shadowsintherain Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Roads in Copiague/Amityville/Massapequa area are a MESS. Sleeting now. Had snow and sleet mixed for a while there. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1036 mb highs tend to be stubborn to give up their cold air at the sfc. So far, nothing telling me we see most of Manhattan north go above freezing anytime soon. You'll see some occasional bursts of snow but this is a sleet dominant storm and will remain so. Think theres a period of ZR this evening, but the warm nose is elevated enough that this *should* mostly be sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
justinj Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just drove from Holbrook to Smithtown. Roads a mess saw one truck overturned. Stay safe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 52 minutes ago, jr461 said: Since areas to the south are unexpectedly mixing with and switching to snow, is that a good sign that freezing rain is not imminent (yet)? It would seem that the upper level warming has not penetrated enough layers yet given the widespread sleet and now snow again in central NJ. Thanks I dont know how unexpected it is. The warm nose is between 825-700 for the most part. That's about right. Think sleet is the predominant p type, but the further south you go, the quicker the waa in the 850-925 layer, so higher risk for a period of zr before plain rain this evening/overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Getting somewhat concerned as all wunderground stations for my area are between 22-23...that cannot be good for the ride home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, justinj said: Just drove from Holbrook to Smithtown. Roads a mess saw one truck overturned. Stay safe People tend to underestimate sleet. It's nothing to be trifled with. It was coming down so hard in New Brunswick earlier visibility was affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Hrrr has trended a few degrees colder the last few runs. Freezing rain north of the city is a real possibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, NycStormChaser said: Hrrr has trended a few degrees colder the last few runs. Freezing rain north of the city is a real possibility Maybe they can hold onto the sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: Just changed back to snow here around 1 pm - wow, did not expect that! Coming down moderately. As of 1 pm, we're up to 1/2" of "new" sleet (with a little snow) and the other table has 1 and 1/4" on it, as it should. Still 27F. It's been alternating between snow and sleet and a mix and coming down moderately. As of 2 pm, we're up to 3/4" of "new" sleet (with some snow) and the other table has 1.5" on it, as it should (had 3/4" of pure snow until 10 am). Up to 28F from 27F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: Hrrr has trended a few degrees colder the last few runs. Freezing rain north of the city is a real possibility 5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: Maybe they can hold onto the sleet. I sure hope so. It's been pounding sleet here for 90 minutes now and was a sleet/snow mix for about that long before and all snow before that. There's now a bit less than 3" of slurry that sux to even walk in. It's 18* so if it did flip to frzg rain everything will turn into a solid block of ugliness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Sleet falling here, around 1.5"-2.0" of accumulation. Current temp 29/DP 26/RH 91% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jr461 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 25 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: I dont know how unexpected it is. The warm nose is between 825-700 for the most part. That's about right. Think sleet is the predominant p type, but the further south you go, the quicker the waa in the 850-925 layer, so higher risk for a period of zr before plain rain this evening/overnight. Thanks, glad to hear that. Zr is my (and many others) biggest concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Take a look at the traffic graphic So, while this storm has clearly been a bust for many for pure snowfall amounts, the sleet has been hellacious and now looks like it might hold on past the 3-4 pm expected changeover to rain, at least for much of the 95 corridor NE of maybe Princeton. HRRR doesn't have the NB-NYC corridor out of the sleet until 5-6 pm for NB/Edison and until 7-8 pm in NYC and show at least a couple of hours of possible freezing rain (but very hard to predict that accurately) before maybe 1/2" of plain rain. While most folks in the 95 corridor and outside of the warned counties in the area probably only got 1" or less of pure snow, most of these folks have likely gotten about an inch of sleet, so far (3.3" of "snow equivalent for a total of 4+" of snow equivalent so far). As I've said a few times, sleet's impact is likely to be similar to snow's, as we're getting the same mass and impact is largely based on mass (for plowing/shoveling/driving; visibility is worse in snow), plus sleet melts more slowly than snow and so salt is less effective on it. Not surprisingly, roads are a mess, area wide, as per the map and only a mess north of 276/195, where the snow/sleet has fallen (and not S of there where it's been mostly rain). So maybe a bust for "pure snow" but not a bust at all for impact. IMO and the "nothing burger" crowd needs to admit defeat. And it will likely get even worse, especially if we top things off with some ZR. https://twitter.com/nymetrowx/status/1095385429078142978/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1095385429078142978&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fnymetrowx%2Fstatus%2F1095385429078142978 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Totals so far CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... Danbury 2.5 115 PM 2/12 Public Bethel 2.5 130 PM 2/12 Social Media New Canaan 1.7 220 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Bridgeport Airport 1.5 100 PM 2/12 Co-Op Observer ...New Haven County... North Haven 2.5 235 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter West Haven 2.1 130 PM 2/12 Public Seymour 2.0 125 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Guilford 2.0 130 PM 2/12 Co-Op Observer ...New London County... Ledyard Center 1.5 230 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter New London 1.0 230 PM 2/12 CoCoRaHS NEW JERSEY ...Bergen County... Ridgewood 1.3 100 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Franklin Lakes 1.1 100 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter East Rutherford 0.5 1130 AM 2/12 Trained Spotter ...Essex County... Cedar Grove 1.6 130 PM 2/12 Public ...Hudson County... Hoboken 1.0 100 PM 2/12 Public Harrison 0.5 230 PM 2/12 Co-Op Observer ...Union County... Newark Airport 1.2 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer NEW YORK ...Kings County... 1 SSW Bergen Beach 1.0 1245 PM 2/12 NYC OEM CERT ...New York County... Central Park 1.0 200 PM 2/12 Park Conservancy ...Orange County... New Windsor 2.4 130 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Monroe 2.0 1237 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter ...Queens County... Rego Park 1.0 130 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter NYC/LaGuardia Airpor 0.8 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer NYC/JFK Airport 0.8 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer ...Suffolk County... Mattituck 2.5 130 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Ridge 2.0 135 PM 2/12 Social Media Upton 1.4 100 PM 2/12 NWS Office Yaphank 1.3 125 PM 2/12 Public Islip Airport 1.2 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer Babylon 1.0 1200 PM 2/12 Social Media Central Islip 0.5 130 PM 2/12 Social Media ...Westchester County... Larchmont 1.3 150 PM 2/12 Public Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Take a look at the traffic graphic So, while this storm has clearly been a bust for many for pure snowfall amounts, the sleet has been hellacious and now looks like it might hold on past the 3-4 pm expected changeover to rain, at least for much of the 95 corridor NE of maybe Princeton. HRRR doesn't have the NB-NYC corridor out of the sleet until 5-6 pm for NB/Edison and until 7-8 pm in NYC and show at least a couple of hours of possible freezing rain (but very hard to predict that accurately) before maybe 1/2" of plain rain. While most folks in the 95 corridor and outside of the warned counties in the area probably only got 1" or less of pure snow, most of these folks have likely gotten about an inch of sleet, so far (3.3" of "snow equivalent for a total of 4+" of snow equivalent so far). As I've said a few times, sleet's impact is likely to be similar to snow's, as we're getting the same mass and impact is largely based on mass (for plowing/shoveling/driving; visibility is worse in snow), plus sleet melts more slowly than snow and so salt is less effective on it. Not surprisingly, roads are a mess, area wide, as per the map and only a mess north of 276/195, where the snow/sleet has fallen (and not S of there where it's been mostly rain). So maybe a bust for "pure snow" but not a bust at all for impact. IMO and the "nothing burger" crowd needs to admit defeat. And it will likely get even worse, especially if we top things off with some ZR. https://twitter.com/nymetrowx/status/1095385429078142978/photo/1?ref_src=twsrc^tfw|twcamp^tweetembed|twterm^1095385429078142978&ref_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.33andrain.com%2Findex.php%3Fapp%3Dcore%26module%3Dsystem%26controller%3Dembed%26url%3Dhttps%3A%2F%2Ftwitter.com%2Fnymetrowx%2Fstatus%2F1095385429078142978 It was quite bad earlier in New Brunswick but the salters were out and the Rutgers grounds people were keeping on top of things. My concern is the classes that end in the evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 45 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: 1036 mb highs tend to be stubborn to give up their cold air at the sfc. So far, nothing telling me we see most of Manhattan north go above freezing anytime soon. You'll see some occasional bursts of snow but this is a sleet dominant storm and will remain so. Think theres a period of ZR this evening, but the warm nose is elevated enough that this *should* mostly be sleet. Models usually get cad wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 hours ago, RU848789 said: Are you there? Have heard only reports of snow/sleet from northern Mercer. Just now, Stormlover74 said: Totals so far CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... Danbury 2.5 115 PM 2/12 Public Bethel 2.5 130 PM 2/12 Social Media New Canaan 1.7 220 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Bridgeport Airport 1.5 100 PM 2/12 Co-Op Observer ...New Haven County... North Haven 2.5 235 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter West Haven 2.1 130 PM 2/12 Public Seymour 2.0 125 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Guilford 2.0 130 PM 2/12 Co-Op Observer ...New London County... Ledyard Center 1.5 230 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter New London 1.0 230 PM 2/12 CoCoRaHS NEW JERSEY ...Bergen County... Ridgewood 1.3 100 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Franklin Lakes 1.1 100 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter East Rutherford 0.5 1130 AM 2/12 Trained Spotter ...Essex County... Cedar Grove 1.6 130 PM 2/12 Public ...Hudson County... Hoboken 1.0 100 PM 2/12 Public Harrison 0.5 230 PM 2/12 Co-Op Observer ...Union County... Newark Airport 1.2 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer NEW YORK ...Kings County... 1 SSW Bergen Beach 1.0 1245 PM 2/12 NYC OEM CERT ...New York County... Central Park 1.0 200 PM 2/12 Park Conservancy ...Orange County... New Windsor 2.4 130 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Monroe 2.0 1237 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter ...Queens County... Rego Park 1.0 130 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter NYC/LaGuardia Airpor 0.8 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer NYC/JFK Airport 0.8 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer ...Suffolk County... Mattituck 2.5 130 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Ridge 2.0 135 PM 2/12 Social Media Upton 1.4 100 PM 2/12 NWS Office Yaphank 1.3 125 PM 2/12 Public Islip Airport 1.2 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer Babylon 1.0 1200 PM 2/12 Social Media Central Islip 0.5 130 PM 2/12 Social Media ...Westchester County... Larchmont 1.3 150 PM 2/12 Public I was wrong on this storm----I predicted a changeover to rain early--instead it went to sleet and stayed as sleet. Probably about .5 inch snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, weatherpruf said: It was quite bad earlier in New Brunswick but the salters were out and the Rutgers grounds people were keeping on top of things. My concern is the classes that end in the evening. As time goes on conditions should improve with the lull, warmth, and subsequent washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Staten Island up to 29/28. Precip has been fairly light the past hour but appears a heavier burst is moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Live drive Adirondacks to Westchester Snow began at Glens Falls Heavy snow in Capital Region Sleet mxing at Windham All sleet at Saugerties Road conditions bad north of Saugerties Much improved with sleet 4-5 inches on grnd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, jfklganyc said: Live drive Adirondacks to Westchester Snow began at Glens Falls Heavy snow in Capital Region Sleet mxing at Windham All sleet at Saugerties Road conditions bad north of Saugerties Much improved with sleet How can you say with a clear conscious that roads are much improved with sleet... LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Temps slowly creeping up. 30 at my station in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn. Was 27 earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I did not take a measurement but my kid just did our driveway,,,,best guess is New City actually has over 3 inches and it has been sleeting for a while now. 25 degrees here as I type Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, allgame830 said: How can you say with a clear conscious that roads are much improved with sleet... LOL Because they are! They were awful north of Albany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mark McIntyre Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, weathermedic said: Temps slowly creeping up. 30 at my station in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn. Was 27 earlier. Yep slowly on the rise. Looks like SI bottomed out at 25.8°F at 10:10AM. MesoNet site says 0.39" LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 20 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Totals so far CONNECTICUT ...Fairfield County... Danbury 2.5 115 PM 2/12 Public Bethel 2.5 130 PM 2/12 Social Media New Canaan 1.7 220 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Bridgeport Airport 1.5 100 PM 2/12 Co-Op Observer ...New Haven County... North Haven 2.5 235 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter West Haven 2.1 130 PM 2/12 Public Seymour 2.0 125 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Guilford 2.0 130 PM 2/12 Co-Op Observer ...New London County... Ledyard Center 1.5 230 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter New London 1.0 230 PM 2/12 CoCoRaHS NEW JERSEY ...Bergen County... Ridgewood 1.3 100 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Franklin Lakes 1.1 100 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter East Rutherford 0.5 1130 AM 2/12 Trained Spotter ...Essex County... Cedar Grove 1.6 130 PM 2/12 Public ...Hudson County... Hoboken 1.0 100 PM 2/12 Public Harrison 0.5 230 PM 2/12 Co-Op Observer ...Union County... Newark Airport 1.2 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer NEW YORK ...Kings County... 1 SSW Bergen Beach 1.0 1245 PM 2/12 NYC OEM CERT ...New York County... Central Park 1.0 200 PM 2/12 Park Conservancy ...Orange County... New Windsor 2.4 130 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Monroe 2.0 1237 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter ...Queens County... Rego Park 1.0 130 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter NYC/LaGuardia Airpor 0.8 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer NYC/JFK Airport 0.8 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer ...Suffolk County... Mattituck 2.5 130 PM 2/12 Trained Spotter Ridge 2.0 135 PM 2/12 Social Media Upton 1.4 100 PM 2/12 NWS Office Yaphank 1.3 125 PM 2/12 Public Islip Airport 1.2 100 PM 2/12 FAA Observer Babylon 1.0 1200 PM 2/12 Social Media Central Islip 0.5 130 PM 2/12 Social Media ...Westchester County... Larchmont 1.3 150 PM 2/12 Public 1 inch for the park. .8 for the aiports, upton on twitter this morning had 3-6. Also had 5 inches at White Plains this MORNING. These totals are spot on what I predicted on Sunday. I mean its not even close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 https://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html link to hourly obs at knyc, where zero plain rain has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 If, like me, you haven't been paying attention to the medium term, due to today's storm, take a look at the Feb thread. You'll thank me. Just about all of today's 12Z global models (including the Euro) show multiple winter weather threats on the table for 2/16 and 2/20 (and beyond). The 2/16 system isn't that far off, either (potential 2-4/3-5" event). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 19 minutes ago, allgame830 said: How can you say with a clear conscious that roads are much improved with sleet... LOL Sleet is definitely grippier than many forms of snow. The difference might be lost on people with no clue how to drive on anything frozen, but sleet is easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: It's been alternating between snow and sleet and a mix and coming down moderately. As of 2 pm, we're up to 3/4" of "new" sleet (with some snow) and the other table has 1.5" on it, as it should (had 3/4" of pure snow until 10 am). Up to 28F from 27F. Not much the last hour or so. Up to a total of 1.6" of snow/sleet from 1.5" an hour ago, but heavy precip is on our doorstep. Should still be sleet, I believe, but temps are up to 29F now and 32F temps are only about 15 miles from us now, so it's possible we'll get to 32F in the next couple of hours. It's also possible we'll have some freezing rain before then. The only saving grace there is that it wouldn't be accumulating on bare ground/pavement for the most part, so would hopefully not become a sheet of ice if it fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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