Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper

[kdxken]

11 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The 3km is an absolute torch aloft.

Lots of sleet and gets it almost up here.

This^ You just know it . 

[kdxken]

2 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Plus Brian, you don't have to say creepy basement, my basement is actually quite high maintenance, it has a lot of expensive electronics in it, and my pet fish life down here too.

 Sometimes I wonder if you're not just yanking people's chains . 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

5 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Plus Brian, you don't have to say creepy basement, my basement is actually quite high maintenance, it has a lot of expensive electronics in it, and my pet fish life down here too.

Imagine how creepy his basement is. Dark and moldy with heeps of rotten eggs and chicken bones. 

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Plus Brian, you don't have to say creepy basement, my basement is actually quite high maintenance, it has a lot of expensive electronics in it, and my pet fish life down here too.

He has to be making frequent trips to Mass now. Grandaddy Purple 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

This system will have totals similar to 1-19 except maybe a little better snow totals for the CT crew.

[powderfreak]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

18z was worse, So its an improvement.

True, not a lot but definitely ticked south with the mixing.  It's very RGEM-like.  We'll see if the mesos are onto something or not.  

I'm with dendrite though, sometimes it's hard to completely discount the warmth aloft pushing north.  SFC temps will be locked cold, but that 700-800mb warmth can flow north pretty fast.  Always hard to know in these events.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, powderfreak said:

True, not a lot but definitely ticked south with the mixing.  It's very RGEM-like.  We'll see if the mesos are onto something or not.  

I'm with dendrite though, sometimes it's hard to completely discount the warmth aloft pushing north.  SFC temps will be locked cold, but that 700-800mb warmth can flow north pretty fast.  Always hard to know in these events.

Those high layer warm tongues don’t give a crap about HP. Without a developing secondary that will be tough to slow. Maybe the NAM is too aggressive with that, but I’ve seen the gfs do the opposite too. Euro seems like something in the middle.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Those high layer warm tongues don’t give a crap about HP. Without a developing secondary that will be tough to slow. Maybe the NAM is too aggressive with that, but I’ve seen the gfs do the opposite too. Euro seems like something in the middle.

I mean the 00z RGEM isn't backing down with the mid-level warmth either.  We can say what we want about the model but at 00z Wednesday it's sleeting up to SLK-RUT-CON with very little snow south/west of that.  

The low levels are frigid though with SFC temps below freezing straight to the coastline (even south coast of CT) while it's sleeting up into NNE.  It's like a half hour of snow then sleet in a lot of places and if it went past 48 hours I'm probably sleeting after only 3-6".

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I mean the RGEM isn't backing down with the mid-level warmth either.  We can say what we want about the model but at 00z Wednesday it's sleeting up to SLK-RUT-CON with very little snow south/west of that.  

The low levels are frigid though with SFC temps below freezing straight to the coastline (even south coast of CT) while it's sleeting up into NNE.  It's like a half hour of snow then sleet in a lot of places and if it went past 48 hours I'm probably sleeting after only 3-6".

C'mon now, You're looking at the the extended version of that model, lol, Lets look again when it gets inside 36 hrs, Even then, I have doub'ts, Its been pretty useless this winter, And i have followed it.

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I mean the 00z RGEM isn't backing down with the mid-level warmth either.  We can say what we want about the model but at 00z Wednesday it's sleeting up to SLK-RUT-CON with very little snow south/west of that.  

The low levels are frigid though with SFC temps below freezing straight to the coastline (even south coast of CT) while it's sleeting up into NNE.  It's like a half hour of snow then sleet in a lot of places and if it went past 48 hours I'm probably sleeting after only 3-6".

Yeah defintely gives me pause. Gfs seemed a tad warmer too.

[weathafella]

Gfs still with a strong thump.   MET has an 8 for BOS.  All I want is a strong front ender and that remains viable for MBY.

[powderfreak]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

C'mon now, You're looking at the the extended version of that model, lol, Lets look again when it gets inside 36 hrs, Even then, I have doub'ts, Its been pretty useless this winter, And i have followed it.

No im looking at it out to its 48 hour max. It's done ok in a few events up this way.  Was real good in the January 19-20 event here.

I'm not saying it's right but it's not backing down.  The NAM family should give some pause too.  Those models do sniff out mid-level warmth, this isn't like large synoptic features.  They are very cold in the low levels too, so it's not like they are warming the column up...only the 700-750mb layer.

[powderfreak]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah defintely gives me pause. Gfs seemed a tad warmer too.

The GFS is warmer in the low levels while the NAM/RGEM are warmer in the mid-levels, but colder at the SFC.  

A blend seems like a good idea.  I guess my pause is just from SWFE climo where the mid level warm has a tendency to advance quicker than shown at times.  The surface will be frigid.

[HIPPYVALLEY]

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

No im looking at it out to its 48 hour max. It's done ok in a few events up this way.  Was real good in the January 19-20 event here.

I'm not saying it's right but it's not backing down.  The NAM family should give some pause too.  Those models do sniff out mid-level warmth, this isn't like large synoptic features.  They are very cold in the low levels too, so it's not like they are warming the column up...only the 700-750mb layer.

RGEM and NAM combo rocketing the warm mid-levels in is certainly pause for concern but I would still hold out for 0z/12z Euro, HRRR and various WRF models to confirm the trend tomorrow.

 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

NAM and Reggie are a lot of sleet from here up through Dendrite, so no thanks, my back and snow blower are not interested.

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The GFS is warmer in the low levels while the NAM/RGEM are warmer in the mid-levels, but colder at the SFC.  

A blend seems like a good idea.  I guess my pause is just from SWFE climo where the mid level warm has a tendency to advance quicker than shown at times.  The surface will be frigid.

Usually down here is all about the thump and forcing from the massive 850-700 WF that moves in. It will be cold for awhile as it’s cold enough to snow. Then we time the warm Tongue and see how much surface cold is left. Usually this area does ok since I have some latitude relatively speaking. I still think 4-6 works but I feel more comfortable with 4-5 as of now. Anyways looks solid up your way even if you taint. 

[OceanStWx]

42 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Those high layer warm tongues don’t give a crap about HP. Without a developing secondary that will be tough to slow. Maybe the NAM is too aggressive with that, but I’ve seen the gfs do the opposite too. Euro seems like something in the middle.

Yeah, I'm going to toss some of what the GFS is selling. It drops at least another 0.25" QPF after the dry slot. That's not going to happen. So we're already lopping 2-4" off the totals.

[OceanStWx]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Usually down here is all about the thump and forcing from the massive 850-700 WF that moves in. It will be cold for awhile as it’s cold enough to snow. Then we time the warm Tongue and see how much surface cold is left. Usually this area does ok since I have some latitude relatively speaking. I still think 4-6 works but I feel more comfortable with 4-5 as of now. Anyways looks solid up your way even if you taint. 

I look at it a lot of times from an omega perspective. Most people are looking at a 6 to 9 hour window tops for strong lift. It's unlikely you'll do an inch an hour for 6-9 hours, so there's your upper bounds. 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Usually down here is all about the thump and forcing from the massive 850-700 WF that moves in. It will be cold for awhile as it’s cold enough to snow. Then we time the warm Tongue and see how much surface cold is left. Usually this area does ok since I have some latitude relatively speaking. I still think 4-6 works but I feel more comfortable with 4-5 as of now. Anyways looks solid up your way even if you taint. 

Yeah most of these runs keep eastern areas in the deepest cold longer, especially NE MA near Ray.  

I'm never afraid of some sleet mixed in with the snow, might actually help to add some weightier stuff to this icepack.  

Lol the 00z GGEM taints into Canada with half inch QPF as sleet here, but that track isn't happening from like ALB to Sunday River.

[OceanStWx]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Yeah most of these runs keep eastern areas in the deepest cold longer, especially NE MA near Ray.  

I'm never afraid of some sleet mixed in with the snow, might actually help to add some weightier stuff to this icepack.  

Lol the 00z GGEM taints into Canada with half inch QPF as sleet here, but that track isn't happening from like ALB to Sunday River.

Euro is actually pretty warm at 700 mb too. That would bring mix pretty far north between 06-09z.

[powderfreak]

5 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Euro is actually pretty warm at 700 mb too. That would bring mix pretty far north between 06-09z.

Synoptically it makes sense.  The mid-levels are way west, like over Michigan when the best lift moves into our area...just a straight shot of strong SSW winds aloft and nothing to stop warmth from plowing north.  Hell the H7 low goes decently north of Toronto eventually.

[40/70 Benchmark]

17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Usually down here is all about the thump and forcing from the massive 850-700 WF that moves in. It will be cold for awhile as it’s cold enough to snow. Then we time the warm Tongue and see how much surface cold is left. Usually this area does ok since I have some latitude relatively speaking. I still think 4-6 works but I feel more comfortable with 4-5 as of now. Anyways looks solid up your way even if you taint. 

Yea, gun to head, 4" for you...but could see 5".

[ORH_wxman]

I've been on the 4-6 train here for about 2 days now. 

Possible we could get 7-8 if we went insane thump for a while...but you need like 2" per hour for that and I don't see it on this setup. We'd need the whole midlevel structure of the storm about 100-200 miles east for that I think...more like 12/16/07. GFS has flirted at times with the heavier scenario but not gonna bite unless we see a collective trend toward that tomorrow.

It could be 3" too if the push is weak for the first 2-4 hours. 

But regardless, def gonna be a wintry storm. Sfc ain't going above freezing over interior until around FROPA. 

[Organizing Low]

3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

I've been on the 4-6 train here for about 2 days now. 

Possible we could get 7-8 if we went insane thump for a while...but you need like 2" per hour for that and I don't see it on this setup. We'd need the whole midlevel structure of the storm about 100-200 miles east for that I think...more like 12/16/07. GFS has flirted at times with the heavier scenario but not gonna bite unless we see a collective trend toward that tomorrow.

It could be 3" too if the push is weak for the first 2-4 hours. 

But regardless, def gonna be a wintry storm. Sfc ain't going above freezing over interior until around FROPA. 

and there you have it

i feel in a decent position here, though on the cusp of sleet here IMO. all places SE of here including VT, would not be very confident. would like to see some better trends for all folks tomorrow.

should be another great storm for ottawa where the banks are piling high this year.

[w1pf]

PnC for MBY has cancelled the storm

 

 

[dendrite]

Here come the torchy runs at 6z. NAM and GFS get the 0C 850 up to the Lakes Region. I’ll probably end up with 6” of snow and an inch of sleet.

[moneypitmike]

10 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Here come the torchy runs at 6z. NAM and GFS get the 0C 850 up to the Lakes Region. I’ll probably end up with 6” of snow and an inch of sleet.

Dream crusher ip-fest for SNE.  BOX already has thrown the caution flags of watch downgrades.  I anticipate that will be the case at least for zones below Rt2.

Meanwhile, GYX going long and deep.

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Dream crusher ip-fest for SNE.  BOX already has thrown the caution flags of watch downgrades.  I anticipate that will be the case at least for zones below Rt2.

Meanwhile, GYX going long and deep.

3k nam is more sleet than snow for interior sne. 

Has CON pinging by 3z too.

[Damage In Tolland]

Well.. another zr storm after a few inches of snow for CT. Amazing how going with persistence and repetitiveness this winter has been the way to go 

[OceanStWx]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

3k nam is more sleet than snow for interior sne. 

Has CON pinging by 3z too.

Big caution flags.