Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Haven’t started a thread in years it seems like so figured why not. I am almost more interested in this system over the early week system given the ceiling for this one looks to be much higher with a lot of potential. Model guidance been showing this system for a few days now in some fashion and 0z runs so far took it up a notch. Obviously a lot to work out but the baroclinic zone ahead of this potentially ejecting wave looks very impressive as modeled currently. I did a write up for ISC this past Tuesday about this pattern potentially being very active and snowy so it’s nice to see models latching onto ideas of bigger systems. http://www.illinoisstormchasers.com/forecasts/middle-of-february-could-turn-very-active-with-multiple-snow-systems-potentially-affecting-illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 This one has been amped as all get out on multiple models with a very impressive pressure gradient. Definitely blizzard potential if it looks anything like recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I am somewhat concerned with the amount of moisture on some models being oversold. There's only a short turnaround between the system on Tuesday and the next one arriving late Thursday. I just don't there's enough separation in between them to seriously entertain the idea of a high-end moisture laden system like the GFS and CMC are showing. The lee cyclogenesis with this system is impressive, however, with some models bottoming out in the mid 980s. So even if the moisture is being overdone, this could still be a significant system in the wind department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 35 minutes ago, hlcater said: I am somewhat concerned with the amount of moisture on some models being oversold. There's only a short turnaround between the system on Tuesday and the next one arriving late Thursday. I just don't there's enough separation in between them to seriously entertain the idea of a high-end moisture laden system like the GFS and CMC are showing. The lee cyclogenesis with this system is impressive, however, with some models bottoming out in the mid 980s. So even if the moisture is being overdone, this could still be a significant system in the wind department. I disagree. The cold front sweeps into the GOM early-mid week but it does become wide open for business pretty quickly as the high moves off the SE coast allowing for favorable trajectories. There is an impressive baroclinic zone being modeled, very warm 850s to the south of the front and PWATs well over an inch get into the southern Midwest and dews in the mid 50s advect up the Mississippi River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: I disagree. The cold front sweeps into the GOM early-mid week but it does become wide open for business pretty quickly as the high moves off the SE coast allowing for favorable trajectories. There is an impressive baroclinic zone being modeled, very warm 850s to the south of the front and PWATs well over an inch get into the southern Midwest and dews in the mid 50s advect up the Mississippi River. Not to mention it doesn't dig too deep into the Gulf and the pattern is fairly zonal and progressive. The deepest part of the Gulf goes untouched. If this continues on the north side of the baroclinic zone is going to clean up this month in snow. Every front that gets into the Gulf including the one associated with this system only gets about half way in, then goes back north. The Southern part of the Gulf remains with dp above 70. I would say in a pattern like this if we rolled forward a month would be gangbusters for severe weather. Even at face value I would expect some severe with the next couple of systems across the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 GFS goes BOOM for N IL. Widespread 14”+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 So much time to go but the 12z GFS is save worthy for northern IL and southern WI. What a run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, RCNYILWX said: So much time to go but the 12z GFS is save worthy for northern IL and southern WI. What a run. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Yeah was just gonna mention this is a great look for northern IL on the GFS. #rebuild the glacier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Pivotal and COD 24 hour kuchera snow algorithm output from 12z GFS.Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 ANOTHER 2-incher for mby. The punishment shall continue - wonderful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ams30721us Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 28 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: Yeah was just gonna mention this is a great look for northern IL on the GFS. #rebuild the glacier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I remember as a kid in Toledo watching it down poor rain for hours and then all of a sudden, in the middle of the night, it switched to snow and we picked up 10". I don't remember what the actual storm did, but i'm guessing it was a situation similar to what this one could do. Pulls cold air in as it strengthens going by to one's south. I'm not foretasted to be in that area, but with some changes occurring with other telleconnections suggest this one may trend south as we progress through the week. We shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Haven’t started a thread in years it seems like so figured why not. I am almost more interested in this system over the early week system given the ceiling for this one looks to be much higher with a lot of potential. You the man.Sent from my SM-G935P using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterStorm294 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Euro takes it from STL-LAF-CLE. Nothing like the GFS but there is a narrow band of 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The CMC bottoms out the low at 981mb. The 12z run that is. It's track is a little north of Euro. This system has been looking like a powerhouse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: The CMC bottoms out the low at 981mb. The 12z run that is. It's track is a little north of Euro. This system has been looking like a powerhouse Thus, something will. go. wrong. (fyp) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 GEM nails Southern MI, GFS is rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Well GFS has practically lost the storm. Euro still has it but weaker. GEM still pretty amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
whoosh Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Love this! .... from Izzi ... Quote the Thursday/Friday time frame. Highest confidence aspect of the forecast for this system at this distance is that what the medium range models are showing now should change, possibly multiple times, over the next couple/few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 My apologizes for killing this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 wow. gone in the span of 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I think we should wait at least until the passage of tonight's event before writing this one off entirely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 46 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: My apologizes for killing this event Yea please don't start threads anymore. Lol. Literally went from a powerhouse to nothing. Vaporized. Naturally the system that had good potential for my area. Hoping we will see it trend back in the coming days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/10/2019 at 10:16 AM, SchaumburgStormer said: GFS goes BOOM for N IL. Widespread 14”+ remember when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Unbelievable how bad this has trended. Barely any surface reflection. Develops much further east. Sad day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 hours ago, Baum said: remember when? I thought @Thundersnow12 was going to relive the glory days and start a bitching storm thread. It appears that isn’t happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I thought [mention=266]Thundersnow12[/mention] was going to relive the glory days and start a bitching storm thread. It appears that isn’t happening How I'm hoping it's a case of delayed not denied.Sent from my SM-G960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Not Thunders fault, models have been crap this year outside 24-48 hours. GFS is trying to bring something back the 16th-20th lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 ^ whaddaya mean it's not his fault? When I lose a 12" modeled snowstorm 4 days out I'm always looking for someone to blame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 If it was beyond 10 days I would understand, but a high-end storm at 5 days out shouldn't just go away. Have the models always been this bad or is it something I've just noticed within the last couple years? Still it seems like the only big dogs whether winter, severe or tropical anymore are relative sneak attacks (like Michael for example, about 36 hours before landfall I along with most other weather watchers both amateur and professional thought mid-range Cat 3 was a reasonable ceiling if everything went right for the storm). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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