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Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper


Baroclinic Zone

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Just now, 8611Blizz said:

So how much rain are we talking about on Tuesday? 1"?

I would wait 2 days.  Every piece has a good front ender but the euro really went from the best to the worst between 12z to 0z.  Doesn’t take much to make a big difference though.  It’s more like are we getting a sloppy storm or a colder swfe.  

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1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

So how much rain are we talking about on Tuesday? 1"?

It's probably snow to ice inland and snow to rain on coast, but not after 3-6 or so on the euro. It's not bad, but of course it trends warmer. Hopefully the GFS is right. Euro has barfed on itself last two days in the PAC NW. 

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's probably snow to ice inland and snow to rain on coast, but not after 3-6 or so on the euro. It's not bad, but of course it trends warmer. Hopefully the GFS is right. Euro has barfed on itself last two days in the PAC NW. 

That's fine. Rain is much preferred to any sleet/ice/frz combo.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro went from one of the coldest runs to the one of the warmest. How's that for consistency. 

If we keep it warm aloft going forward, gonna have to watch for bigger ice inland. 

 

The modeling is getting better....I think we're seeing our rains 12 hours earlier than we had in prior storms.  :)

 

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This seems a little bullish following the overnight run.  They're keeping it mighty cool Tuesday night.  Methinks we might see a lot more taint.

 
Monday Night
A chance of snow after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 10. North wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 25. Light northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Tuesday Night
Snow before 9pm, then snow and sleet. Low around 22. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Wednesday
Snow likely, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. West wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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11 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

This seems a little bullish following the overnight run.  They're keeping it mighty cool Tuesday night.  Methinks we might see a lot more taint.

 
Monday Night
A chance of snow after 3am. Partly cloudy, with a low around 10. North wind 3 to 5 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday
Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 25. Light northeast wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Tuesday Night
Snow before 9pm, then snow and sleet. Low around 22. Light east wind. Chance of precipitation is 100%.
Wednesday
Snow likely, mainly before 10am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Light and variable wind becoming west 5 to 10 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Wednesday Night
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 21. West wind 9 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

You can't change run to run Mike its not worth it. Scooter lives and dies every single run of the Euro GFS. Pretty funny to watch. Its going to take a couple of days before we know fine deets. Suffice to say definitely watchable. 

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What I don’t understand is yesterday when the runs showed that incredible high  strength and position peeps were pretty enthusiastic and seemingly confident, I mean damn, when Ryan starts posting and getting excited it’s a good measure for CT residents to begin to pay attention. Why does one warm run send heads to the Tobin, shouldn’t we at least see what today has to say?

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