The Iceman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 With pretty unanimous support of at least some frozen with some guidance spitting out borderline warning level events, figured it's time for a legit storm threat thread. Let's hope this is the first of many hits in the coming weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 8, 2019 Author Share Posted February 8, 2019 EPS looks really good. Holds serve with the OP but the high is a little stronger and therefore temps a little cooler. I like where we stand right now but hope we get a little bit of breathing room tonight and DC gets back in the game. The better they do, the better we tend to do in these situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, The Iceman said: EPS looks really good. Holds serve with the OP but the high is a little stronger and therefore temps a little cooler. I like where we stand right now but hope we get a little bit of breathing room tonight and DC gets back in the game. The better they do, the better we tend to do in these situations. Thought it was weird the NAM slightly backed off the CAD look. Red flag? 3k looks good for Sunday night tho...may end up with more snow out of that tbh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Hopefully the 18z suite was just a hiccup else @The Iceman and I are banned indefinitely from beginning storm threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Difficult to say we have two choices 1) GFS is lost or 2) The model with the least snow wins this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 0z ECM and UKMET are a relative crushing for this region of 4-8" 0z GFS no changes maybe a tad worse lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 4 hours ago, RedSky said: 0z ECM and UKMET are a relative crushing for this region of 4-8" 0z GFS no changes maybe a tad worse lol Are you inland? Inland area will do very good with this storm. Even the coast will start as frozen precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 The Euro has the early Monday morning snows come through and drop coatings to 2" but then the next storm is almost right on its heels with more light snow breaking out by Monday afternoon. Moderate snows over spread the region by late Monday evening and places like the Lehigh Valley see decent snow for 6 or 7 hours until turning to some significant icing and eventually rain. It seems like we may see snow enter the region Monday afternoon/evening rather than Tuesday morning as originally progged a couple days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 8 minutes ago, Newman said: The Euro has the early Monday morning snows come through and drop coatings to 2" but then the next storm is almost right on its heels with more light snow breaking out by Monday afternoon. Moderate snows over spread the region by late Monday evening and places like the Lehigh Valley see decent snow for 6 or 7 hours until turning to some significant icing and eventually rain. It seems like we may see snow enter the region Monday afternoon/evening rather than Tuesday morning as originally progged a couple days ago. CMC says no break really between systems starts snowing Sunday night and continues thu the evening Monday. Doesnt go above freezing til Tuesday. It and the UKIE look nice. Fits my idea from a couple days ago where wave 1 will be a bigger player then wave 2 on its heels into a thump then mix then rain. Hopefully there are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 RGEM is 1-3" thru Monday AM for SE PA. Similar setup with not much of a break and snow continuing intermittently all day Monday steadier later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 16 minutes ago, Newman said: The Euro has the early Monday morning snows come through and drop coatings to 2" but then the next storm is almost right on its heels with more light snow breaking out by Monday afternoon. Moderate snows over spread the region by late Monday evening and places like the Lehigh Valley see decent snow for 6 or 7 hours until turning to some significant icing and eventually rain. It seems like we may see snow enter the region Monday afternoon/evening rather than Tuesday morning as originally progged a couple days ago. How's it looking out our way? I go on TT but finding my way around the site is confusing to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: RGEM is 1-3" thru Monday AM for SE PA. Similar setup with not much of a break and snow continuing intermittently all day Monday steadier later in the day. Monday could be a timing nightmare for schools. Sunday night/Monday morning snows might trigger 2 hour delays, but with the potential for snow to break out again in the afternoon, or maybe not even stop at all, the closing scenario could be on the table. Then I think Tuesday is at the minimum a 2 hour delay for southern areas with closings likely in the Lehigh Valley and Poconos. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 18 minutes ago, Newman said: The Euro has the early Monday morning snows come through and drop coatings to 2" but then the next storm is almost right on its heels with more light snow breaking out by Monday afternoon. Moderate snows over spread the region by late Monday evening and places like the Lehigh Valley see decent snow for 6 or 7 hours until turning to some significant icing and eventually rain. It seems like we may see snow enter the region Monday afternoon/evening rather than Tuesday morning as originally progged a couple days ago. Faster it gets here was thought to bode better for us before HP pulls away so that's better than nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, penndotguy said: How's it looking out our way? I go on TT but finding my way around the site is confusing to me Euro has around an inch for the Sunday night light snows, with light snow picking back up Monday afternoon. Heaviest stuff comes through around 11pm to 5 am Tuesday before going over to some ice and eventually plain rain. Total snow from second wave, not including Sunday night, is around 3-5". Lots of ice on the Euro Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 If it stays how it is, I'm thinking I'll end up with 3" from sun night to Tuesday am before changeover to rain/sleet. Knowing how this winter has gone it will be more like 1-2" though. Hoping things trend colder, I was hoping NE PA or the Catskills stay all snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 After a 6 to 8 hour period of decent snows, the Lehigh Valley sees more than 6 hours of icing or sleet on the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChasingFlakes Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 3 minutes ago, Newman said: After a 6 to 8 hour period of decent snows, the Lehigh Valley sees more than 6 hours of icing or sleet on the Euro. Is that the same for Northern Jersey or less icing because they're coastal? I do a lot of work up by Allentown and Northern Jersey like Perth Amboy, etc.. I'm thinking work will be called off if there's that much icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, ChasingFlakes said: Is that the same for Northern Jersey or less icing because they're coastal? I do a lot of work up by Allentown and Northern Jersey like Perth Amboy, etc.. I'm thinking work will be called off if there's that much icing. About the same with Northern Jersey. Might see the moderate snows enter in a bit later due to the snows coming from the SW, but amounts, icing, and the overall specifics are similar from the Lehigh Valley into Northern Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Latest Wxsim with 6z data - not too much wintry once past Tuesday AM... rush not bad at all Sunday night: Cloudy in the evening, becoming dense overcast after midnight. A slight chance of snow in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Low 28. Wind south-southwest near calm in the evening, becoming southeast after midnight. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Little or no snow accumulation expected. Monday: Dense overcast. A slight chance of snow in the morning, then a chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the afternoon. High 37. Wind east-northeast around 4 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly less than a tenth of an inch. Little or no snow or ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Monday night: Dense overcast. Sleet likely in the evening, then a mix of freezing rain and sleet likely after midnight. Low 30. Wind chill ranging from 21 to 27. Wind east-northeast around 8 mph in the evening, becoming 12 mph, gusting to 17 mph, after midnight. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Ice (on ground) accumulation about a quarter inch. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Tuesday: Dense overcast. A mix of rain and freezing rain likely in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Breezy. High 43. Wind east-northeast around 14 mph, gusting to 21 mph, in the morning, becoming 10 mph, gusting to 18 mph, in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly around 2 inches. No ice (on ground) accumulation expected. Above-ground freezing rain accumulation up to 0.1 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 SE PA NAMing at 12z for tomorrow night and early Monday morning per the NAM. Eta: 2-3" with 4" lollis especially into S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 12z NAM for just Sunday night and Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 30 minutes ago, Newman said: 12z NAM for just Sunday night and Monday morning Biggest event of the season for some right there. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 2 hours ago, Newman said: After a 6 to 8 hour period of decent snows, the Lehigh Valley sees more than 6 hours of icing or sleet on the Euro. Not really liking the icing factor. too many trees around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 RGEM Sunday Night. General 1-2" with 3" tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 HDRRP better. GfS coming in colder and wetter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 29 minutes ago, Newman said: RGEM Sunday Night. General 1-2" with 3" tops. That's a SECS this year for us....true story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 GFS playing catch up. 1" wave 1 then 2-4" wave 2 for extreme SE PA before torchy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Talk about a wall of HP! Wth lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 GGEM is gorgeous relatively speaking with all things considered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: GFS playing catch up. 1" wave 1 then 2-4" wave 2 for extreme SE PA before torchy rain. Remember that the GFS sucks with thermals, especially in CAD situations. My call right now would be a general 3-5" before icing. I think this is also a situation where there could be a sneaky warm layer somewhere which limits snowfall but raises sleet potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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