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February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat


NEG NAO

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2 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said:

This has bust written all over it...it looks like an inch of snow followed by an inch of sleet with heavy rain by 4-5pm. 

I’ve been following the models closely and yea the UKIE and EURO showed more recently but not that much, and the mesos have been insisting for 2 days now that we wouldn’t see more than a few inches in the metro area before the changeover to sleet or rain.

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7 minutes ago, romba said:

 

I’ve been following the models closely and yea the UKIE and EURO showed more recently but not that much, and the mesos have been insisting for 2 days now that we wouldn’t see more than a few inches in the metro area before the changeover to sleet or rain.

Global models have become fairly useless in this borderline events. They are great for track and intensity and when there's plenty of cold air in place they can do well in snowstorms but when 1 degree C is all the difference in the world they can really struggle

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16 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

so instead of 3" you'll get 2"? oh my the horror!

i don't think we're gonna make it to 2. We lost too much time overnight. My expectations were low to begin with. If the sleet holds on we may get up to 2 that way, but it could change quicker. Hard for people to make work or school plans in these types of events. If they end up like Nov you're screwed. I am lucky to not have to drive in this.

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3 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

i don't think we're gonna make it to 2. We lost too much time overnight. My expectations were low to begin with. If the sleet holds on we may get up to 2 that way, but it could change quicker. Hard for people to make work or school plans in these types of events. If they end up like Nov you're screwed. I am lucky to not have to drive in this.

If we get enough hours of heavy sleet we might make 2

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2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

The nam seems to be frozen through about 4 or 5:00 at least but its rain just south of us, so it'll be close

Actually if you look at some of the maps, there's a little hole where it rains early in easters Middlesex County. That's my house. And I believe it, cause I always have a little less than areas nearby.

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