Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 10 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said: Big fan of sleet. Bigtime fan. Same here, 07 was awesome! Complete disaster for road crews, loved it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The RUC soundings which I’ve tended to find very accurate the last couple of years show NYC/LGA snow til 1730Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: The RUC soundings which I’ve tended to find very accurate the last couple of years show NYC/LGA snow til 1730Z How long does the sleet hang on for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: How long does the sleet hang on for? Through 00Z it’s still all frozen. It appears from 22-23Z it’s FZRA or FZRAPL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: Through 00Z it’s still all frozen. It appears from 22-23Z it’s FZRA or FZRAPL Thanks! If you don't mind, total frozen QPF? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 0Z NAM is the first piece of good news I've seen since the 12Z NAM, given the models trending badly today, for the most part - 0Z NAM bumps frozen LE back up for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC vs. 18Z. Still almost all the frozen is sleet, as per the PW map, below, showing <1" snow, as the NAM has been showing for many runs, but more frozen is better than less. I've been peering over the edge based on the crappy 18Z runs today - hopefully things are looking back up. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, RU848789 said: 0Z NAM is the first piece of good news I've seen since the 12Z NAM, given the models trending badly today, for the most part - 0Z NAM bumps frozen LE back up for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC vs. 18Z. Still almost all the frozen is sleet, as per the PW map, below, showing <1" snow, as the NAM has been showing for many runs, but more frozen is better than less. I've been peering over the edge based on the crappy 18Z runs today - hopefully things are looking back up. We'll see. Yea I doubt theres no snow all the way up to the Mid HV with this. NAM def has an interesting solution all around with the no snow and extended sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, RU848789 said: 0Z NAM is the first piece of good news I've seen since the 12Z NAM, given the models trending badly today, for the most part - 0Z NAM bumps frozen LE back up for most of CNJ/NNJ/NYC vs. 18Z. Still almost all the frozen is sleet, as per the PW map, below, showing <1" snow, as the NAM has been showing for many runs, but more frozen is better than less. I've been peering over the edge based on the crappy 18Z runs today - hopefully things are looking back up. We'll see. Have a real hard time believing this snow map. 1 inch by me in mid hudson valley and only 4 in Albany. Seriously doubt it, and nam is only one that shows this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Radar looks good. Precip starting early ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Yea I doubt theres no snow all the way up to the Mid HV with this. NAM def has an interesting solution all around with the no snow and extended sleet. Yeah, I don't care much about the snow depiction, which could be wrong - I was concerned that the NAM went from 90% LE as sleet to 50% LE as sleet with the rest rain from 12Z to 18Z, while the RGEM, GFS and others were also showing more rain and less frozen, so I was ecstatic to see the 0Z NAM go back to 80-90% of the total precip as frozen. Was just looking at the direction the NAM went and I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: Have a real hard time believing this snow map. 1 inch by me in mid hudson valley and only 4 in Albany. Seriously doubt it, and nam is only one that shows this. Yeah, and ironically has the most frozen precip down here at the same time. Its almost an impossibility that western MA gets no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 29 minutes ago, SleetStormNJ said: Big fan of sleet. Bigtime fan. I never would have guessed.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Radar looks good. Precip starting early ? Probably but it's running into dry air. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: Probably but it's running into dry air. We'll see. Dews are slowly rising Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 minute ago, RU848789 said: Yeah, I don't care much about the snow depiction, which could be wrong - I was concerned that the NAM went from 90% LE as sleet to 50% LE as sleet with the rest rain from 12Z to 18Z, while the RGEM, GFS and others were also showing more rain and less frozen, so I was ecstatic to see the 0Z NAM go back to 80-90% of the total precip as frozen. Was just looking at the direction the NAM went and I like it. Yeah, I just think nam is wrong on this one with such a quick changeover to sleet. I will give it it's due if it turns out to be correct but it's more likely it's not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Probably but it's running into dry air. We'll see. Dewpt dropped from 18 to 14 at KSWF the last hour. edit. And 18 to 13 at KMGJ the last hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 27/9 with a clear sky and light north wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Radar looks good. Precip starting early ? Not sure yet. HRRR showed it might headfake for a time from 04-07Z then dry out and stop advancing. Won’t know for a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Yeah, many short range models indicate a "headfake", but the radar does look great. I was shocked when I looked... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 15 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Yeah, I don't care much about the snow depiction, which could be wrong - I was concerned that the NAM went from 90% LE as sleet to 50% LE as sleet with the rest rain from 12Z to 18Z, while the RGEM, GFS and others were also showing more rain and less frozen, so I was ecstatic to see the 0Z NAM go back to 80-90% of the total precip as frozen. Was just looking at the direction the NAM went and I like it. 0Z RGEM a pretty big improvement over previous runs if you want front end snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Sleet is a waste of precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowheavyattimes Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Radar appears to look good but it might be virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 20 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: Dews are slowly rising Might be a good sign. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Not sure yet. HRRR showed it might headfake for a time from 04-07Z then dry out and stop advancing. Won’t know for a few hours Dew points are on the rise right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowheavyattimes said: Radar appears to look good but it might be virga. wonder whos actually reporting snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wetbulbs88 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 16 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Not sure yet. HRRR showed it might headfake for a time from 04-07Z then dry out and stop advancing. Won’t know for a few hours It almost certainly looks like a headfake to me. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I can smell the virga from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, Wetbulbs88 said: It almost certainly looks like a headfake to me. Hopefully I'm wrong, but I can smell the virga from here. Not a ton of dry air between 700-900. I’ve seen much worse. We will saturate fairly quickly once precip gets overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gump Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Snowing in Toms River Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, SleetStormNJ said: Big fan of sleet. Bigtime fan. Me too. I've written enough about sleet for a small book, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 5 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Me too. I've written enough about sleet for a small book, lol... It's hard to take a walk in. Stings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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