WinterWolf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Pretty aggro from him, interesting. Ya I thought the same thing...think we’re gonna get a good thump with this..looks to snow pretty good for the afternoon inland, then a lot of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 4 minutes ago, PWMan said: lol - give me a break. Those types of maps drive me nuts because they imply a level of precision that just isn’t there. lol, That wont be the last change either, Looks like a blue can of paint got spilled, Mostly elevation driven i believe but that's getting to fine on detail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I am surprised Gray doesn't have the South part of Grafton County (Plymouth area) NH is a WSW. The 850 line doesn't even get to us. I really expect more than 6-8". Even it is 6-8" and then sleet wouldn't that still verify as a WSW? Guess it really doesn't matter to the public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 There’s gonna be a lot of south of 90 folks shocked when the sleet goes to extended zr. Can see the posts already lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s gonna be a lot of south of 90 folks shocked when the sleet goes to extended zr. Can see the posts already lol Realistically, how much ZR do you expect at your house? Make sure you take pics. I bet you get under 0.1” accretion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 27/6Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 41 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Realistically, how much ZR do you expect at your house? Make sure you take pics. I bet you get under 0.1” accretion Just let him keep fantasizing about the ice penguin magically waddling around his yard. He needs it ever since he stop believing in Santa when he turned 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 RPM has been ramping up all day. Earlier it looked like the NAM but now it's 8" north of pike. Even has it tickling BDL. Still think that's too optimistic but it's possible the NAM might be a little too pessimistic with 3-4". Im not seeing great cross hair structure on the soundings though like 12/16/07...which is what you look for both to maximize rates and also maximize dynamic opposition to the warm layer...tons of well formed dendrites melting into a marginal warm layer latently cools it faster than putrid flakes. Storms like 12/16/07 produced 2-3" per hour rates to help achieve the positive bust. So I'll stick to the advisory amounts for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 15 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Realistically, how much ZR do you expect at your house? Make sure you take pics. I bet you get under 0.1” accretion No more than .25, but our posters in SW CT but inland are thinking an hour of zrdz lol. They’ll likely have highest amounts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s gonna be a lot of south of 90 folks shocked when the sleet goes to extended zr. Can see the posts already lol Welcome zr to cap the snow..... fuk sleet for plowing purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 start time for Hartford Springfield really Noon or after? Box AFD says mid to late morning....this has huge implications for some folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Should at least be a pretty classic case (textbook worthy) of Cold Air Damming. Interesting event in this regard, if not much else... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: There’s gonna be a lot of south of 90 folks shocked when the sleet goes to extended zr. Can see the posts already lol Ryan disagrees with you. And like he pointed out Friday when you said 50’s weren’t happening, Ryan > Kevin when it comes to Meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Man it’s so cold tomorrow evening from 900 and below. So cold that mesos have low level CAPE at Logan. I don’t expect it to be super adiabatic, so my guess is the model temps of 32-34 right at the beaches is more like 31-32 for a time. Usually when it’s near saturated lapse rates are less. That means srfc temps need to be cooler. It’s also why I’m not sure I agree with the cstl gradient look unless the Logan observer has Mets shook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Welp ...sufficed it is to say ... the models are either going to do shockingly well in the face of a slab of concrete below 900 mbs ...or, they are going to do typically poorly. I think the world's on crack if they think an actual high pressure N of Maine yields the BL at Bedford Mass ...like, ever... straight rain ...that's what I'm seeing on evening news. It'll be interesting - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Welp ...sufficed it is to say ... the models are either going to do shockingly well in the face of a slab of concrete below 900 mbs ...or, they are going to do typically poorly. I think the world's on crack if they think an actual high pressure N of Maine yields the BL at Bedford Mass ...like, ever... straight rain ...that's what I'm seeing on evening news. It'll be interesting - BOX has rain in all of SNE except highest terrain of Berks by tomorrow night in their AFD e being overcome. As warmer air expands we`ll change over to rain. The transition line moves north and west until by early Wednesday morning the all except for the high terrain of the Berkshires will be purely rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 18z Euro bumped qpf up here another .10", Looks like 1.4"-1.5"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Well at least this has gotten more juicy as we’ve closed in..it’s usually the opposite! That’s a nice change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 WRF ARW is likely the best depiction for BL temps imo. It doesn’t get anyone west/north of line from I-395 in CT to I-495 in MA above freezing throughout... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, wxeyeNH said: I am surprised Gray doesn't have the South part of Grafton County (Plymouth area) NH is a WSW. The 850 line doesn't even get to us. I really expect more than 6-8". Even it is 6-8" and then sleet wouldn't that still verify as a WSW? Guess it really doesn't matter to the public. Haddad agrees.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Yeah, We don't start here until 0z tomorrow night.I'm still going with 5-6". Maybe less now with sleet. Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 14 minutes ago, bobbutts said: Haddad agrees.. Haddad just has a bigger range. I've been saying 6-10" for days, but if I had a gun to the head to pick a 2" range I'd go with the GYX 6-8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 1 hour ago, WinterWolf said: Ryan disagrees with you. And like he pointed out Friday when you said 50’s weren’t happening, Ryan > Kevin when it comes to Meteorology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: I look forward to Pickles micro-analysis of the short term mesos tonight to find which one gives us the least desired outcome. I’ll wait till a.m lol i like nam mid level profiles in SWFE and nammy is good to go in this event 24 hrs out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 Looking at the Northeast as a whole the Central part of NH sticks out of the WSW area with a watch only. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alex Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 The DP certainly has a long way to go. Currently -19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 3 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Looking at the Northeast as a whole the Central part of NH sticks out of the WSW area with a watch only. We will see. That’s strange looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 TWC has 8-12 inches for Boston and 3-5 inches for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 12, 2019 Author Share Posted February 12, 2019 21/16 at TAN MVY leading the charge with 19/10 right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 12, 2019 Share Posted February 12, 2019 44 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Looking at the Northeast as a whole the Central part of NH sticks out of the WSW area with a watch only. We will see. You missed our discussion earlier on it... I was very surprised, lol. I might have had a mini-rant on how you've got a frozen 1"+ QPF event coming and can't decide whether to go with a warning. If you issue an Advisory it gives the public the wrong idea, as those get issued for 30-minutes of freezing drizzle before rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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