RU848789 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Let me clarify, its drier when temps support frozen precip. That chart shows it perfectly. Not good regardless. Fair point - I hadn't analyzed the precip over time - I guess the big question is why the change after so many runs with mostly sleet and pretty early. If this were 2007 someone would be questioning convective feedback, lol, although I've been suspicious of the 3km vs. the 12km for awhile, as they've been quite different, with the 3 km consistently showing more of a 50/50 sleet/rain combo and now that's what the 12km is showing, so maybe it's just correcting to something the 3km sees better (mesoscale convection). No idea if that's right, but the outcomes clearly have changed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 The new NAM (3K, 12K) and the RGEM are in excellent agreement for tomorrow. We have consensus: 3K NAM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021118&fh=45 12k NAM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021118&fh=42 RGEM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019021118&fh=41 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Did anyone ever post the UK from 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 NWS Albany just put me in a winter storm warning for 6 to 8 inches of snow and sleet plus up 1/4 inch of ice. Guess they didn't get the report that this is going to be a nothing burger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The new NAM (3K, 12K) and the RGEM are in excellent agreement for tomorrow. We have consensus: 3K NAM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam3km®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021118&fh=45 12k NAM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=neus&pkg=asnowd&runtime=2019021118&fh=42 RGEM: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=rgem®ion=neus&pkg=asnow&runtime=2019021118&fh=41 Concensus? What if nam is wrong? What about Ukie, Euro, and GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Concensus? What if nam is wrong? What about Ukie, Euro, and GFS? It matches the RGEM perfectly as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It matches the RGEM perfectly as well What about the other models that don't agree? There is no concensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It matches the RGEM perfectly as well RGEM trending colder at the surface, that's my biggest concern. It'll be a big problem just west of the city. I don't think we'll see much snow out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: RGEM trending colder at the surface, that's my biggest concern. It'll be a big problem just west of the city. I don't think we'll see much snow out of this. 1-3 inches of snow is a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It matches the RGEM perfectly as well You couldn't be more wrong. the 18z nam and rgem do not agree on either timing or duration of snow. Nam has precip starting around 10am in city and Rgem has it starting at about 7am. Those 3 hours can be a big difference. Also, nam has precip turning to sleet quickly where rgem has a prolonged period of snow not changing over until noon. Where are the similarities.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, HeadInTheClouds said: You couldn't be more wrong. the 18z nam and rgem do not agree on either timing or duration of snow. Nam has precip starting around 10am in city and Rgem has it starting at about 7am. Those 3 hours can be a big difference. Also, nam has precip turning to sleet quickly where rgem has a prolonged period of snow not changing over until noon. Where are the similarities.? Look at the snowmaps. Did you follow my links? It’s carbon copies of each other Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Look at the snowmaps. Did you follow my links? It’s carbon copies of each other I'm not looking at stupid snowmaps. The 2 models are not that similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Upton moved White Plains down to 3 inches from 5 and NYC up for 3 to 4 inches, still terrible map and way too high for NYC. NYC is quick flip to sleet from any snow, I like 1 inch of snow and maybe an inch of sleet before rain. My call has not changed. Snowgoose still like 3 or 4 easy for NYC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Upton moved White Plains down to 3 inches from 5 and NYC up for 3 to 4 inches, still terrible map and way too high for NYC. NYC is quick flip to sleet from any snow, I like 1 inch of snow and maybe an inch of sleet before rain. My call has not changed. Snowgoose still like 3 or 4 easy for NYC? So you're calling for 2" for NYC but 3" is way too high? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Upton moved White Plains down to 3 inches from 5 and NYC up for 3 to 4 inches, still terrible map and way too high for NYC. NYC is quick flip to sleet from any snow, I like 1 inch of snow and maybe an inch of sleet before rain. My call has not changed. Snowgoose still like 3 or 4 easy for NYC? That's not high at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Gov. Murphy declares a State of Emergency for the Winter Storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: That's not high at all He's a troll Ignore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: He's a troll Ignore I think you're right; none of the local pros are dismissing this as nothing. So it isn't an historic blizzard, we get that, but it is still an impactful storm that can create dangerous conditions. Prolonged sleet can be a serious hazard. What bothers me is I'm getting conflicted info on start times, with local mets saying as early as 2 am and folks here saying 7-10 am. That's quite a spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WallexWall Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I think we’ll get a wall snow event tomorrow morning. 3-5 inches for New York City proper followed by some sleet and turning into heavy rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 22 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Upton moved White Plains down to 3 inches from 5 and NYC up for 3 to 4 inches, still terrible map and way too high for NYC. NYC is quick flip to sleet from any snow, I like 1 inch of snow and maybe an inch of sleet before rain. My call has not changed. Snowgoose still like 3 or 4 easy for NYC? Theres almost no way NYC will see more snow than White Plains in this particular setup with the mid levels warming from southwest to northeast. I would expect the precip type gradient to be very north vs south in this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I've seen the Euro (but can't post it) - has anyone posted it? Same for the UK - I've heard it's "similar" to 0Z which would be great. Starting to feel like it's the 2 best globals (which show a few inches of snow and several hours of sleet for 0.8-0.9" or so of total frozen LE for Trenton to NYC at least) vs. the more recent meso/high-res models showing less precip, a late start and not that much frozen (maybe 0.5" LE). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 https://digital.weather.gov/ galoshes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I didn’t see the 18Z RGEM but the 12Z sure wanted to change NYC over to rain much earlier than the NAM or Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 HRRR says no snow in the city until approx 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WallexWall Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 32 minutes ago, Doorman said: https://digital.weather.gov/ galoshes Tommy I’ll take my 4 inches and run! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, WallexWall said: Tommy I’ll take my 4 inches and run! with your galoshes on !!!!! keep your umbrella, raincoat, and canoe handy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 this is new...downgraded for some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 15 minutes ago, Doorman said: HRRR says no snow in the city until approx 8am As does everything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: As does everything else. Our schools already closed. If there's nothing to shovel, oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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