weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Wow really? 1-3 to play it safe I wouldn't be shocked if we see more than 2 inches . Have to see how the CAD plays out. Yes we do close for sleet if it’s steady and falling at opening time this is the suburbs and kids don’t walk much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 37 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Ended up with a pretty 1/4" coating on everything. Take anything I can get. Yup took a nice walk in the park just to get into the mood this morning. Was refreshing. Regular hikers were fine haven’t needed the ice boots yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: You never know. The models can also be underdoing the low level cold like we saw with past storms. Like Neg NAO stated , this will be a nowcasting event. Yea at this point it's basically just wait and see but the way this winter is going can't be optimistic plus whatever frozen falls likely washed away, I don't think I've ever seen a winter with as much rain as this one, we haven't had one single event all year that's been mostly or all frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 NWS aggressive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: NWS aggressive! Not trying to be negative but being real, theres no model support for this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Not trying to be negative but being real, theres no model support for this right now. Doesn't the EURO still show 4 to 6? GFS is still 2 to 5 Agreed all other models no. However that is snow sleet mix. NAM is 6 inches with sleet 1 without. Total accumulation would probably be 2 to 2.5 accumulation of both. Personally I am expecting 1 to 3 and 6 to 7 hours of sleet and freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Not trying to be negative but being real, theres no model support for this right now. Yes there is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Doesn't the EURO still show 4 to 6? GFS is still 2 to 5 Agreed all other models no. However that is snow sleet mix. NAM is 6 inches with sleet 1 without. Total accumulation would probably be 2 to 2.5 accumulation of both. Personally I am expecting 1 to 3 and 6 to 7 hours of sleet and freezing rain. Yea I think for Northern NYC and the immediate burbs this sounds about right, maybe slightly less than 6 to 7 hours. Also didn't realize Euro still showing 4-6, is that including with ratios? Are we sure it's not including sleet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Low levels hold on to colder longer than expected, mid-levels torch quick. Probably thump 1-3/2-4 and then pile on the sleet. In terms of pure snow, NWS is too high I think. Add some sleet in and I can see where they're trying to go with it. CYA in case mid-levels dont torch as quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Yes there is Just popped over to SD and he had the same numbers but through wed morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Extended HRRR looks like a solid 2-5 before the changeover. For whatever that’s worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, NittanyWx said: Low levels hold on to colder longer than expected, mid-levels torch quick. Probably thump 1-3/2-4 and then pile on the sleet. In terms of pure snow, NWS is too high I think. Add some sleet in and I can see where they're trying to go with it. In the March 2017 event they stated something to the effect that they don’t like to downplay amounts if sleet is involved as it is just as bad for driving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 25 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: In the March 2017 event they stated something to the effect that they don’t like to downplay amounts if sleet is involved as it is just as bad for driving NAM is quite the sleetstorm tomorrow for the metro, has about 6 hours of sleet the equivalent of almost .75 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Something to take into account in the city itself we do not have super cold ground temps. So we are really going to need it to come down heavy in order to accumulate on main roads. Sleet will accumulate just about anywhere though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Something to take into account in the city itself we do not have super cold ground temps. So we are really going to need it to come down heavy in order to accumulate on main roads. Sleet will accumulate just about anywhere though. Yep sleet will accumulate better than snow in this setup, it will also be harder to wash away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Im asking this question here and elsewhere = what is causing the mid levels to torch ? I know I can look at surface temps and radar tomorrow but Is there anything that we should look for now or hope for tomorrow to see if the mid levels are indeed torching or not ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Im asking this question here and elsewhere = what is causing the mid levels to torch ? I know I can look at surface temps and radar tomorrow but Is there anything that we should look for now or hope for tomorrow to see if the mid levels are indeed torching or not ? Out the window? A Radar? There are also maps showing mid level temps although I don't know exactly how to get access to them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2.5" as of 9:30 am. All schools have a delayed start, with a few cancellations a little farther south of here. Still snowing. 32/28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, CarLover014 said: 2.5" as of 9:30 am. All schools have a delayed start, with a few cancellations a little farther south of here. Still snowing. 32/28 Nice. 2.5 is four times what NYC has seen in the past 3 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Nice. 2.5 is four times what NYC has seen in the past 3 months. That's currently the biggest snowfall of the season for me. Very curious what places between Cape May and Atlantic City have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: Out the window? A Radar? There are also maps showing mid level temps although I don't know exactly how to get access to them Just watch the correlation coefficient on radar scope. Sleet ain't hard to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Im asking this question here and elsewhere = what is causing the mid levels to torch ? I know I can look at surface temps and radar tomorrow but Is there anything that we should look for now or hope for tomorrow to see if the mid levels are indeed torching or not ? Look at correlation coefficient on radar. Tells you real time where the sleet line is, which is an indication of where the upper levels are going above freezing. I use my RadarScope app but the below link works as well: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0C-0-6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, NittanyWx said: Just watch the correlation coefficient on radar scope. Sleet ain't hard to see. Nittany this I understand but right now many people are saying / posting that the mid levels are going to torch so my question is how does anyone know that right now as ( and Im sure others don't understand it either ) some of us / me still don't understand what causes that ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Bueller ? Bueller ? Anyone ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 6 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Nittany this I understand but right now many people are saying / posting that the mid levels are going to torch so my question is how does anyone know that right now as ( and Im sure others don't understand it either ) some of us / me still don't understand what causes that ? Track of the 700mb low leads to a screaming southwest wind between 850 and 700mb. Unlike the surface, where HP is dominant and allowing for cold air to wedge, the mid-levels aren't going to have as much resistance to WAA. Winds will turn quicker in the mid-levels, and as a result, we get a lot of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, NittanyWx said: Track of the 700mb low leads to a screaming southwest wind between 850 and 700mb. Unlike the surface, where HP is dominant and allowing for cold air to wedge, the mid-levels aren't going to have as much resistance to WAA. Winds will turn quicker in the mid-levels, and as a result, we get a lot of sleet. Thanks a lot Nittany I appreciate it,,,,,,is that seen only the soundings or is there somewhere else I could see it ? Possible for you or someone else to post a graphic = picture is worth a thousand words --> Thanks again Nittany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NittanyWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Brasiluvsnow said: Thanks a lot Nittany I appreciate it,,,,,,is that seen only the soundings or is there somewhere else I could see it ? Possible for you or someone else to post a graphic = picture is worth a thousand words --> Thanks again Nittany Most model pages don't have an 800mb chart. So, take a look in the soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 NEXT SILLY QUESTION BUT-----> and it has probably been asked before even by me but where can someone look at the soundings ? are they on TT or another site I can access or ONLY pay sights ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: NEXT SILLY QUESTION BUT-----> and it has probably been asked before even by me but where can someone look at the soundings ? are they on TT or another site I can access or ONLY pay sights ? pivotalweather. great site. just click on the map location for soundings. https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TJW014 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: NEXT SILLY QUESTION BUT-----> and it has probably been asked before even by me but where can someone look at the soundings ? are they on TT or another site I can access or ONLY pay sights ? On Tropical Tidbits, you can get soundings on some models, GFS, NAM, HRRR, etc. You can get soundings on Pivotal and College of DuPage's weather page Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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