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February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat


NEG NAO

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Anyone know how the highways look from Rockland County down to Staten Island? I know, I know, I can Google it... but you, O Wise Weather Folk, can also tell me how bad it'll be on the way back with way more validity than anyone else

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Just now, nycemt123 said:

Anyone know how the highways look from Rockland County down to Staten Island? I know, I know, I can Google it... but you, O Wise Weather Folk, can also tell me how bad it'll be on the way back with way more validity than anyone else emoji4.pngemoji120.png

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I have a friend on his way home now from NYC to Monroe will call and check for u

 

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Just now, mikeysed said:

lol another dusting on the winter... sleet for 20 min in southern morris county. So many stores said 3-6 inches and it does a dusting and then sleet/ZR

midlevels almost always warm faster than modeled, not sure why official forecasters always miss this. However if we get enough hours of heavy sleet we could still see 2 or 3" 

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1 minute ago, nycemt123 said:

Thanks, Allgame! And that's why I'm gonna stick to Thruway/NJTPK emoji6.png

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https://www.lohud.com/story/news/traffic/2018/09/18/traffic-cameras-westchester-rockland/1305656002/

 

Even the thruway looks to be snow covered.... I have to travel back from the Bronx to Hawthorne NY once my day of work is done.  I don't leave until 5pm.  Thinking about possibly leaving early.

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Down to 19 now and the DP still at 12 .... yea this certainly was not forecasted in the least.... 

 

For all the folks saying this would be nothing for the area need to step back and look at the recent past with storms like this.  I understand not one storm is the same as another but we have seen this play out so many times in the past.  I believe there is a good chance that the northern boroughs don't even get to 32 before its too late just hope it stays sleet and not freezing rain.  For places 20 miles north of the CITY are really in for it in my opinion.

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Sorry if already posted (hard to keep up), but The mesoscale, short-term models are showing significant freezing rain risks for much of the area.  The HRRR and CMC-RDPS are both showing about 0.1" of freezing rain for the 95 corridor NE of Trenton (and NW of Philly) and are showing a lot more than that NW of there, i.e., up to 0.5", which would be horrendous if it verified. Nobody wants to see that, but folks should be aware of this risk. NAM is showing the freezing rain risk to be NW of 95, not along it, at least in NJ. Maps below. 



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Just now, RU848789 said:

Sorry if already posted (hard to keep up), but The mesoscale, short-term models are showing significant freezing rain risks for much of the area.  The HRRR and CMC-RDPS are both showing about 0.1" of freezing rain for the 95 corridor NE of Trenton (and NW of Philly) and are showing a lot more than that NW of there, i.e., up to 0.5", which would be horrendous if it verified. Nobody wants to see that, but folks should be aware of this risk. NAM is showing the freezing rain risk to be NW of 95, not along it, at least in NJ. Maps below. 



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Yes that's a big problem if it happened... basically just what i said in my post above.  

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8 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

midlevels almost always warm faster than modeled, not sure why official forecasters always miss this. However if we get enough hours of heavy sleet we could still see 2 or 3" 

Well we aren't even getting heavy sleet....I'm getting light sleet and it looks like things may even be breaking up. Dry air intrusion? SUbsidence? Someone needs to look into why NE Middlesex Co always seems to be in the subsidence/ dry air zone. This would definitely be called a dusting when I was a kid.

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1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Sorry if already posted (hard to keep up), but The mesoscale, short-term models are showing significant freezing rain risks for much of the area.  The HRRR and CMC-RDPS are both showing about 0.1" of freezing rain for the 95 corridor NE of Trenton (and NW of Philly) and are showing a lot more than that NW of there, i.e., up to 0.5", which would be horrendous if it verified. Nobody wants to see that, but folks should be aware of this risk. NAM is showing the freezing rain risk to be NW of 95, not along it, at least in NJ. Maps below. 



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Yikes, given SI is still at 26°F, the icing potential seems pretty high :yikes:

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