Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Carlover, Mike and Nittany = Thanks for the replies I will check it out now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I see it on TT thanks guys I appreciate it= hopefully this silly question to YOU GUYS helped others as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Nice to see the NAM/RGEM tick slightly colder for tomorrow. Maybe we can at least see an inch or 2 before the sleet and then the wash out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Watch, for my area, they'll cancel schools tomorrow, they did that multiple times with the four'easters we had last much, even though three of them for me were a washout. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 38 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Nittany this I understand but right now many people are saying / posting that the mid levels are going to torch so my question is how does anyone know that right now as ( and Im sure others don't understand it either ) some of us / me still don't understand what causes that ? Oh well this is my weenie answer in a way but I just look at the precip type maps on the models, you can see the sleet depiction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 And here's my new favorite, free graphic. Look at the major differences in the NAM frozen/liquid ratios for EWR vs. 6Z. 12Z has 0.85" as snow/sleet, 0.14" as ZR and only 0.19" as plain rain, whereas 6Z NAM had 0.67" snow/sleet, 0.04" ZR and 0.5" plain rain. Huge. Interestingly, though, the 3 km NAM looks about the same at 12Z and 6Z with about half sleet/half rain for the ~1" LE. Wish we had graphics like this for the other models... http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NJ&stn=KEWR&model=nam&time=2019021112&field=pcompare.zoom Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 HRRR showing classic cold air damming for the region. Surface may be in the 20s with snow/sleet falling for several hours. Could be a nightmare of a morning commute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, RU848789 said: And here's my new favorite, free graphic. Look at the major differences in the NAM frozen/liquid ratios for EWR vs. 6Z. 12Z has 0.85" as snow/sleet, 0.14" as ZR and only 0.19" as plain rain, whereas 6Z NAM had 0.67" snow/sleet, 0.04" ZR and 0.5" plain rain. Huge. Interestingly, though, the 3 km NAM looks about the same at 12Z and 6Z with about half sleet/half rain for the ~1" LE. Wish we had graphics like this for the other models... http://coolwx.com/cgi-bin/getbufr.cgi?region=NJ&stn=KEWR&model=nam&time=2019021112&field=pcompare.zoom Go NAM. I know some people don't want a sleetstorm but I am so sick and tired of rain all winter, want something interesting and it's least it's not much ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Go NAM. I know some people don't want a sleetstorm but I am so sick and tired of rain all winter, want something interesting and it's least it's not much ZR I don't approve of disliking sleet. It's just high density snow, lol. If snow is a 10 and rain is a 0, then sleet is a 9 to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I don't approve of disliking sleet. It's just high density snow, lol. If snow is a 10 and rain is a 0, then sleet is a 9 to me. I’ll take it too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 8 minutes ago, RU848789 said: I don't approve of disliking sleet. It's just high density snow, lol. If snow is a 10 and rain is a 0, then sleet is a 9 to me. Thoroughly agree -- especially when building a snowpack, which unfortunately isnt the case here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
romba Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Sleet normally is a 5/10 but this year’s dry spell is like adding alcohol to the judgment- gets a 4 point boost lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1- 2 inches of snow 1-2 inches of sleet tomorrow NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: 1- 2 inches of snow 1-2 inches of sleet tomorrow NYC Your snow forecast amounts keep going downward Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said: Your snow forecast amounts keep going downward He's getting closer lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 hour ago, RU848789 said: I don't approve of disliking sleet. It's just high density snow, lol. If snow is a 10 and rain is a 0, then sleet is a 9 to me. I couldn't agree more. Give me 4-5 inches of snow and 2-3 inches of sleet on top and that's a recipe for a snow pack into March. Provided of course it's not followed by a GLC with mid 50's and two inches of rain which of course in this winter of my discontent happened five days after the January 19 snow and ice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said: I couldn't agree more. Give me 4-5 inches of snow and 2-3 inches of sleet on top and that's a recipe for a snow pack into March. Provided of course it's not followed by a GLC with mid 50's and two inches of rain which of course in this winter of my discontent happened five days after the January 19 snow and ice event. Come on, man. Anything less than a foot after settling isn't a "pack", it's just coverage. Don't compromise! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: He's getting closer lol Closer to what? Everyone is going to start as snow as the dew points are going to be low. The question will be when the changeover will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 21 minutes ago, NycStormChaser said: He's getting closer lol 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Closer to what? Everyone is going to start as snow as the dew points are going to be low. The question will be when the changeover will be. I can only speak of my location--out on LI I expect maybe 3/4 inch of snow before the inevitable changeover occurs. I expect tmw night to be quite rainy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 23 hours ago, qg_omega said: Guys it's sleet to rain, stop with the snow maps. Less than an inch of snow for NYC then sleet and rain. It's a nothing burger 23 hours ago, Snowshack said: You should let upton know, they are forecasting numbers similar to what’s being discussed here. A couple of inches in the metro actually would be notable given what’s transpired this year. 23 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: This should be 3-4 inches easily. It’s possible if models are too slow advancing the precipitation in which they very well might be given they stall it for ages across EPA and NJ that this could be similar to the November storm in amounts 23 hours ago, qg_omega said: They are wrong, look at their snow map for the MLK January storm two days before, 4 to 6 inches for a large portion of the area. How much did we pick up? 23 hours ago, qg_omega said: I'll bet under on that for NYC all day. 3 to 4 easy.... Not in this setup. I'll bump this on Wednesday. 23 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The setup was nowhere near as good. High wasn’t a one piece anchored high. It was a sprawled our high with the neck positioned too far west across Quebec so you just didn’t get the proper CAD signature. Also the air mass wasn’t as good in place ahead of the storm 23 hours ago, weatherpruf said: I don't dismiss posters like SnowGoose. And in fact the major forecasters on 1010 and WNYC are talking similar numbers, either 1-3 or 2-4 coastal and 3-6 inland plus possible ZR there. May not be the world's biggest event, but likely to be more significant than a nothingburger, and will probably be a shock to the system for folks who have gotten complacent. 23 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: This ain't the MLK storm. The high is much stronger and better placed. We shall see then. Also don't dismiss those just inland and away from the city. 23 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The MLK event high position only works when a system tracks from a low latitude. That system originated too far north in the Plains and Midwest for the CAD to properly work 22 hours ago, Ericjcrash said: I've never agreed more with an Upton product before, especially 2 days out. Excellent. No changes to my forecast, Upton still going with 3 inches for NYC (this is down from yesterday but not nearly enough) and 5 inches for White Plains. I am in White Plains and I am expecting 1-2 inches of snow then sleet/rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 NAM would be best case scenario. I guess a sleety solution could make sense, that high is no joke so CAD should be significant coupled with the low dewpoints. Obviously mid levels torch with a low in the lakes... NAM is pretty much all frozen before dryslot. You get a decent amount of rain with the weak secondary passing overhead after but still it falls in the 30s into a glacier. I don't see how NYC records less than 3"(even if it's mostly sleet) if the NAM is anywhere near correct. GFS ticked colder as well and positive depth change map is 3" as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Quite a lot of low pressure centers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 19 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Closer to what? Everyone is going to start as snow as the dew points are going to be low. The question will be when the changeover will be. Probably within 2 hours of start time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 with the way this winter has been 1-3”, 2-4” will feel like feet no matter if its snow or pure sleet at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Could someone say how the Euro is looking, and/or post some graphics? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said: with the way this winter has been 1-3”, 2-4” will feel like feet no matter if its snow or pure sleet at this point If you remove Nov, I've had 4 dustings to date which wouldn't even equal an inch when combined. 2" would feel like 2' this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 23 minutes ago, CarLover014 said: Could someone say how the Euro is looking, and/or post some graphics? Gets above freezing around 7-8pm.... about .75 LE falls before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If you remove Nov, I've had 4 dustings to date which wouldn't even equal an inch when combined. 2" would feel like 2' this winter. If you remove November, and the storms in December and January, plus anything that falls during the rest of the winter, I'll have had no snow at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 13 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Gets above freezing around 7-8pm.... about .75 LE falls before then. That's later than it was before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yankeex777 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 16 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Gets above freezing around 7-8pm.... about .75 LE falls before then. Without seeing any maps that sounds like an improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.