Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper

[dendrite]

22 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Too bad you gave the Closer the wrong info...this is a Sleet fest, not much ZR with this one. 

I could see Kevin being more zr than ip.

[BombsAway1288]

1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd be very surprised if BOS hadn't flipped by 03z...if they hold out until 03z, they'll get 8"+. They can prob score 4-5" if they last until 00z which is roughly when I'd put the changeover time at. 

I will be absolutely pleasantly shocked by 8” here. Don’t think it will happen but I will try my best to give a pprox amounts here as it happens. Hard to do officially being surrounded by triple deckers but there are some good spots. 

Either way, whatever the Logan observer decides to show will be interesting (and wrong most likely).

[WinterWolf]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I could see Kevin being more zr than ip.

ehh.....????  The bottom line is this really isn't a Freezing rain threat for most in CT.  Sleet for sure.

[ORH_wxman]

35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

I would take the under on that for BOS

Well so would I...that's why I said I'd up the ante IF we got another tick colder. 

[BombsAway1288]

15 minutes ago, BrianW said:

Who does the observations at the airports? The FAA? Are they actually paid to do it like it's in their job description? Or are they just sort of doing a favor for the NWS?

I’m pretty sure it’s done by some guy from Winthrop and actually in Winthrop from what I’ve been told in the past. He might be doing it right on the eastern beach for all we know so maybe that’s why some of these totals have been so low 

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I could see Kevin being more zr than ip.

Let’s the lovebirds be . They love tag teaming 

[dendrite]

6 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

ehh.....????  The bottom line is this really isn't a Freezing rain threat for most in CT.  Sleet for sure.

We'll see. Whoever can stay north of the sfc reflection and below 32F could get a period of -ZR. I don't think it'd be anything major, but I wouldn't rule it out. Kevin has 300' less to refreeze drops back into pellets too.

[ORH_wxman]

Kevin will def get ZR. But I'd sell on any siggy ice (say a quarter inch or better). He'll get sandblasted during the lion's share of the heaviest QPF is my guess. 

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Let’s the lovebirds be . They love tag teaming 

lol...I'm not proclaiming ice storm. I just think you could have a period of -ZR/-ZL and not just be a brief flip to ZL before precip shutting off. The brunt of the precip should be SN/PL though. So I guess it's semantics. Maybe you'll rot at 32.4F and -DZ instead.

[CT Rain]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kevin will def get ZR. But I'd sell on any siggy ice (say a quarter inch or better). He'll get sandblasted during the lion's share of the heaviest QPF is my guess. 

Yeah I think most of CT is going to get a pelting. Some glaze but nothing terrible.

[HoarfrostHubb]

I would assume decent sleet well into N MA / S NH...

[DavisStraight]

Will, what are your thought on Worcester tomorrow afternoon?

[HoarfrostHubb]

Some districts already announcing early releases for Tuesday.  Prob a good idea in rural areas

[weathafella]

So now 18z NAM keeps BOS mid levels at bay until around 3z...arguably maybe an hour later.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, dryslot said:

Nothing has changed in my thinking to come off that range, Euro has been steady showing that for several runs now and the Meso's are catching up.

Yea, I have north of MHT as 8-12".

[CoastalWx]

Looks similar to 12z to me. Peltfest.

[40/70 Benchmark]

58 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Kevin will def get ZR. But I'd sell on any siggy ice (say a quarter inch or better). He'll get sandblasted during the lion's share of the heaviest QPF is my guess. 

Yea, glaze but not a huge deal.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks similar to 12z to me. Peltfest.

I just finally ran a skew-yup-0z-maybe could make it to 1z.  Good thump though 

[powderfreak]

I'm shocked that GYX went only with a Winter Storm Warning for their mountain zones and kept the Watch up for elsewhere.

I mean, regardless of p-type, the magnitude of frozen QPF should warrant a Winter Storm Warning. 

Concord to Lewiston there isn't enough confidence to go with a winter storm warning?!  No way, 1-1.3" QPF as frozen or freezing...

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm shocked that GYX went only with a Winter Storm Warning for their mountain zones and kept the Watch up for elsewhere.

I mean, regardless of p-type, the magnitude of frozen QPF should warrant a Winter Storm Warning. 

Concord to Lewiston there isn't enough confidence to go with a winter storm warning?!  No way, 1-1.3" QPF as frozen or freezing...

Not sure who's on the short term desk, But i was scratching my head on that one, I thought it was a slam dunk, They have to be giving that warm layer some weight.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm shocked that GYX went only with a Winter Storm Warning for their mountain zones and kept the Watch up for elsewhere.

I mean, regardless of p-type, the magnitude of frozen QPF should warrant a Winter Storm Warning. 

Concord to Lewiston there isn't enough confidence to go with a winter storm warning?!  No way, 1-1.3" QPF as frozen or freezing...

Concord to Lewiston...warm tongue 

[powderfreak]

Just now, dryslot said:

Not sure who's on the short term desk, But i was scratching my head on that one, I thought it was a slam dunk, They have to be giving that warm layer some weight.

Even with the warm layer... I still remember one of these events a couple years ago here where it was unknown what the p-type would be except that it wouldn't be plain rain and the models had like 1-1.5" QPF.  BTV just said something like, "regardless of the actual precipitation type, the sheer quantity of frozen or freezing precipitation that will fall and the impact that will have on travel warrants a Winter Storm Warning"... basically saying if it's 3 inches of snow, 3 inches of sleet and 0.25" of freezing rain, none of that meets warning criteria but the public doesn't give a shit.  It's a whole mess of frozen precipitation and shoveling or plowing or driving in it will be much higher impact than any other Advisory level event.

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm shocked that GYX went only with a Winter Storm Warning for their mountain zones and kept the Watch up for elsewhere.

I mean, regardless of p-type, the magnitude of frozen QPF should warrant a Winter Storm Warning. 

Concord to Lewiston there isn't enough confidence to go with a winter storm warning?!  No way, 1-1.3" QPF as frozen or freezing...

I’m leaning 6-8” here

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Even with the warm layer... I still remember one of these events a couple years ago here where it was unknown what the p-type would be except that it wouldn't be plain rain and the models had like 1-1.5" QPF.  BTV just said something like, "regardless of the actual precipitation type, the sheer quantity of frozen or freezing precipitation that will fall and the impact that will have on travel warrants a Winter Storm Warning"... basically saying if it's 3 inches of snow, 3 inches of sleet and 0.25" of freezing rain, none of that meets warning criteria but the public doesn't give a shit.  It's a whole mess of frozen precipitation and shoveling or plowing or driving in it will be much higher impact than any other Advisory level event.

In the zone product for here, They have 3-7" overnight with 2-4" on weds.

[powderfreak]

Just now, dryslot said:

In the zone product for here, They have 3-7" overnight with 2-4" on weds.

Even if worried about warmth aloft, it's almost like part of a winter storm criteria could just be total QPF falling at a sub-32F temperature instead of worrying if it's going  to fall an inch shy of snowfall criteria because of mixed precip.  Like hey we know we will get over 1" of liquid equivalent falling at temps below freezing, that's good enough to hoist, lol.  The weight of that removal and the impact is much greater than say hitting easy warning criteria in fluffy snow.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Even with the warm layer... I still remember one of these events a couple years ago here where it was unknown what the p-type would be except that it wouldn't be plain rain and the models had like 1-1.5" QPF.  BTV just said something like, "regardless of the actual precipitation type, the sheer quantity of frozen or freezing precipitation that will fall and the impact that will have on travel warrants a Winter Storm Warning"... basically saying if it's 3 inches of snow, 3 inches of sleet and 0.25" of freezing rain, none of that meets warning criteria but the public doesn't give a shit.  It's a whole mess of frozen precipitation and shoveling or plowing or driving in it will be much higher impact than any other Advisory level event.

I mean, I guess you could make an argument of changing the criteria to liquid equivalent of frozen precip. 6” of 10:1 with 2” of sleet is more impactful than 12” of 20:1. That’s a difference of like 1.20” QPF versus 0.60”.

[dryslot]

Just now, powderfreak said:

Even if worried about warmth aloft, it's almost like part of a winter storm criteria could just be total QPF falling at a sub-32F temperature instead of worrying if it's going  to fall an inch shy of snowfall criteria because of mixed precip.  Like hey we know we will get over 1" of liquid equivalent falling at temps below freezing, that's good enough to hoist, lol.

They probably want to look at the 0z runs then will decide on the next AFD early tomorrow morning, There is still time left as we are not inside 24 hrs yet here is my assumption.

[PWMan]

16 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Not sure who's on the short term desk, But i was scratching my head on that one, I thought it was a slam dunk, They have to be giving that warm layer some weight.

The new AFD talks about warmer upper levels and colder low levels, resulting in substantial sleet. Either way I'm also surprised they'd leave the non-mountain zones in a watch at this point, as the impact will be substantial whether it's snow or sleet -- and their probablistic winter product shows > 60% likelihood of 6+ inches in Portland and other southern/coastal areas with the forecast onset about 24 hours away.

[dryslot]

6 minutes ago, PWMan said:

The new AFD talks about warmer upper levels and colder low levels, resulting in substantial sleet. Either way I'm also surprised they'd leave the non-mountain zones in a watch at this point, as the impact will be substantial whether it's snow or sleet -- and their probablistic winter product shows > 60% likelihood of 6+ inches in Portland and other eastern areas with the forecast onset about 24 hours away.

I just looked and its Curtis that is on the short term, I have found him to be on the conservative side, Here is his discussion, Looks like he is humping the Nam, I think he gets cute with the maps too if i remember right.

By early Wednesday morning the warm air begins to infiltrate
aloft and may turn much of the region over to sleet with some
freezing rain possible along the coast. Here is where we`ve seen
the largest change in the guidance over the past 12 hours with
warm air continuing to push further northwards keeping the
threat of sleet in the forecast all the way through the White
Mountains of New Hampshire. The NAM was the warmest option
pushing temps of up to +8C into our region along the NH coast.
Feel this is a bit too warm and have gone a bit colder while
still allowing for substantial sleet through southern New
Hampshire and coastal Maine. An additional consideration is the
surface temperatures and the depth of the cold air. Here the
opposite trend applies with the existing cold high pressure
likely to hold colder air at the surface longer than most of the
global models suggest. The combination of warmer air aloft and
deeper colder air at the surface makes sleet the main concern
vs freezing rain. Due to the uncertainty in the precip types and
thus the amounts have opted to leave the southern portion of
New Hampshire and Maine in a Winter Storm Watch.

Further north, through the mountains of western Maine and north
of the notches in New Hampshire the warm air is unlikely to
infiltrate keeping precipitation type all snow and resulting in
higher snow ratios. For this reason snow totals are higher and
confidence in warning criteria is also correspondingly greater
and thus a Winter Storm Warning has been issued.

[powderfreak]

Just now, dryslot said:

They probably want to look at the 0z runs then will decide on the next AFD early tomorrow morning, There is still time left as we are not inside 24 hrs yet here is my assumption.

True, I forget you guys are probably a few hours later arrival over there. 

I think my shocked expression was more just from even considering an Advisory for like a 1.25" frozen QPF event, when Advisories also get issued for trace amounts of freezing drizzle. 

However, I guess you would want to have the p-type be  as nailed down as possible when you issue the actual warning... so the text in the warning can seem higher confidence.  I guess that's it.  But by splitting the CWA it gives the illusion that one part may not be as impacted.