snowheavyattimes Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 9 minutes ago, gump said: Snowing in Toms River That’s a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 33 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 0Z RGEM a pretty big improvement over previous runs if you want front end snow Yep, it shows a bit of snow on the front end and shows the first 0.7-0.8" of LE is snow and sleet (mostly sleet) for at least Edison and NYC, the two places/soundings I checked, before turning to plain rain and getting another 0.7" or so of rain after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I'll say. I do like sleet...not as much as snow though. Maybe it's my Catholic upbringing, but I like the sting a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, SleetStormNJ said: Big fan of sleet. Bigtime fan. Name checks out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Rgem shows 2-4 inches for NYC Snows from 6am -1pm Good improvement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: 0Z NAM is the first piece of good news I've seen since the 12Z NAM, given the models trending badly today, for the most part - 0Z NAM bumps frozen LE back up for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC vs. 18Z. Still almost all the frozen is sleet, as per the PW map, below, showing <1" snow, as the NAM has been showing for many runs, but more frozen is better than less. I've been peering over the edge based on the crappy 18Z runs today - hopefully things are looking back up. We'll see. Well, the TT maps for the 0Z NAM might say mostly sleet, but NCEP says about 0.43" LE as sleet, 0.30" as ZR and 0.21" as rain (and almost no snow) - that's a lot of ZR. This is for Newark. I can't even begin to ponder how to figure out which is more likely to be right if either, but thought it was at least worth sharing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem shows 2-4 inches for NYC Snows from 6am -1pm Good improvement It doesn't snow for 7 hours, you mean sleet/snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Rgem shows 2-4 inches for NYC Snows from 6am -1pm Good improvement My final call on FB for my friends and such was 2-5" for Manhattan. Not saying that verifies but it was funny to see the bridge jumpers today. Euro never wavered, no reason to call it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 13 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: I'll say. I do like sleet...not as much as snow though. Maybe it's my Catholic upbringing, but I like the sting a bit. I’ll put up the snorkel before heading out. I went to catholic school in the 70s so yeah I’ve been slapped around and hit with yardsticks too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Looks like it’s coming in a bit ahead of schedule. Haven’t had time to analyze this storm much due to my Father having a very serious complication from surgery, so sorry for my lack of input with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Looks like it’s coming in a bit ahead of schedule. Haven’t had time to analyze this storm much due to my Father having a very serious complication from surgery, so sorry for my lack of input with this one. Priorities ,,,,,I hope the old man is ok Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
New York Blizzard Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: 0Z NAM is the first piece of good news I've seen since the 12Z NAM, given the models trending badly today, for the most part - 0Z NAM bumps frozen LE back up for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC vs. 18Z. Still almost all the frozen is sleet, as per the PW map, below, showing <1" snow, as the NAM has been showing for many runs, but more frozen is better than less. I've been peering over the edge based on the crappy 18Z runs today - hopefully things are looking back up. We'll see. How can you take this map seriously, it has 0.1 inches of snow. I’m pretty sure we’ll get more of the snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, New York Blizzard said: How can you take this map seriously, it has 0.1 inches of snow. I’m pretty sure we’ll get more of the snow Yea I can pretty much guarantee that map won't verify. It would be quite a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 22 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: It doesn't snow for 7 hours, you mean sleet/snow? Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 4 minutes ago, New York Blizzard said: How can you take this map seriously, it has 0.1 inches of snow. I’m pretty sure we’ll get more of the snow My only point of the post, which I thought I made, was that 0Z had much more frozen precip than 18Z, which was a huge departure for the NAM vs. every other run the past few days, which I have been commenting on. I would also be very surprised to not get at least 1-2" of snow in the NYC area and where I live near Edison. I have zero idea when the transition will occur as so many factors go into that and I don't think it can be well predicted everywhere - that's a nowcasting thing, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I'm not sure what the current radar was " supposed " to look like but I think it looks real good right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Current temp 33/DP 22/RH 56% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I'm not sure what the current radar was " supposed " to look like but I think it looks real good right now Precip is very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: I'm not sure what the current radar was " supposed " to look like but I think it looks real good right now Here’s the HRR from 21Z today valid at 05Z tonight. It definitely showed this sort of look but then it was forecast to make no advancement in the next few hours. We have to wait another 3-4 hours to see how it progresses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Question guys and girls = is the trough on the primary low MORE neutral ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Minor point, but just noticed a discontinuity in Mt. Holly's warnings/advisories. The warnings for Upper Montco/Bucks, Hunterdon/Somerset are for 4-6", while the advisories for the next tier of counties SE of there, i.e,. Lower Montco/Bucks, Mercer, and Middlesex (and Monmouth) are for 1-3". You can't go from 3" to 4" by crossing an imaginary county line. The advisories earlier today were for 2-4" for those counties, which makes sense, as the highest amount in those counties should equal or overlap with the lowest amount in the next tier, but they dropped them to 1-3" this evening. Not expecting perfection, but that's kind of bad. https://www.weather.gov/PHI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Looks like we might get a coating from that batch of precipitation just to our southwest but the main precipitation doesn’t come in until about 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Precip is very close That light band will stall there south of us for a while as the HRRR depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Big dew point drop from north to south across Long Island over the past 2 hours coincident with the wind picking up from the northeast. When I saw the Stony Brook ob at midnight I thought it was an error. It's almost got a backdoor cold front vibe to it: 11PM: Farmingdale FAIR 32 20 61 E10 30.38R WCI 24 MacArthur/ISP CLOUDY 32 21 64 CALM 30.38R Stony Brook N/A 32 25 74 NE1 N/A 12AM: Farmingdale FAIR 32 22 66 NE10 30.40R WCI 24 MacArthur/ISP CLOUDY 32 22 66 N8 30.40R WCI 25 Stony Brook N/A 32 12 43 NE5 N/A WCI 27 1AM: Farmingdale CLOUDY 32 10 40 NE16G23 30.39F WCI 21 MacArthur/ISP FAIR 31 10 41 NE13 30.39F WCI 21 Stony Brook N/A 32 10 40 NE6 N/A WCI 26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 NWS updates: NYC office delays precip onset to ~7 am and Philly office thinks snow be be a little overdone for their far NW... National Weather Service New York NY 101 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... With high pressure nosed into the region from the north, and with latest guidance holding off precipitation until closer to 12Z, delayed onset of precipitation a few hours. The high pressure area within Southeast Canada builds in through much of tonight as diagnosed by positive pressure tendencies within the local region. Towards daybreak Tuesday, pressure tendencies will become neutral to negative, as high pressure moves farther away farther northward within Southeast Canada. This will be accompanied by steady rising heights aloft. There will be large amount of dry air to overcome with initial precipitation and the aforementioned factors convey more subsidence that will limit growth of any precipitation. Expecting dry conditions to prevail through much of tonight with increasing clouds. Chances for snow increase late from SW to NE, not becoming likely until after 5AM Tuesday. Lows tonight were a blend of raw consensus and GMOS, ranging from the low to upper 20s. National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1258 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1250am Update: Regional radar imagery indicates a light band of precip draped across eastern PA and central/southern NJ. Most of this precip is falling in the form of light snow, with some mixed precip near the southern most fringe of the band. Updated the forecast to reflect the latest trends in radar, surface observations, and hi-res guidance through the overnight hours. This initial round of precip appears to be lighter and much less than coverage, especially across Delmarva and far southern NJ, than was originally forecast. The latest HRRR runs appear to be capturing its evolution well whereas the 00z NAM and NAM Nest runs initialized too warm and dry. Currently expecting this band to persist with occasional showers of rain or mixed precip across our southern areas for the next few hours. Better forcing and isentropic lifting will arrive closer to daybreak yielding more widespread and heavier precip generally from SW to NE. With that said, looks like our storm total snow forecast my be a bit too high for our far northwestern areas of the southern Poconos and NW NJ. Will reassess and make adjustments as needed with the next forecast update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 radar drying up a bit as it approaches. that was to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 24 minutes ago, RU848789 said: NWS updates: NYC office delays precip onset to ~7 am and Philly office thinks snow be be a little overdone for their far NW... National Weather Service New York NY 101 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019 NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/... With high pressure nosed into the region from the north, and with latest guidance holding off precipitation until closer to 12Z, delayed onset of precipitation a few hours. The high pressure area within Southeast Canada builds in through much of tonight as diagnosed by positive pressure tendencies within the local region. Towards daybreak Tuesday, pressure tendencies will become neutral to negative, as high pressure moves farther away farther northward within Southeast Canada. This will be accompanied by steady rising heights aloft. There will be large amount of dry air to overcome with initial precipitation and the aforementioned factors convey more subsidence that will limit growth of any precipitation. Expecting dry conditions to prevail through much of tonight with increasing clouds. Chances for snow increase late from SW to NE, not becoming likely until after 5AM Tuesday. Lows tonight were a blend of raw consensus and GMOS, ranging from the low to upper 20s. National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ 1258 AM EST Tue Feb 12 2019 NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... 1250am Update: Regional radar imagery indicates a light band of precip draped across eastern PA and central/southern NJ. Most of this precip is falling in the form of light snow, with some mixed precip near the southern most fringe of the band. Updated the forecast to reflect the latest trends in radar, surface observations, and hi-res guidance through the overnight hours. This initial round of precip appears to be lighter and much less than coverage, especially across Delmarva and far southern NJ, than was originally forecast. The latest HRRR runs appear to be capturing its evolution well whereas the 00z NAM and NAM Nest runs initialized too warm and dry. Currently expecting this band to persist with occasional showers of rain or mixed precip across our southern areas for the next few hours. Better forcing and isentropic lifting will arrive closer to daybreak yielding more widespread and heavier precip generally from SW to NE. With that said, looks like our storm total snow forecast my be a bit too high for our far northwestern areas of the southern Poconos and NW NJ. Will reassess and make adjustments as needed with the next forecast update. Surely was over done I sit at .25 so far from round 2. was forecast 1-3 overnight. just some pixie dust falling at the moment in Berks county Pa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Current temp 33/DP 22/RH 52% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Radar as of 4:12am looks like absolute shit. i dont see how we start snowing at 7am-8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The one thing I have noticed is a pretty substantial drop in my DP/RH over the last hour from 22/52 down to 12/39 Current temp 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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