February 14th-16th Winter Storm Threat

[Baum]

models have not been that bad 4-5 days out. This is the first instance,that i recollect, it has happend in the mid range this season. They rarely just become nada as this has.

[Malacka11]

39 minutes ago, Baum said:

models have not been that bad 4-5 days out. This is the first instance,that i recollect, it has happend in the mid range this season. They rarely just become nada as this has.

I agree. One of the things I've noticed about this year is that things that appear in the mid range actually happen in some capacity. This storm didn't even "trend" worse- it literally ceased to be modeled. The GEM is the one model that hung onto the idea a little longer.

[RogueWaves]

On 2/10/2019 at 3:13 PM, RogueWaves said:

Thus, something will. go. wrong. (fyp)

 

On 2/11/2019 at 1:45 PM, Baum said:

wow. gone in the span of 24 hours.

 

14 hours ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Unbelievable how bad this has trended. Barely any surface reflection. Develops much further east. Sad day

..sigh.  my regular expression for winter '18-19

[mimillman]

8 hours ago, Angrysummons said:

Basically it was a upper midwest blizzard or nothing just by the wavelengths. The models sinking this southeast and "still" being a blizzard was dumb though and unnecessary sampling because that was basically impossible. Its the kind of model failure that the programmers need bitch slapped across the face. Human failure is as much a problem at times.

I’m sure the “programmers,” who probably have multiple PhDs and could have gone to Wall Street but instead chose to work for the National Weather Service, don’t quite need you to patronize them