Delaware Valley Weather Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: HDRRP better. GfS coming in colder and wetter. GFS is 10 degrees colder than 6z along 95 Tuesday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 GGEM starts snowing Sunday 11pm ish and doesnt stop until flipping to sleet lunchtime Tuesday then rain by mid afternoon. Snow maps should be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, Newman said: Remember that the GFS sucks with thermals, especially in CAD situations. My call right now would be a general 3-5" before icing. I think this is also a situation where there could be a sneaky warm layer somewhere which limits snowfall but raises sleet potential. I agree with this call 3-5" seems very reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 CMC snowfall before any switch to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Delaware Valley Weather Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Latest Wxsim with 6z data - not too much wintry once past Tuesday AM... rush not bad at all Paul, does wxsim use 3km nam data or just 12km nam? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Snows straight thru lunch Tuesday between light and intermittent moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 HDERPS does same dry line never makes it to Mason dixon Southern pa no separation between waves fwiw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 FV3CPO on board only a small break between waves. Better CAD and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Barring a total fail looks like the UMET and GGEM leading the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: HDERPS does same dry line never makes it to Mason dixon Southern pa no separation between waves fwiw HRDPS is very nice for Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, Newman said: HRDPS is very nice for Sunday night All the pieces falling into place for Sun thru early Tues. @The Iceman needs to start all the threat threads from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 32 minutes ago, J.P. said: Paul, does wxsim use 3km nam data or just 12km nam? I can't tell it just says NAM..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Starting to believe this is that "one storm" even if it's only a SECS and not all that big Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, RedSky said: Starting to believe this is that "one storm" even if it's only a SECS and not all that big We still have ~5 weeks of potential winter weather, I'll keep my fingers crossed. Plus, dont most stronger coastal system occur in Feb/March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 35 minutes ago, ChasingFlakes said: We still have ~5 weeks of potential winter weather, I'll keep my fingers crossed. Plus, dont most stronger coastal system occur in Feb/March? Just saying it's possible considering the difficult winter it's been and the generally not conducive environment that follows this storm the following week to ten days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 12z Ukie still loving it 14-16" Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Wxsim with 12z data obviously trended colder and icier based on the latest models. It now has snow arriving by 830pm tomorrow night with moderate snow at midnight with 1" of snow by 1am Monday. Light snow and flurries continue till 6am with 1.5" of snow. Light snow and sleet arrive again by 530pm with moderate IP by midnight - IP over to ZR by 930am with a total of 3" of IP and then another 0.60" of ZR before rising above freezing by noon - Heavy rain all PM with 2.50" of rain before ending late at night with temps rising to 37 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
crypt88 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Looks like slop, then thunderstorms.. Wait a little while and the weather changes. A winter that was hyped from the beginning and failed to deliver!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: All the pieces falling into place for Sun thru early Tues. @The Iceman needs to start all the threat threads from here on out. That's what we said last year isn't it? He has some good karma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Euro beefed up Sunday night. 2-3" across SE PA and southern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Cut back a little in PA for wave two. 4-6" event for this entire region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 I would mortgage the farm for this one, got to get the taste of what feels like 100" rain to 1" snow out of my mouth So much time for the wheels to come flying off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, RedSky said: 12z Ukie still loving it 14-16" Baltimore Dang that jawn like McDonald's.....I'm lovin' it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, ChescoPaWxman said: Wxsim with 12z data obviously trended colder and icier based on the latest models. It now has snow arriving by 830pm tomorrow night with moderate snow at midnight with 1" of snow by 1am Monday. Light snow and flurries continue till 6am with 1.5" of snow. Light snow and sleet arrive again by 530pm with moderate IP by midnight - IP over to ZR by 930am with a total of 3" of IP and then another 0.60" of ZR before rising above freezing by noon - Heavy rain all PM with 2.50" of rain before ending late at night with temps rising to 37 degrees Paul you mentioned before that IP is counted as seasonal snowfall. How would we add that here? As a liquid equivalent with a 10:1 ratio?? Do we just take a standard snow board measurement? Anyone else feel free to chime in please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 56 minutes ago, wkd said: That's what we said last year isn't it? He has some good karma. I lost mine somewhere. Last one at range (5 days+) I started was the January 2016 Blizzard. Since then I've had several failed threads even at 3 days range. Yes, let Iceman handle it from here out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 45 minutes ago, RedSky said: Cut back a little in PA for wave two. 4-6" event for this entire region. So 2-3" with wave 1 and another 2-3" with wave 2? Is that correct Red? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: So 2-3" with wave 1 and another 2-3" with wave 2? Is that correct Red? That's the plan for what it's worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Paul you mentioned before that IP is counted as seasonal snowfall. How would we add that here? As a liquid equivalent with a 10:1 ratio?? Do we just take a standard snow board measurement? Anyone else feel free to chime in please. Straight 1:1 measurement, no conversion. Maybe clear your snowboard pre-sleet if you want to measure what has fallen vs. snow depth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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