, ~0.5+ qpf for parts of SNE before a changeover... and then it kind of back off today. It came in like a wall but then was pretty meager the middle 3-4 hours.

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3 minutes ago, Tom12309 said:

Interesting stuff in Schenectady.  Very small sleet about like granulated sugar or sand and at the same time very small snow flakes like it was drizzling snow at about 15 degrees in my back yard.  It's been doing this since about 4pm after maybe six inches of snow fell in the afternoon.  I wonder what the air column must be like up there because I get how sleet works but the mix is something that puzzles me.

The cold layer below the melting layer is cold enough to produce its own small snow crystals. The problem is, there isn’t enough lift in that level to really get any decent snow growth. So you end up with sleet and snow grains. A human observer would code it -PLSG. ASOS is automated so it usually just gets called -SN. I really only see -SG from MWN.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

This should survive interior until the new snow this weekend shouldn’t it? With all this ice in it? 

Probably. Friday will damage it but it doesn't look like nearly enough to melt it out. Could be 45-50 but dews will not be nearly that high. 

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3 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Agree

I think 2 other variables that meh-ed this event, even with H75 advance and timing of sleet changeover as it was:

1) the poor snow growth: it was baking soda just about the entire event... the lift was always significantly displaced from the DGZ... decent dendrites for the past 6 hours and we'd have a different tune in here

2) the initial thump was actually kind of meager: guidance last night was hinting at a more robust thump, ~0.5+ qpf for parts of SNE before a changeover... and then it kind of back off today. It came in like a wall but then was pretty meager the middle 3-4 hours.

1. AWT

2. The NAM had been pretty spot on for 48hrs. I think it was well under .50” QPF as snow for most of SNE.

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