Animal Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 W storm watch for 5-8 of snow with some sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: probably mostly sleet or even some ZR before a flip to plain rain... I’m still not buying it. We just don’t see prolonged sleet events here at all in these setups 99 out of 100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I’m still not buying it. We just don’t see prolonged sleet events here at all in these setups 99 out of 100 It's either going to be all snow ending as sleet or all rain with some sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Very nice discussion from the NWS-Philly office... National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 356 PM EST Sun Feb 10 2019 NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... High pressure located off the Middle Atlantic coast this afternoon will continue to drift southeastward tonight and Monday. Weak warm advection on the back side of the high is expected to affect our region tonight. Arctic high pressure sliding from Ontario to Quebec should begin to nose down into our area on Monday. Light precipitation approaching from the Ohio River Valley is expected to overspread our region late this evening. We are anticipating light snow in eastern Pennsylvania, and in northern and central New Jersey. Snow, sleet and freezing rain are expected for northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey. The mixed precipitation should change to all rain in the Maryland counties of Talbot and Caroline, the southern half of Delaware and Cape May County in New Jersey toward morning. The precipitation is forecast to end on Monday morning across most of eastern Pennsylvania, and northern and central New Jersey. The light wintry mix should linger during the morning in parts of northeastern Maryland, Delaware and southern New Jersey. As broad low pressure begins to approach from the west, the precipitation will begin to spread back to the north on Monday afternoon, with light snow returning to eastern Pennsylvania, and to northern and central New Jersey. A light wintry mix, favoring rain, should continue in our southern counties. The expected snow totals in the northern half of our forecast area for tonight do not warrant an advisory. We will keep the Winter Weather Advisory in place for the southern half of our region from 1000 PM this evening until noon on Monday. We have expanded the advisory to include the Maryland counties of Talbot and Caroline, and Sussex County, Delaware (except for the beaches) due to the expectation of a light glaze of ice in parts of those counties. Low temperatures for tonight should favor the 20s and lower 30s with a light and variable wind. A northeast wind around 5 to 10 MPH is forecast to develop on Monday. High temperatures will likely be in the 30s. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... This portion of the discussion will focus on the 2nd of the one-two punch. Synoptically...The period starts with a warm front well to our south and high pressure centered well to our north. The front will be attached to a low west of the Mississippi. This low will track northeast and be positioned near the Great Lakes 24 hours later, on Tuesday evening. At this time, a secondary low will develop near the coast of NJ and track northeast Tuesday night. Impacts...This event will cross the Tuesday morning commute as well as the Tuesday evening commute. For the I95 corridor, the morning commute will experience the most impacts. Further north and west, the morning commute will be a snowy one and the evening one could be a mixed bag of snow, ice and freezing rain. Headlines...Winter Storm Watch posted for the southern Poconos and NW NJ to account for both the snow and ice. Snow/sleet amounts...Ranging from 5 to 8 across the Southern Poconos and NW NJ, 3 to 5 across Berks and the Lehigh Valley, then 2 to 4 down to I95. 1 to 2 when you cross the river into NJ and also for northern Delmarva. An inch or less south and east of there. Freezing rain...Tricky here at this point and depends on the strength of the low-level warm nose. For now, have .2/tenths of ice across the Southern Poconos and NW NJ, .1 to .2/tenths across Berks, the Lehigh Valley and Morris County in NJ, a trace to a .1/tenth down to the urban I95 corridor, and then a trace south of there. Cape May county and Sussex county may not see much snow or ice at all. For the Poconos and NW NJ, it`s not out of the realm of possibility of receiving more ice. Some of the forecast soundings over the last two runs have up to .4/tenths. Rain...Not sure the Poconos will ever go over to all rain. The Lehigh Valley and Berks are forecast to change over late Tuesday, and the urban corridor around midday Tuesday. QPF...This is not a weak/dry system. Total QPF, when all said and done will be between 1.00 and 2.00 inches. Where the ptype is mainly liquid, expect minor flooding in the most prone areas. Even across locals that get accumulating snow, moderate to heavy rain is possible after the changeover. Transitions...As stated, the frozen/freezing may never change over across the far north. For the Lehigh Valley, going with all snow Monday night into Tuesday morning and transitioning to all rain Tuesday afternoon. Across the urban and I95 region, going with snow Monday night to a mix by daybreak Tuesday, followed by all rain in the afternoon. The Tuesday morning commute looks nasty for this area. Across the coastal plain and our southern Delmarva zones, going with snow to rain on Monday night. Looks like all rain here Tuesday and Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's either going to be all snow ending as sleet or all rain with some sleet. It’s hard to see the second scenario playing out given the high and how consistently the Euro has been. We aren’t seeing any major warming trend like we did as we approached the last event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I was hoping this would just be all rain, I'd rather have that than a mixed, messy bag of slop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 GFS largely unchanged. A tick back but oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Update from Upton. Way too high but I'd gladly take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Update from Upton. Way too high but I'd gladly take it Agreed that it’s too high. 2-3” for city is about right, 3-5” for NNJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 19 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Update from Upton. Way too high but I'd gladly take it Maybe they’re including sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The new RGEM is showing a mid-level furnace all the way up to Albany. Way different than what the GFS is showing. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=T700&runtime=2019021018&fh=54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, snowman19 said: The new RGEM is showing a mid-level furnace all the way up to Albany. Way different than what the GFS is showing Warmest model out there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new RGEM is showing a mid-level furnace all the way up to Albany. Way different than what the GFS is showing. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=T700&runtime=2019021018&fh=54 1) It's the warmest model right now 2) It's at hour 54 which is at end of it's range 3) Its not a furnace for a large portion of posters north of city. I am right on zero line at 7pm Tuesday after about 6-8 hours(or more) of snow. 4) stop speaking in absolute terms. There is so much that is undetermined at this point with thermal profiles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 20 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said: Maybe they’re including sleet. Seems to be at odds with the Mt Holly discussion RU posted at least near I95 corridor; unless they are expecting an intense 2-4 before a changeover, which they state will happen shortly after dawn....either we sleet all day, which at least one red tagger here doubts, or we go to rain. The only certainty I come away with is that it will rain at some point. This looks like every storm of the early 90's. And there's talk of flooding. ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The setup was nowhere near as good. High wasn’t a one piece anchored high. It was a sprawled our high with the neck positioned too far west across Quebec so you just didn’t get the proper CAD signature. Also the air mass wasn’t as good in place ahead of the storm Exactly I'm a realist and usually lean toward cautiously pessimitic but even I can see this setup is different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Warmest model out there The CMC is tracking the secondary over PA, the other models have it hugging the coast, thats why the CMC takes NYC to 50 while other models keep temps in the mid to upper 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 50 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Update from Upton. Way too high but I'd gladly take it Leaning High but not outlandish, this would be the upper end of the possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: It's either going to be all snow ending as sleet or all rain with some sleet. I don't think it's either of those, definitely going to be snow, sleet and rain but the question is which precip type we get the most of. My guess is rain for the city on SE but I do think this is not a non event on the frozen side during the day on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 35 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new RGEM is showing a mid-level furnace all the way up to Albany. Way different than what the GFS is showing. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=T700&runtime=2019021018&fh=54 It totally blew the MLK storm doing the same thing. I’ve noticed that the RGEM along with the UKMET have been bad this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 38 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: It totally blew the MLK storm doing the same thing. I’ve noticed that the RGEM along with the UKMET have been bad this winter Rgem has nailed the last 2-3 weeks. Was terrible before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/GFS13PA_18z/gfsloop.html#picture I always find these panels good for GFS. Surprised to see almost .6 LE fall before 850 line reaches NYC/LI with even the GFS keeping surface temps in the 30's the entire duration except right along the south shore and eastern LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Radar looks very good for tonight I have no clue how this is going to miss but everything misses this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Radar looks very good for tonight I have no clue how this is going to miss but everything misses this winter. I was thinking the same thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Radar looks very good for tonight I have no clue how this is going to miss but everything misses this winter. Yea it seems that the immediate NYC region and LI (and further up to Boston) have been the real snow losers of this winters pattern with either being cold but too far north due to dry air / confluence or being too warm per the storm track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 This is a 'learning winter', where we all learn humility. Fact is no model set has performed either consistently or reliably this winter, at least for the NYC area. Given that there is plenty of computer power available to throw at these problems, it suggests that there are real shortcomings in the models the forecasts are based on. Hope that the folks at NOAA and elsewhere recognize this and try to rework these fundamentals, because until that happens, things will not improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, etudiant said: This is a 'learning winter', where we all learn humility. Fact is no model set has performed either consistently or reliably this winter, at least for the NYC area. Given that there is plenty of computer power available to throw at these problems, it suggests that there are real shortcomings in the models the forecasts are based on. Hope that the folks at NOAA and elsewhere recognize this and try to rework these fundamentals, because until that happens, things will not improve. The 80's were " learning winters"...we learned how to survive with almost no snow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinRP37 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, etudiant said: This is a 'learning winter', where we all learn humility. Fact is no model set has performed either consistently or reliably this winter, at least for the NYC area. Given that there is plenty of computer power available to throw at these problems, it suggests that there are real shortcomings in the models the forecasts are based on. Hope that the folks at NOAA and elsewhere recognize this and try to rework these fundamentals, because until that happens, things will not improve. This isn’t a static system. People think that the models are ‘static’. You build them and they work. That’s not the case. They are always changing and improving. The problem is the environment is also always changing. It is is like trying to hit a bulleye when the dart board is moving. The further you stand from that dartboard represents the longer range, meaning it is very hard. They will definitely use all seasons as learning experiences to improve the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 15 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Radar looks very good for tonight I have no clue how this is going to miss but everything misses this winter. Meteorologist Jeff Smith did mention the snow struggling to get into our region due to dry air. Maybe we'll be pleasantly surprised overnight. I'm so snow starved I would sign up for an inch. How depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 24 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Radar looks very good for tonight I have no clue how this is going to miss but everything misses this winter. There’s enough confluence to squash the whole thing south and weaken it as it comes east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: There’s enough confluence to squash the whole thing south and weaken it as it comes east Confluence, WAA, no blocking, if it ain't one thing it's another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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