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February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat


NEG NAO

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14 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

my snow amounts were bang on, low level cold was a tad more impressive than i thought but the end result is the same.  NYC will be raining by 7pm.  My thoughts on mid level warmth severely reducing the snow to a 1-2 hr period was bang on.  

NYC with absolutely not be raining by 7 not here on the Nw side not even close. Moderate sleet/snow continues

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000
NOUS41 KOKX 121951
PNSOKX
CTZ005>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ067>075-078>081-176>179-130751-

Public Information Statement
Spotter Reports
National Weather Service New York NY
251 PM EST Tue Feb 12 2019

The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 10
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to highway departments, cooperative observers, Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary also is available
on our home page at weather.gov/nyc

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION          STORM TOTAL     TIME/DATE   COMMENTS
                     SNOWFALL           OF
                     /INCHES/   MEASUREMENT

CONNECTICUT

...Fairfield County...
   Danbury                2.5   115 PM  2/12  Public
   Bethel                 2.5   130 PM  2/12  Social Media
   New Canaan             1.7   220 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Bridgeport Airport     1.5   100 PM  2/12  Co-Op Observer

...New Haven County...
   North Haven            2.5   235 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   West Haven             2.1   130 PM  2/12  Public
   Seymour                2.0   125 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Guilford               2.0   130 PM  2/12  Co-Op Observer

...New London County...
   Ledyard Center         1.5   230 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   New London             1.0   230 PM  2/12  CoCoRaHS

NEW JERSEY

...Bergen County...
   Ridgewood              1.3   100 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Franklin Lakes         1.1   100 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   East Rutherford        0.5  1130 AM  2/12  Trained Spotter

...Essex County...
   Cedar Grove            1.6   130 PM  2/12  Public

...Hudson County...
   Hoboken                1.0   100 PM  2/12  Public
   Harrison               0.5   230 PM  2/12  Co-Op Observer

...Union County...
   Newark Airport         1.2   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer

NEW YORK

...Kings County...
   1 SSW Bergen Beach     1.0  1245 PM  2/12  NYC OEM CERT

...New York County...
   Central Park           1.0   200 PM  2/12  Park Conservancy

...Orange County...
   New Windsor            2.4   130 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Monroe                 2.0  1237 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter

...Queens County...
   Rego Park              1.0   130 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   NYC/LaGuardia Airpor   0.8   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer
   NYC/JFK Airport        0.8   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer

...Suffolk County...
   Mattituck              2.5   130 PM  2/12  Trained Spotter
   Ridge                  2.0   135 PM  2/12  Social Media
   Upton                  1.4   100 PM  2/12  NWS Office
   Yaphank                1.3   125 PM  2/12  Public
   Islip Airport          1.2   100 PM  2/12  FAA Observer
   Babylon                1.0  1200 PM  2/12  Social Media
   Central Islip          0.5   130 PM  2/12  Social Media

...Westchester County...
   Larchmont              1.3   150 PM  2/12  Public

&&
 

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33 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

^ Boy I hope you're wrong about that ZR. This exceptionally dense 3" thick layer of sleet and snow will freeze up hard if that happens.

You hope you can hang onto sleet a bit longer, but it's gonna take a while to scour this low level cold out. 

 

Skew T's on the HRRR have the 900mb level over freezing by 6pm in the city.   I unfortunately think this looks a period of like ZR Hudson Valley and interior CT.  Shorter for the coast (as in not too much of an issue), could be a few hrs interior. 

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Just now, bluewave said:

The best quality snowstorms were in a very short window from April 82 to Feb 83. 

Something I was looking at earlier- all our hyper rainfall years seem to have been followed by lackluster snowfall seasons.

 

2011-12 and 1983-84 before that.  And the previous record holder was in the early 70s when we had some very small snowfall winters too.

 

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I also thought most outlets forecasted this well.  Upton was in CYA mode in the event the WAA was slower.

 

Accuweather, zero clue why they decided precip was gonna come in early.  That 8-10 window had been pretty consistent on guidance yday.

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