ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:11 AM, CoastalWx said: I wonder if we see a tuck as well late tomorrow night. I'm having a little trouble seeing SNH warm as much as guidance has, especially with that high location. Expand Yeah, the guidance doesn't really want to produce a tuck because it has rotted out the airmass in SE NH....but I'm getting more skeptical of that as we get closer. This is a serious airmass. Look at these temps/dews being advected down. That high doesn't really move that far as the storm is moving in either. If the airmass in interior SE NH is still mostly arctic in nature....then we could get a really nasty cold tuck as the secondary tracks by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Upton likes the ice threat in ct.. they think some places could see up to 0.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Think that's a slam dunk guys…but it's also possible that we don't tuck because there's no real reason to slosh back cuz just being underestimated in the bottom layer all along with more ageo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:15 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, the guidance doesn't really want to produce a tuck because it has rotted out the airmass in SE NH....but I'm getting more skeptical of that as we get closer. This is a serious airmass. Look at these temps/dews being advected down. That high doesn't really move that far as the storm is moving in either. If the airmass in interior SE NH is still mostly arctic in nature....then we could get a really nasty cold tuck as the secondary tracks by. Expand Yeah. It's different from the last event when we lost the drain. Should have a decent drain with that high north of maine. It will be torched above 950, but I feel like some of that cold will slosh into central and NE MA Monday morning. At least that's what past experience says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuildingScienceWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 I'm all set with the ZR... Not sure how many more limbs we have around here to fall anyways. Hoping to get scalped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:10 AM, ORH_wxman said: Lol...pretty close on that. Almost has Mitch pinging while the Cape is still snowing. This is still one of my favorite sfc maps: Expand all time classic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 26.1 / -2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Organizing Low Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 heading to stowe tomorow morning and back later in the day hopefully before the snow starts up. parents flights from ottawa to california (through YYZ toronto) tomorrow already cancelled (!) as of this morning, so that was a relief - obviously lots of hype up there for a repeat of dec 16 2007 which it wont be. still glad they cancelled the flights thanks to lots of lead time on this one. this will just be a regular winter storm up here IMO. nevertheless 8-12 is reasonable, anything more a bonus, my call i think the sleet will push further north and eclipse BTV, although i certainly do respect the cold- but this is not looking like a dec 16/07 redux as Will has pointed out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:31 AM, Organizing Low said: heading to stowe tomorow morning and back later in the day hopefully before the snow starts up. parents flights from ottawa to california (through YYZ toronto) tomorrow already cancelled (!) as of this morning, so that was a relief - obviously lots of hype up there for a repeat of dec 16 2007 which it wont be. still glad they cancelled the flights thanks to lots of lead time on this one. this will just be a regular winter storm up here IMO. nevertheless 8-12 is reasonable, anything more a bonus, my call i think the sleet will push further north and eclipse BTV, although i certainly do respect the cold- but this is not looking like a dec 16/07 redux as Will has pointed out. Expand The biggest bust in this storm I think is going to be surface temps over interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:33 AM, ORH_wxman said: The biggest bust in this storm I think is going to be surface temps over interior SNE. Expand Agreed with that. HREF pretty torchy in mid levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Can't get quite enough difluence mechanics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:18 AM, ineedsnow said: Upton likes the ice threat in ct.. they think some places could see up to 0.4 Expand 0.6 here last February, didn't do any damage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 GFS a bit warmer aloft, but still stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:31 AM, Organizing Low said: heading to stowe tomorow morning and back later in the day hopefully before the snow starts up. parents flights from ottawa to california (through YYZ toronto) tomorrow already cancelled (!) as of this morning, so that was a relief - obviously lots of hype up there for a repeat of dec 16 2007 which it wont be. still glad they cancelled the flights thanks to lots of lead time on this one. this will just be a regular winter storm up here IMO. nevertheless 8-12 is reasonable, anything more a bonus, my call i think the sleet will push further north and eclipse BTV, although i certainly do respect the cold- but this is not looking like a dec 16/07 redux as Will has pointed out. Expand Could I ask about the significance of that event? My weenie memory is not helping me with it, and Google seemed like it was rather middling in New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:41 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: Could I ask about the significance of that event? My weenie memory is not helping me with it, and Google seemed like it was rather middling in New England Expand Poorly timed snowfall forecast. Lots of people caught on the roads if I remember correctly. Snow came in like a wall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:40 AM, CoastalWx said: GFS a bit warmer aloft, but still stubborn. Expand Ridiculous...still doesn't change BOS over just after 03z. Lol. NAM flips them at 00z, maybe even slightly earlier....RGEM is pretty much right at 00z. RPM hangs on at BOS until 03z too...kind of weird it has been siding with the GFS on that one...RPM isn't really afraid of torchy midlevels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:41 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: Could I ask about the significance of that event? My weenie memory is not helping me with it, and Google seemed like it was rather middling in New England Expand Solid SWFE. 12-18" up in BTV area with no sleet and a big 6-12" in the NE half of SNE. Large SNE gradient from SW to NE. Tolland scalping while +SN at BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:44 AM, Sugarloaf1989 said: Poorly timed snowfall forecast. Lots of people caught on the roads if I remember correctly. Snow came in like a wall. Expand Oh...duh...the gridlock storm? If so, then yeah, very memorable. Awesome, if not huge, just due to the timing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:46 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: Oh...duh...the gridlock storm? If so, then yeah, very memorable. Awesome, if not huge, just due to the timing Expand No, it wasn't that storm....that was 12/13/07 just a few days earlier....12/16/07 was on a Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:45 AM, ORH_wxman said: Ridiculous...still doesn't change BOS over just after 03z. Lol. NAM flips them at 00z, maybe even slightly earlier....RGEM is pretty much right at 00z. RPM hangs on at BOS until 03z too...kind of weird it has been siding with the GFS on that one...RPM isn't really afraid of torchy midlevels. Expand Wonder if we can get some low level flake generation too. I feel like the last few times I thought it may happen, it did not occur..but with such cold below 900..maybe they can generate crap flakes with the sleet and add an inch or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Man that 3km NAM is even warmer than before. Has about 0.2" QPF as sleet here now, and 1.0" as snow. Quite the model battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:47 AM, ORH_wxman said: No, it wasn't that storm....that was 12/13/07 just a few days earlier....12/16/07 was on a Sunday morning. Expand Ok. That makes more sense, but it seemed like the Sunday event was fairly routine in SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Think this will be pretty uniform across the state. A few inches for most in CT then sleet/zr. Send me your totals at the end... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:49 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: Ok. That makes more sense, but it seemed like the Sunday event was fairly routine in SNE Expand It was notable for the positive bust....most were under a WWA for 2-4/3-5....and 8-10 fell north of the pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:50 AM, ORH_wxman said: It was notable for the positive bust....most were under a WWA for 2-4/3-5....and 8-10 fell north of the pike. Expand Well...that sure isn’t happening... I’ve gained a new respect for the NAM thermal profiles this winter...maybe just the type of systems that we have gotten. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeonPeon Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Nam says I get zero, GFS says I get 4. The difference between those for someone starved of winter is massive. I'm hoping the forecast of 2 inches is right, but I wouldn't be surprised if the thump was limp and I quickly got flipped off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:15 AM, ORH_wxman said: Yeah, the guidance doesn't really want to produce a tuck because it has rotted out the airmass in SE NH....but I'm getting more skeptical of that as we get closer. This is a serious airmass. Look at these temps/dews being advected down. That high doesn't really move that far as the storm is moving in either. If the airmass in interior SE NH is still mostly arctic in nature....then we could get a really nasty cold tuck as the secondary tracks by. Expand It is a frigid air mass. I'm down to 1F and MVL says 0/-4. Bodes well for you guys down south at the SFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Wow GFS is much warmer. Gets the 850 0C up into this area now. That's a huge shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 On 2/12/2019 at 3:34 AM, CT Rain said: Agreed with that. HREF pretty torchy in mid levels. Expand On 2/12/2019 at 3:40 AM, CoastalWx said: GFS a bit warmer aloft, but still stubborn. Expand Wild that model doesn't have sleet getting into NH until after 06z. At 03z it's off from the HREF by about 100 miles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 HREF is a nice thump in the rt 2 corridor to about BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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