SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, Snow88 said: And Nam now is also cold The lakes cutter is too far west to cause a big warm-up here like we usually see with lakes cutters. The high up north is causing CAD in our area which all the models are seeing now. You know it's a strong high when the primary goes to the lakes but our surface temps stay in the low to mid 30s. That's gonna be an icy mess for a lot of places. Snow wise, 2-4" is most probable before an icy changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You know it's a strong high when the primary goes to the lakes but our surface temps stay in the low to mid 30s. That's gonna be an icy mess for a lot of places. Snow wise, 2-4" is most probable before an icy changeover. 12Z NAM has the HP strengthening and holding in place once the precip arrives in the Metro keeping the precip frozen through much of Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: Latest NAM P-types for EWR http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NJ&stn=KEWR&model=nam&time=current&field=prec Seems like its mostly rain for Newark NJ, which usually indicates rain for LI--Having a difficult time believing even 2 inches of snow before changeover. Seems like a CYA situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 GFS is colder again. NYC will receive 4" that high means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: GFS is colder again. NYC will receive 4" that high means business. 44 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: You know it's a strong high when the primary goes to the lakes but our surface temps stay in the low to mid 30s. That's gonna be an icy mess for a lot of places. Snow wise, 2-4" is most probable before an icy changeover. 31 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Seems like its mostly rain for Newark NJ, which usually indicates rain for LI--Having a difficult time believing even 2 inches of snow before changeover. Seems like a CYA situation Think as always this will be very location dependent, My early call right now would be 2-4 for the city/North Shore of LI followed by a little sleet and then a lot of rain South Shore of LI would get less NW of the city will see more front end snow and longer duration of sleet/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Think as always this will be very location dependent, My early call right now would be 2-4 for the city/North Shore of LI followed by a little sleet and then a lot of rain South Shore of LI would get less NW of the city will see more front end snow and longer duration of sleet/ZR. I agree with this assessment, I’m just skeptical of the call for 2-4 inches before the changeover occurs. I’ve seen this movie many times Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I agree with this assessment, I’m just skeptical of the call for 2-4 inches before the changeover occurs. I’ve seen this movie many times Yea and the movie is always a bit unpredictable, sometimes these overperform aka November and sometimes they underperform and the changeover is faster than expected. This doesn';t look like the best setup i've seen for a front end dump but it's far from the worst either, it's actually a far better setup than the recent January storm was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 12 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: I agree with this assessment, I’m just skeptical of the call for 2-4 inches before the changeover occurs. I’ve seen this movie many times Plenty of times it's a better dump on the front end too, goes both ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 52 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: Seems like its mostly rain for Newark NJ, which usually indicates rain for LI--Having a difficult time believing even 2 inches of snow before changeover. Seems like a CYA situation That model run surely doesn’t show mostly rain.... it’s 50/50 frozen and liquid.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 CMC flips everyone to sleet very fast, little snow, lots of sleet for the metro before the rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 28 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: GFS is colder again. NYC will receive 4" that high means business. Thump of snow to icy mess to heavy rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: CMC flips everyone to sleet very fast, little snow, lots of sleet for the metro before the rain This was the coldest model before the other models caught on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: This was the coldest model before the other models caught on. Yea it's now one of the warmest and I can see why it has the secondary tracking through PA while the others have it hugging the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: GFS is colder again. NYC will receive 4" that high means business. Putting my cold/snow bias aside, these CAD setups are a pain in the *ss to forecast. They are often full of surprises. Looking at the colder trends in the past 24 hours has my attention, especially the EURO who usually has a warm thermal bias. That's a big red flag. I believe chances have increased for a mid November winter storm redux with mostly a snow to sleet scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The winter of messy CADs continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 hours ago, 495weatherguy said: Seems like its mostly rain for Newark NJ, which usually indicates rain for LI--Having a difficult time believing even 2 inches of snow before changeover. Seems like a CYA situation Thats the model output, there is no cya situation in computer models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Putting my cold/snow bias aside, these CAD setups are a pain in the *ss to forecast. They are often full of surprises. Looking at the colder trends in the past 24 hours has my attention, especially the EURO who usually has a warm thermal bias. That's a big red flag. I believe chances have increased for a mid November winter storm redux with mostly a snow to sleet scenario. Again depends where, I agree NW of the city. The climo even in Northern NJ is totally different than NYC/LI in these setups Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 34 minutes ago, allgame830 said: That model run surely doesn’t show mostly rain.... it’s 50/50 frozen and liquid.... 1.52 total /.77 rain? I’m not a math major-seems like more than half to me. Unless I’m missing something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 59 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: CMC flips everyone to sleet very fast, little snow, lots of sleet for the metro before the rain That's possible, the only thing preventing a rainy cutter is that high to our N/NE. My worry is surface temps, models almost always go warmer than what actually occurs. Nam does well here. Also if we get some snow from the first wave tomorrow then it'll lead to a colder surface, that may be why the Nam is so much colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 please don't tell me this storm has a pet name attached to it.......ffs cheap snow pies for the metro that ain't gunna git it done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said: 1.52 total /.77 rain? I’m not a math major-seems like more than half to me. Unless I’m missing something Now your being nit picky that’s .77 rain and .72 frozen... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 12Z GFS FWIW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Doorman said: please don't tell me this storm has a pet name attached to it.......ffs cheap snow pies for the metro that ain't gunna git it done What are you exactly looking for ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 7 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: 12Z GFS FWIW How much of that is sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What are you exactly looking for ? Ant... two clusters for a secondary at 72hrs and the north + west cluster pack on the great lakes low get your umbrella handy!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, Doorman said: Ant... two clusters for a secondary at 72hrs and the north + west cluster pack on the great lakes low get your umbrella handy!!!!! Gotcha The whole storm isn't going to be rain. Ukie got colder again at 12z. Tuesday is cold and doesn't rain until at night now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Guys it's sleet to rain, stop with the snow maps. Less than an inch of snow for NYC then sleet and rain. It's a nothing burger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Guys it's sleet to rain, stop with the snow maps. Less than an inch of snow for NYC then sleet and rain. It's a nothing burger You should let upton know, they are forecasting numbers similar to what’s being discussed here. A couple of inches in the metro actually would be notable given what’s transpired this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Guys it's sleet to rain, stop with the snow maps. Less than an inch of snow for NYC then sleet and rain. It's a nothing burger There are many posters who don't live in the city and Long Island and will have a significant snow/sleet/ZR event, especially us north of 84, so continue with those snow maps guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Guys it's sleet to rain, stop with the snow maps. Less than an inch of snow for NYC then sleet and rain. It's a nothing burger LOL Great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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