Newman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 24 minutes ago, penndotguy said: Do you still have light snow? It looks like the precip is hitting a wall from temple north No just an occasional flurry here and there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 WXSIM with 6z data with 1.3" already on the ground - nice forecast so far. WXSIM shows light now and IP continuing most of the day with another 1" or so accumulating by 10pm tonight. Snow should become all sleet/IP by midnight and become moderate by 3am tomorrow morning. Sleet moderate at times will continue to fall till around 10am with 2" to 3" more inches of snow/sleet falling before transitioning to rain by 1pm tomorrow afternoon. Total snow accumulation 4" to 7" . Wxsim still shows another 3.15" of rain falling tomorrow PM into Wed AM before ending Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: WXSIM with 6z data with 1.3" already on the ground - nice forecast so far. WXSIM shows light now and IP continuing most of the day with another 1" or so accumulating by 10pm tonight. Snow should become all sleet/IP by midnight and become moderate by 3am tomorrow morning. Sleet moderate at times will continue to fall till around 10am with 2" to 3" more inches of snow/sleet falling before transitioning to rain by 1pm tomorrow afternoon. Total snow accumulation 4" to 7" . Wxsim still shows another 3.15" of rain falling tomorrow PM into Wed AM before ending Where is this additional 3.15" rain coming from? The wxsim keeps showing this tomorrow night but I havent seen anything close to those totals on any guidance. Matter of fact a few hint that some spots see flakes redevelop towards the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Latest NAMs buying into other mesos now has IP and fzra here thru mid afternoon Tueaday now. Notable colder trend with 2m temps I can only imagine the mesos are now accounting for some snowpack at the surface. Looks like alot less rain too....basically a dryslot then a quick punch thru of the cold front with some convection possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Latest NAMs buying into other mesos now has IP and fzra here thru mid afternoon Tueaday now. Notable colder trend with 2m temps I can only imagine the mesos are now accounting for some snowpack at the surface. Looks like alot less rain too....basically a dryslot then a quick punch thru of the cold front with some convection possible. Yeah, definitely looked colder. Lots of sleet huh? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, JMcCaughey42 said: Yeah, definitely looked colder. Lots of sleet huh? Looks that way. VD sleet storm redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Dream Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 9 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks that way. VD sleet storm redux Hmm I wonder what schools will do tomorrow, sounds like it could be messy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Where is this additional 3.15" rain coming from? The wxsim keeps showing this tomorrow night but I havent seen anything close to those totals on any guidance. Matter of fact a few hint that some spots see flakes redevelop towards the end. I thought the same thing. Not a single model prints out that much rain, let alone precip in any form melted equivalent. Got to be something wrong there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 hours ago, hazwoper said: I thought the same thing. Not a single model prints out that much rain, let alone precip in any form melted equivalent. Got to be something wrong there.... Yep - no idea - let's see what it does with 12z data in about 15 minutes or so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Latest WXSIM with 12z data has no snow just some light sleet starting this PM and continuing all night with around 1" of sleet accumulation by 7am tomorrow morning. Sleet becomes moderate by 830am tomorrow morning with another 1" to 2" of IP accumulating before a change to ZR by 1130am Then ZR thru 3pm before temps rise above freezing by 330pm. Then another 1.18" of rain before it ends by 330am on Wednesday. Total precip 2.81" with 1.44" falling as some form of frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Fwiw 12z euro picked up a notch for winter weather showing several inches of SN,IP, grauppel snizzle rimmed flakes etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 12z runs bring the precipitation back quicker and more robustly into the retreating cold is the biggest difference over 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tibet Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 11 minutes ago, RedSky said: 12z runs bring the precipitation back quicker and more robustly into the retreating cold is the biggest difference over 0z To clarify, that translates to an earlier start to the second round event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, Tibet said: To clarify, that translates to an earlier start to the second round event? ECM is an earlier start and if it is to be believed 3-4" of snow before the change to mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Hrrr is taking lsd apparently....has my area in Bucks under moderate snow (lighter here and there at times) from 7pm tonight thru 7am tomorrow. Not sleet. Yet snowfall map has .25" snow. Loving the surface maps...colder and earlier onset, but the snowmaps are a complete joke. There is no way many hours of mod snow falls and we only get .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Hrrr is taking lsd apparently....has my area in Bucks under moderate snow (lighter here and there at times) from 7pm tonight thru 7am tomorrow. Not sleet. Yet snowfall map has .25" snow. Loving the surface maps...colder and earlier onset, but the snowmaps are a complete joke. There is no way many hours of mod snow falls and we only get .25" Lol I was just looking at that and thinking the same thing. Either way I think the mesos are picking up on the CAD at this point and see something the global don’t. I think we start frozen longer than being forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 57 minutes ago, RedSky said: Fwiw 12z euro picked up a notch for winter weather showing several inches of SN,IP, grauppel snizzle rimmed flakes etc. Any dippin dots? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 47 minutes ago, KamuSnow said: Any dippin dots? Yup a personal favorite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 WSW for Berks, Lehigh. 5-7". WowSent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormman96 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, Fields27 said: WSW for Berks, Lehigh. 5-7". Wow Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Also same for my area in upper bucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Mt.Holly continues the Winter Weather Advisory here which is in effect until 6 pm tomorrow for 2-4" of snow but has increased ice accumulation to one tenth of an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Also same for my area in upper bucks What guidance are they going with? Sent from my HTC6535LVW using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Only in an advisory here in NW Chesco but my point and click a bit more aggressive (4" to 8" of snow possible??) - likely the usual problem of unable to break out NW Chesco from SW Chesco... Snow before 3am, then snow and sleet. Low around 27. East wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 9am, then freezing rain and sleet between 9am and 3pm, then rain and sleet after 3pm. High near 36. East wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Only in an advisory here in NW Chesco but my point and click a bit more aggressive (4" to 8" of snow possible??) - likely the usual problem of unable to break out NW Chesco from SW Chesco... Snow before 3am, then snow and sleet. Low around 27. East wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 9am, then freezing rain and sleet between 9am and 3pm, then rain and sleet after 3pm. High near 36. East wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. The line is already drawn for them too: rt. 30 ... I share your sentiments Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Only in an advisory here in NW Chesco but my point and click a bit more aggressive (4" to 8" of snow possible??) - likely the usual problem of unable to break out NW Chesco from SW Chesco... Snow before 3am, then snow and sleet. Low around 27. East wind 5 to 9 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Tuesday Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 9am, then freezing rain and sleet between 9am and 3pm, then rain and sleet after 3pm. High near 36. East wind 10 to 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. How about NE chesco? A little less snow and possibly switching over to rain/sleet sooner? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 35 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said: How about NE chesco? A little less snow and possibly switching over to rain/sleet sooner? Probably. If this is being marketed as a CAD event then it stands to reason that areas with lower and/or less hills won't score as well and the mid atmosphere will have thicker layer of warmer air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 setting the bar here at 2" snow/sleet...not positive I'll make it. bad trends today at least down here...looks like a hour or 2 of snow tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Expecting 1.5" snow and .5" IP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoolHandMike Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 To my untrained eye, that's some impressive CAD over the Appalachians along the MD line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 After sitting 3-10 miles above the northern edge of radar indicated snowfall since noon, it is finally snowing lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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