February 11 -12 Winter Storm Threat

[snowman19]

The NAM is insistent, run after run that there is minimal snow Tuesday, it shows an inch for most of the region, then a sleet fest before rain. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019020918&fh=84

 

 

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[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, RU848789 said:

Does anyone here know if the TrueWeather UK snow maps or the various Euro snow maps we see (StormVista usually), which report "snow" are truly all snow, like the Pivotal maps, or if they're actually combined snow/sleet at a 10:1 ratio for everything frozen, like the Tidbits maps are?  Would be nice to know, since I've seen people debating it and I'm not sure they know for sure.  

@SnowGoose69 @purduewx80 @forkyfork or others who might know for sure?  Thanks, in advance...

I want to say only those direct from ECMWF maps don’t include sleet.  DT often posts them though I’m not sure he’s actually supposed to.  They have odd ball color schemes ranging from like dark green to gray

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM is insistent, run after run that there is minimal snow Tuesday it shows an inch for most of the region, then a sleet fest before rain. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019020918&fh=84

 

 

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The NAM appears out to lunch on this event.  It has the CAD but it generates zero precip.  It’s hard to go against the EPS and Euro at 72-84 

[nightknights]

57 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I know someone who took a look at events like this and said sleet duration over 1 hour generally only occurs in events where NYC never changes to rain.  In events where they go over it only happens around 10% of the time.  I believe the February 2014 storm where parts of Queens and WRN LI saw 4-5 inch per hour rates was the last case I remember of long duration sleet and I believe NYC never went over to rain in that storm  

I forget how long ago but we had 5-7 inches of sleet in Nutley area couldnt drive to work with AWD CRV the sleet was swallowing my tires and could not plow thru it had to turn around definitely last 5 yrs or so

[justinj]

What is Long Island looking at especially central Suffolk 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, nightknights said:

I forget how long ago but we had 5-7 inches of sleet in Nutley area couldnt drive to work with AWD CRV the sleet was swallowing my tires and could not plow thru it had to turn around definitely last 5 yrs or so

Likely march 2017, another busted snow apocalypse. 18-24 called for, 3-6 of sleet instead. If they can't get the right frozen amounts in a storm that huge, how can we expect them to do much in an unfavorable situation like this one? 

[SnowGoose69]

25 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam shifted south with wave 1. Starting to think it's a dusting to 1" kind of event

There appears to be just enough confluence to kill that event.  If we had a bit more breathing room for the disturbance I think we could have pulled off a solid snow event from it but the whole thing dampens as it exits the Great Lakes 

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The NAM is insistent, run after run that there is minimal snow Tuesday, it shows an inch for most of the region, then a sleet fest before rain. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019020918&fh=84

 

 

•  

Nam is mostly sleet with little rain

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM appears out to lunch on this event.  It has the CAD but it generates zero precip.  It’s hard to go against the EPS and Euro at 72-84 

Seeing the Cmc very cold with alot of precip is telling. Cmc is usually warm.

[RU848789]

36 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I want to say only those direct from ECMWF maps don’t include sleet.  DT often posts them though I’m not sure he’s actually supposed to.  They have odd ball color schemes ranging from like dark green to gray

To be clear, I was asking about these maps.  I could see how the UK map includes sleet (although it should say that if it does), since it's consistently been higher than every other model assuming it's just snow - if it's snow + sleet (at 10:1 ratio), like the TT maps, it would be in line with them.  The Euro isn't showing that much, so maybe it is just snow.  Just guessing here - would be nice to know.  

 

[ILoveWinter]

As long as the primary doesn't end up stronger that currently modeled, I think 3-4 is def doable in NYC proper.  Not a huge snow but will take anything at this point!

[MANDA]

NWS PHI mentions significant icing possible along and north of Rt 78 in afternoon AFD.

If trends on EURO persist this could be real possibility.

Worth watching out for.

[hudsonvalley21]

Uptons thoughts.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Focus of attention this period will be at the very onset as the
first in a series of southern branch storm systems impact the
region. The first of which poses a winter weather hazard as
a strong polar high (1040mb) passes to the north across eastern
Canada and the northeast allowing cold air to dam east of the
Appalachians.

The global models have warmed a bit faster in the low levels
the last 24 hours and this is supported by a strong elevated
warm nose with the NAM and SREF. The latter of which often can
be too aggressive with the warm aloft. Accounting for this
uncertainty and precipitation developing toward daybreak, still
raises the potential for a quick hitting 1-3 inches of
snow/sleet at the coast before going over to rain in the
afternoon. Across the interior, the transition will be later
with 2 to 5 inches of snow/sleet and a tenth or two of ice
accretion possible. The highest amounts at this time will be
across interior NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and northern
portions of Fairfield and New haven counties in CT.

Additionally, the location of the frontal wave that develops to
the south will be critical in determining the direction of the
low-level winds. A significant ice accretion is possible across
the interior, however, model soundings are supporting a
prolonged period sleet with a transition over to plain rain
across most locations as temperatures gradually rise above the
freezing mark Tuesday evening. Regardless, based on the parent
low being across the Great Lakes, warm air will come in aloft
for a transition to rain. Secondary low development occurs much
too late and close to the region for this not to happen.

The greatest uncertainty with this forecast reside on the front
end and how quickly the transition to rain occurs. Small timing
differences could have a significant impact on snow/ice totals.

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Uptons thoughts.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Focus of attention this period will be at the very onset as the
first in a series of southern branch storm systems impact the
region. The first of which poses a winter weather hazard as
a strong polar high (1040mb) passes to the north across eastern
Canada and the northeast allowing cold air to dam east of the
Appalachians.

The global models have warmed a bit faster in the low levels
the last 24 hours and this is supported by a strong elevated
warm nose with the NAM and SREF. The latter of which often can
be too aggressive with the warm aloft. Accounting for this
uncertainty and precipitation developing toward daybreak, still
raises the potential for a quick hitting 1-3 inches of
snow/sleet at the coast before going over to rain in the
afternoon. Across the interior, the transition will be later
with 2 to 5 inches of snow/sleet and a tenth or two of ice
accretion possible. The highest amounts at this time will be
across interior NE NJ, the Lower Hudson Valley, and northern
portions of Fairfield and New haven counties in CT.

Additionally, the location of the frontal wave that develops to
the south will be critical in determining the direction of the
low-level winds. A significant ice accretion is possible across
the interior, however, model soundings are supporting a
prolonged period sleet with a transition over to plain rain
across most locations as temperatures gradually rise above the
freezing mark Tuesday evening. Regardless, based on the parent
low being across the Great Lakes, warm air will come in aloft
for a transition to rain. Secondary low development occurs much
too late and close to the region for this not to happen.

The greatest uncertainty with this forecast reside on the front
end and how quickly the transition to rain occurs. Small timing
differences could have a significant impact on snow/ice totals.

"Potential" for a quick 1-3.... then a quick turnover. This is sounding like little more than a nuisance event. I'm not worried about ice I'm too near the coast. Can't buy a decent even this year. For the record, 1-3 in my book is nothing to worry about. Won't stop the idiots from clearing the shelves off, though. 2-5 in the northern suburbs? Hope they don't get any ice. Ice is bad.

[hudsonvalley21]

4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

"Potential" for a quick 1-3.... then a quick turnover. This is sounding like little more than a nuisance event. I'm not worried about ice I'm too near the coast. Can't buy a decent even this year. For the record, 1-3 in my book is nothing to worry about. Won't stop the idiots from clearing the shelves off, though. 2-5 in the northern suburbs? Hope they don't get any ice. Ice is bad.

We'll see how it pans out. Still a couple of days for some wiggles in the forecasts. In events with a front end thump, it usually comes down to nowcasting for the area.

[nightknights]

5 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

"Potential" for a quick 1-3.... then a quick turnover. This is sounding like little more than a nuisance event. I'm not worried about ice I'm too near the coast. Can't buy a decent even this year. For the record, 1-3 in my book is nothing to worry about. Won't stop the idiots from clearing the shelves off, though. 2-5 in the northern suburbs? Hope they don't get any ice. Ice is bad.

1-3 is right in Murphy's wheelhouse for  State of Emergency

[hudsonvalley21]

Just now, nightknights said:

1-3 is right in Murphy's wheelhouse for  State of Emergency

Time to put the salt down.

[Ericjcrash]

NYC ~4" 

LGA ~4"

JFK ~2" 

ISP ~3" 

Minimal if any sleet. 

[weatherpruf]

Just now, nightknights said:

1-3 is right in Murphy's wheelhouse for  State of Emergency

Hmmm...seem to recall a lot of folks criticizing him for not declaring a SEM for the 2-4 we had in Nov....

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Time to put the salt down.

Salter was on rt. 1&9 this morning.....

[RU848789]

15 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

"Potential" for a quick 1-3.... then a quick turnover. This is sounding like little more than a nuisance event. I'm not worried about ice I'm too near the coast. Can't buy a decent even this year. For the record, 1-3 in my book is nothing to worry about. Won't stop the idiots from clearing the shelves off, though. 2-5 in the northern suburbs? Hope they don't get any ice. Ice is bad.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, for the 95 area from at least Trenton to NYC, most of the models are showing at least 2-3" of snow for us from both systems, followed by several hours of sleet, producing 1-2" of sleet, which is the equivalent of about 3-6" of 10:1 snow, so that's like 5-9" total frozen precip or 0.5-0.9" LE as frozen, which is quite a bit of mass and will be impactful, if it verifies.  NWS greatly underestimated the cold air in place on 11/15, then overestimated it for the 1/20 and 1/29 events and it wouldn't surprise me if they're underestimating again.  For 11/15 and this event, there was/is decent model consensus on a moderarate to significant frozen precip event at 2+ days out - for 11/15, the NWS never adjusted to the models until it was way too late - let's see what happens here, but given the timing of the app on Monday morning and part 2 on Tuesday morning, they need to get this right, as underestimates will have a big impact on the morning commutes. 

[hudsonvalley21]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, most of the models are showing at least 2-3" of snow for us from both systems, followed by several hours of sleet, producing 1-2" of sleet, which is the equivalent of about 3-6" of 10:1 snow, so that's like 5-9" total frozen precip or 0.5-0.9" LE as frozen, which is quite a bit of mass and will be impactful, if it verifies.  NWS greatly underestimated the cold air in place on 11/15, then overestimated it for the 1/20 and 1/29 events and it wouldn't surprise me if they're underestimating again.  For 11/15 and this event, there was/is decent model consensus on a moderarate to significant frozen precip event at 2+ days out - for 11/15, the NWS never adjusted to the models until it was way too late - let's see what happens here, but given the timing of the app on Monday morning and part 2 on Tuesday morning, they need to get this right, as underestimates will have a big impact on the morning commutes. 

It seems like they are being a little bullish for my area. In my point and click forecast, they have 3-7" of snow and sleet before changing to rain for the 2nd event Tuesday. 

[RU848789]

9 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, for the 95 area from at least Trenton to NYC, most of the models are showing at least 2-3" of snow for us from both systems, followed by several hours of sleet, producing 1-2" of sleet, which is the equivalent of about 3-6" of 10:1 snow, so that's like 5-9" total frozen precip or 0.5-0.9" LE as frozen, which is quite a bit of mass and will be impactful, if it verifies.  NWS greatly underestimated the cold air in place on 11/15, then overestimated it for the 1/20 and 1/29 events and it wouldn't surprise me if they're underestimating again.  For 11/15 and this event, there was/is decent model consensus on a moderarate to significant frozen precip event at 2+ days out - for 11/15, the NWS never adjusted to the models until it was way too late - let's see what happens here, but given the timing of the app on Monday morning and part 2 on Tuesday morning, they need to get this right, as underestimates will have a big impact on the morning commutes. 

Perhaps Mt. Holly was listening, lol.  They just updated my local forecast/graphic, which now has almost an inch for the app, then 4" for round 2, with some sleet after that (but no accumulation noted), then about 0.6" of rain.  That's not a nuisance event and still isn't as much as most models are showing (for total frozen LE), but they know more about this stuff than I do - I just don't like seeing huge discrepancies between their forecasts and the models as we get close in (as we saw on 11/15).  

[weatherpruf]

16 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, for the 95 area from at least Trenton to NYC, most of the models are showing at least 2-3" of snow for us from both systems, followed by several hours of sleet, producing 1-2" of sleet, which is the equivalent of about 3-6" of 10:1 snow, so that's like 5-9" total frozen precip or 0.5-0.9" LE as frozen, which is quite a bit of mass and will be impactful, if it verifies.  NWS greatly underestimated the cold air in place on 11/15, then overestimated it for the 1/20 and 1/29 events and it wouldn't surprise me if they're underestimating again.  For 11/15 and this event, there was/is decent model consensus on a moderarate to significant frozen precip event at 2+ days out - for 11/15, the NWS never adjusted to the models until it was way too late - let's see what happens here, but given the timing of the app on Monday morning and part 2 on Tuesday morning, they need to get this right, as underestimates will have a big impact on the morning commutes. 

If that happens like you think it would be enough of a storm for people to cancel things. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, Stormlover74 said:

Nam shifted south with wave 1. Starting to think it's a dusting to 1" kind of event

RGEM however shifted north and gets an inch to inch and a half up to our area. Still a very close call for wave 1. Could just be a dusting, but just a small shift north and it could be 2 inches.

[weatherpruf]

3 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

Perhaps Mt. Holly was listening, lol.  They just updated my local forecast/graphic, which now has almost an inch for the app, then 4" for round 2, with some sleet after that (but no accumulation noted), then about 0.6" of rain.  That's not a nuisance event and still isn't as much as most models are showing (for total frozen LE), but they know more about this stuff than I do - I just don't like seeing huge discrepancies between their forecasts and the models as we get close in (as we saw on 11/15).  

What do you mean by two systems? The Sun-Mon one AFAIK is close to nothing at all ( I'm not even sure which day it is it's so far beneath my radar ). I would assume whatever falls from that one will be mostly gone by Tues?

[snowman19]

49 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

To be clear, I was asking about these maps.  I could see how the UK map includes sleet (although it should say that if it does), since it's consistently been higher than every other model assuming it's just snow - if it's snow + sleet (at 10:1 ratio), like the TT maps, it would be in line with them.  The Euro isn't showing that much, so maybe it is just snow.  Just guessing here - would be nice to know.  

 

The UKMET has consistently been too snowy and too cold this winter. It really botched the 1/20 event 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, justinj said:

What is Long Island looking at especially central Suffolk 

1-2” then rain

[psv88]

38 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

NYC ~4" 

LGA ~4"

JFK ~2" 

ISP ~3" 

Minimal if any sleet. 

Knock off an inch or so and that’s good

[MJO812]

55 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

NYC ~4" 

LGA ~4"

JFK ~2" 

ISP ~3" 

Minimal if any sleet. 

Good call