penndotguy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 What are the chances Warnings are dropped at the 4 am update? No way 5-7 is reached at this point 1-3 is a stretch Edit: Warning remains in effect for heavy mixed precip 3-5” for Berks and Lehigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sibbley Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 We'll see pretty soon. DP and RH is dropping here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Underwhelming, fitting to our winter. We'll see what the ice has in store. Will measure around 6am, I would go measure right now but I cant be asked to get out of bed since we canceled work. Hoping the sleet doesn't lead to too much compaction before I measure. I know you're supposed to wipe the board once it starts sleeting. I'd guess another .4 or .5 max. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Played out as expected on Friday and on Saturday with thoughts that wave 1 would turn out being the bigger snow producer of the 2 and largest event of the season for some. I did think we all would get a little more than we are with wave 2 but not looking like we will....sleet line on our doorstep. Worst year for guidance ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sibbley Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Doesn't seem like much change if any at 4AM update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The one thing I have noticed is a pretty substantial drop in my DP/RH over the last hour from 22/52 down to 12/39 Current temp 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: The one thing I have noticed is a pretty substantial drop in my DP/RH over the last hour from 22/52 down to 12/39 Current temp 32 HM mentioned this last night but I didn't think it would be as impactful on this side of the river as it has been. I also remember seeing a couple of model runs (don't remember which) showing a chewed up eastern edge right up until arrival of the sleet essentially, which pretty much all the mesos do show now. I did a weenie discount on them, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I really don't see what Mt Holly sees as far as heavy mixed precip. am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 21 minutes ago, penndotguy said: I really don't see what Mt Holly sees as far as heavy mixed precip. am I missing something? The precip is starting to make it's way east now. Should be here by 7am. The problem which I and anthonyweather talked about earlier was exactly this. The low dews and dry air would eat away at any snowfall we could get overnight. Once precip would start to move in, it would be too late with the warm nose already at our doorstep. I think we should start as snow, but a quick flip to sleet and freezing rain is likely (hope I'm wrong). And I agree with Mount Holly that late morning and mid afternoon should feature some heavy precip, whether that being rain, snow, sleet, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Newman said: The precip is starting to make it's way east now. Should be here by 7am. The problem which I and anthonyweather talked about earlier was exactly this. The low dews and dry air would eat away at any snowfall we could get overnight. Once precip would start to move in, it would be too late with the warm nose already at our doorstep. I think we should start as snow, but a quick flip to sleet and freezing rain is likely (hope I'm wrong). And I agree with Mount Holly that late morning and mid afternoon should feature some heavy precip, whether that being rain, snow, sleet, etc. Yeah I do remember you guys expressed the chance of that happening, when I cleared the snow off my porch it had a crust on it at 4am almost like it was freezing drizzle maybe cause precip was very light? I hope we don't get 3-5" of sleet then freezing rain, ugh rather just have the plain rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Looks like the radar is really blossoming now, it may take a bit to saturate but it shouldn't be long now for precipitation to break out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Yeah I do remember you guys expressed the chance of that happening, when I cleared the snow off my porch it had a crust on it at 4am almost like it was freezing drizzle maybe cause precip was very light? I hope we don't get 3-5" of sleet then freezing rain, ugh rather just have the plain rain But I want to play hockey in my backyard like we did in 07. Also, my total expected rainfall was upped from about a half an inch to about an inch. I wonder how much of that will be ZR, or if we'll change directly from sleet to rain. The heaviest precip is coming right when the switch over to sleet is going to occur so it could be interesting for a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 7 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Yeah I do remember you guys expressed the chance of that happening, when I cleared the snow off my porch it had a crust on it at 4am almost like it was freezing drizzle maybe cause precip was very light? I hope we don't get 3-5" of sleet then freezing rain, ugh rather just have the plain rain I think we will get a heavy slug of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from 7am to about 4 or 5pm when a lull of some sort might come through. Then the backside comes through with plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 12 minutes ago, Newman said: I think we will get a heavy slug of snow, sleet, and freezing rain from 7am to about 4 or 5pm when a lull of some sort might come through. Then the backside comes through with plain rain. Moderate sleet at work in Boyertown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Flurries here. Temp 31 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 mod sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Made it up to 2.7 inches total accumulation in Phoenixville starting Sunday evening. Recorded 0.3 in new snow from midnight to 7am. Just started lightly sleeting here. 2.1in on the ground. FR now, so lame I couldn't work today because NJ issued a state of a emergency and commercial travel ban on most majors. Edit: Sorry my math was off this morning by 0.3 inches, simple addition prior to coffee is a no go. 2.7 inches total in Phoenixville, 1.5 sun to mon, 0.8 mon night, 0.4 Tues morning. Sleet and zr here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Welp sleet and freezing rain now in Boyertown. Temp 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Had cleared the board last night and just measured 0.75" compacted. I am not sure if there was any sleet overnight as part of that accumulation but right now, we have ZR. Current temp is 30 and it has been holding around that temp since just before 11 pm last night. Even though this radar depiction is showing frozen over me, I am getting rain so that warm nose is probably below the radar - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 At 825' here in the Schuylkill County coal region, I have light sleet, so the warm air at the upper levels is already here to the northwest of you guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Newman said: The precip is starting to make it's way east now. Should be here by 7am. The problem which I and anthonyweather talked about earlier was exactly this. The low dews and dry air would eat away at any snowfall we could get overnight. Once precip would start to move in, it would be too late with the warm nose already at our doorstep. I think we should start as snow, but a quick flip to sleet and freezing rain is likely (hope I'm wrong). And I agree with Mount Holly that late morning and mid afternoon should feature some heavy precip, whether that being rain, snow, sleet, etc. Most of us knew this was never really a big snow producing system for the majority of us here. Anthony and I discussed this the other day when the models were showing 8" snow for many yet soundings were really anything BUT snow even up North. The delay in the onset and precip gap which the CRAS nailed basically drove that point home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 7 hours ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Exton averages about 32" a season so maybe a big MECS will be needed! Make it a hecs then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Im around 19" off my avg so need a HECS here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 FWIW while 850mb temps are rising we have and are still seeing drops in the 2m temps across parts of the area. I went from 31 down to 29f now that precip has resumed FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I got a dusting. Great winter. Winter of yore! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Light snow. 30/19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just under 0.5" overnight of additional snow and sleet bringing the storm total up to 3.0" Current Temp is 29.1 ENE wind at 3 gusts to 6 mph with some light ZR with maybe a few sleet pellets mixed in Monthly snowfall stands at 4.3" / Seasonal Snow at 19.0" which is 5.1" below normal - we are at 79% of normal snow through today here in NW Chesco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: FWIW while 850mb temps are rising we have and are still seeing drops in the 2m temps across parts of the area. I went from 31 down to 29f now that precip has resumed FWIW. Yep I went from 27 to 25 now with precip entering. No snow just sleet here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I was hoping for 7” from these 2 events to put me at 20”, seems decent but without November I’m only at 5.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Im around 19" off my avg so need a HECS here. Hi Steve do you mean for your normal seasonal snowfall or normal snowfall through today? What is your seasonal average there? I am up to 19.0" of snow so far this season which is only 5.1" below normal (79%) through today (24.1") but still 17" below our seasonal average snowfall for NW Chesco of 36.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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