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Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper


Baroclinic Zone

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I wonder if we see a tuck as well late tomorrow night. I'm having a little trouble seeing SNH warm as much as guidance has, especially with that high location. 

Yeah, the guidance doesn't really want to produce a tuck because it has rotted out the airmass in SE NH....but I'm getting more skeptical of that as we get closer. This is a serious airmass. Look at these temps/dews being advected down. That high doesn't really move that far as the storm is moving in either.

 

If the airmass in interior SE NH is still mostly arctic in nature....then we could get a really nasty cold tuck as the secondary tracks by.

 

 

 

 

Feb11_sfc10pm.gif

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, the guidance doesn't really want to produce a tuck because it has rotted out the airmass in SE NH....but I'm getting more skeptical of that as we get closer. This is a serious airmass. Look at these temps/dews being advected down. That high doesn't really move that far as the storm is moving in either.

 

If the airmass in interior SE NH is still mostly arctic in nature....then we could get a really nasty cold tuck as the secondary tracks by.

 

 

 

 

Feb11_sfc10pm.gif

Yeah. It's different from the last event when we lost the drain. Should have a decent drain with that high north of maine. It will be torched above 950, but I feel like some of that cold will slosh into central and NE MA Monday morning. At least that's what past experience says. 

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heading to stowe tomorow morning and back later in the day hopefully before the snow starts up.

parents flights from ottawa to california (through YYZ toronto) tomorrow already cancelled (!) as of this morning, so that was a relief - obviously lots of hype up there for a repeat of dec 16 2007 which it wont be.  still glad they cancelled the flights thanks to lots of lead time on this one. 

this will just be a regular winter storm up here IMO.  nevertheless 8-12 is reasonable, anything more a bonus, my call i think the sleet will push further north and eclipse BTV, although i certainly do respect the cold- but this is not looking like a dec 16/07 redux as Will has pointed out.

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1 minute ago, Organizing Low said:

heading to stowe tomorow morning and back later in the day hopefully before the snow starts up.

parents flights from ottawa to california (through YYZ toronto) tomorrow already cancelled (!) as of this morning, so that was a relief - obviously lots of hype up there for a repeat of dec 16 2007 which it wont be.  still glad they cancelled the flights thanks to lots of lead time on this one. 

this will just be a regular winter storm up here IMO.  nevertheless 8-12 is reasonable, anything more a bonus, my call i think the sleet will push further north and eclipse BTV, although i certainly do respect the cold- but this is not looking like a dec 16/07 redux as Will has pointed out.

The biggest bust in this storm I think is going to be surface temps over interior SNE.

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8 minutes ago, Organizing Low said:

heading to stowe tomorow morning and back later in the day hopefully before the snow starts up.

parents flights from ottawa to california (through YYZ toronto) tomorrow already cancelled (!) as of this morning, so that was a relief - obviously lots of hype up there for a repeat of dec 16 2007 which it wont be.  still glad they cancelled the flights thanks to lots of lead time on this one. 

this will just be a regular winter storm up here IMO.  nevertheless 8-12 is reasonable, anything more a bonus, my call i think the sleet will push further north and eclipse BTV, although i certainly do respect the cold- but this is not looking like a dec 16/07 redux as Will has pointed out.

Could I ask about the significance of that event? My weenie memory is not helping me with it, and Google seemed like it was rather middling in New England

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

GFS a bit warmer aloft, but still stubborn. 

Ridiculous...still doesn't change BOS over just after 03z. Lol.

NAM flips them at 00z, maybe even slightly earlier....RGEM is pretty much right at 00z.

 

RPM hangs on at BOS until 03z too...kind of weird it has been siding with the GFS on that one...RPM isn't really afraid of torchy midlevels.

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4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Could I ask about the significance of that event? My weenie memory is not helping me with it, and Google seemed like it was rather middling in New England

Solid SWFE.   12-18" up in BTV area with no sleet and a big 6-12" in the NE half of SNE.

Large SNE gradient from SW to NE.  Tolland scalping while +SN at BOS.

IMG_2220.thumb.JPG.eaf1386daae12bc8c57216f70d0045da.JPG

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Just now, HoarfrostHubb said:

Oh...duh...the gridlock storm?   If so, then yeah,  very memorable.  Awesome, if not huge, just due to the timing

No, it wasn't that storm....that was 12/13/07 just a few days earlier....12/16/07 was on a Sunday morning.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Ridiculous...still doesn't change BOS over just after 03z. Lol.

NAM flips them at 00z, maybe even slightly earlier....RGEM is pretty much right at 00z.

 

RPM hangs on at BOS until 03z too...kind of weird it has been siding with the GFS on that one...RPM isn't really afraid of torchy midlevels.

Wonder if we can get some low level flake generation too. I feel like the last few times I thought it may happen, it did not occur..but with such cold below 900..maybe they can generate crap flakes with the sleet and add an inch or so. 

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35 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, the guidance doesn't really want to produce a tuck because it has rotted out the airmass in SE NH....but I'm getting more skeptical of that as we get closer. This is a serious airmass. Look at these temps/dews being advected down. That high doesn't really move that far as the storm is moving in either.

If the airmass in interior SE NH is still mostly arctic in nature....then we could get a really nasty cold tuck as the secondary tracks by.

It is a frigid air mass.  

I'm down to 1F and MVL says 0/-4.  

Bodes well for you guys down south at the SFC.

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