NEG NAO Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Since there is a chance of at least advisory level snow and ice amounts across the region - discuss here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: Since there is a chance or at least advisory level snow and ice amounts across the region - discuss here And the 06z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 For a fuller picture of snow/sleet... CMC is all frozen from about New Brunswick to NYC through 7 pm Tuesday, when about 1" of LE has fallen (then another 0.7" of LE or so, mostly as rain, is my guess, as surface temps are in the upper 30s by 1 am Weds, the next timepoint and are just at or slightly above 32F at 7 pm, so the changeover appears imminent). This is several inches of snow, as per the first map, then a couple of inches of sleet (~6" worth of snow at 10:1) for the precip through 7 pm. For the 12Z NAM, the Pivotal map shows the snow through Tuesday early morning (more to the S of 195/276 due to the Monday system) and then the snow changes to sleet for most of CNJ/NNJ until early afternoon (where soundings from Trenton to NYC looks like sleet, changing to rain somewhere around 1-2 pm Tues), where one can estimate the amount of sleet by subtracting the Pivotal snow from the Tidbits "snow" (which is snow + sleet, all at a 10:1 ratio). Same for the GFS, which shows a few inches of snow on Pivotal, then an inch or so of sleet (subtracting the PW snow from the total snow/sleet on TT) for the 95 corridor/NYC Metro. This is a decent increase from 0Z/6Z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 There'll definitely be more ice/sleet than snow. Surface temps will struggle to hit freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Ukie has several inches of snow with a nice thump before temps warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metasequoia Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Ukie has several inches of snow with a nice thump before temps warm. Sounds like a reduction from the 0Z run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Euro anyone ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 37 minutes ago, Metasequoia said: Sounds like a reduction from the 0Z run... Pretty similiar to 0z Euro is a tick colder. It's still below freezing for NYC at 4pm tuesday. A little snow then alot of sleet then rain with a few inches of frozen precip. This is going to turn to be either all snow or a rain event. I doubt we see several hours of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 My snow forecast for Tuesday was just increased from 3-5 to 5-8. I'm 20 miles north of 84 so expecting a moderate front end thump before changeover to sleet and ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 19 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Pretty similiar to 0z Euro is a tick colder. It's still below freezing for NYC at 4pm tuesday. A little snow then alot of sleet then rain with a few inches of frozen precip. This is going to turn to be either all snow or a rain event. I doubt we see several hours of sleet. Why? 850s are warm and if surface stays cold that's a recipe for sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Why? 850s are warm and if surface stays cold that's a recipe for sleet Several hours of sleet? When was the last time that happened ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Several hours of sleet? When was the last time that happened ? I don't even remember the last time I had several hours of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Several hours of sleet? When was the last time that happened ? March 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: March 2017 That was amazing. 9.5 inches of pure snow sleet mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 EURO quite a bit colder than 0z. Snow is still about 4 hours worth but the ice is about 3 hours longer in duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: That was amazing. 9.5 inches of pure snow sleet mix. Yup got about 8.5” of that as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 32 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said: My snow forecast for Tuesday was just increased from 3-5 to 5-8. I'm 20 miles north of 84 so expecting a moderate front end thump before changeover to sleet and ZR. That sounds similar to the event a couple of weeks ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 FWIW I have been checking TWC forecast since yesterday for my area and it has been bouncing up and down with snow totals since yesterday A M----> It was 1-3 then by noon I went to 3 -5 then last night it was upped to 5 -8 and this morning it was down to 1 - 3 and now at 2 pm its back to 3 - 5 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 14 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: I don't even remember the last time I had several hours of snow Nov 2018 here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Brasiluvsnow said: FWIW I have been checking TWC forecast since yesterday for my area and it has been bouncing up and down with snow totals since yesterday A M----> It was 1-3 then by noon I went to 3 -5 then last night it was upped to 5 -8 and this morning it was down to 1 - 3 and now at 2 pm its back to 3 - 5 lol TWC is a pure one model hugger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: EURO quite a bit colder than 0z. Snow is still about 4 hours worth but the ice is about 3 hours longer in duration. Looks like 1-3 for Sunday night into Monday and another 1-3 for Tuesday for the coast with more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 What is the timeframe of this event? What time does it start and changeover to rain? I just want enough snow/sleet in the morning that my company will advise us to work from home....so I can't do a single thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MANDA Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Although likely overdone EURO shows significant amount of freezing rain over NNJ, especially inland. Did pretty well with ZR on last event, although a bit overdone. Surface temps solidly below freezing for long duration so threat of significant icing, up to 1/2" is possibility. Lets hope is more IP than ZR. Half inch ice accretion is significant and can bring down tree limbs and power lines. Euro currently showing 1/4 - 1/2 amounts NNJ with some locally higher amounts Sussex County. Thinking the 1"+ QPF is likely also overdone so would expect ZR totals to be near lower end of EURO range. This post in reference to Monday late afternoon into Tuesday event. The Sunday night into early Monday event looks insignificant for metro NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 40 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks like 1-3 for Sunday night into Monday and another 1-3 for Tuesday for the coast with more inland. I think it’s 4-5 in NYC on the Euro. I’m not buying into the sleet idea. It’s just too uncommon of an occurrence in these events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 59 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Several hours of sleet? When was the last time that happened ? March 2017, Feb and March 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, weatherpruf said: March 2017, Feb and March 2007. I know someone who took a look at events like this and said sleet duration over 1 hour generally only occurs in events where NYC never changes to rain. In events where they go over it only happens around 10% of the time. I believe the February 2014 storm where parts of Queens and WRN LI saw 4-5 inch per hour rates was the last case I remember of long duration sleet and I believe NYC never went over to rain in that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Hard to figure on any (much) improvement in just 72hrs FUGLY location of secondary 997mb over central Mass https://ocean.weather.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I know someone who took a look at events like this and said sleet duration over 1 hour generally only occurs in events where NYC never changes to rain. In events where they go over it only happens around 10% of the time. I believe the February 2014 storm where parts of Queens and WRN LI saw 4-5 inch per hour rates was the last case I remember of long duration sleet and I believe NYC never went over to rain in that storm I don't think the ones I mentioned changed over. With a changeover it usually only sleets briefly. Likewise in the Jan 2011 event that delivered 19 inches to CNJ it flipped to rain for a while then flipped briefly back to sleet before snowing heavily again. Those 2007 storms were unique and part of a winter where it just couldn't snow. ( like this one ) Given this year, I expect some snow ( or not? ) then plain rain down here. Hope we can get a few inches first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Nam shifted south with wave 1. Starting to think it's a dusting to 1" kind of event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Does anyone here know if the TrueWeather UK snow maps or the various Euro snow maps we see (StormVista usually), which report "snow" are truly all snow, like the Pivotal maps, or if they're actually combined snow/sleet at a 10:1 ratio for everything frozen, like the Tidbits maps are? Would be nice to know, since I've seen people debating it and I'm not sure they know for sure. @SnowGoose69 @purduewx80 @forkyfork or others who might know for sure? Thanks, in advance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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