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Winter Re-Awakening - February 12-14th Redeveloper


Baroclinic Zone

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That GFS looks like 4 or 5" of snow then warning ice for some band down in CT to NW RI to me.

Just correcting for known model bias/llv resolution/handling with cold air and ageo wind is not likely allowing the GFS's cyclonic intrusion into boundary layer through RI that much.  Probably end up "scalping" as we call it.. to a considerable distance NW of that zr axis. 

That's just the look of this one run.

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45 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Why is that bad?

seriously...this is a good op for delving deeper into the murky psychology of 'why this crap matters' so much ...

If it snows 4 or 5" ...then cuts to sleet and freezing rain, that's fine... Or should be - I'm starting to really get a loss to figure out what it is people are after.  I think it's a conditioning issue...

IF we had endured a steady diet of snowy events... this would be a pleasant diversion?  But, since we have not experienced, ...pretty much any exciting winter of modeling histrionics combined with fruitfully snowing outputs... this is some kind of intolerable asshole event.  :)  ..Funny watching en mass, sheep be herded along by the vicissitudes of modeling AI -

seems like it... 

Reality check ...for me anyway.  If it snows 4 or 5" and then we get advisory level icing over top, that's fascinating phenomenon period. 

People are just looking for a nice, significant snowfall, minus the freezing rain, sleet, or rain.  I am not sure why that is so hard to figure out.  It's been part of what has driven people on this board for years.  Some people want to see an all snow event.  

It may not be what people will get, but it's what some (at this point SNE people) are looking to have weatherwise in the winter.  This is nothing new, and nothing to shame people about. 

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58 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Why is that bad?

seriously...this is a good op for delving deeper into the murky psychology of 'why this crap matters' so much ...

If it snows 4 or 5" ...then cuts to sleet and freezing rain, that's fine... Or should be - I'm starting to really get a loss to figure out what it is people are after.  I think it's a conditioning issue...

IF we had endured a steady diet of snowy events... this would be a pleasant diversion?  But, since we have not experienced, ...pretty much any exciting winter of modeling histrionics combined with fruitfully snowing outputs... this is some kind of intolerable asshole event.  :)  ..Funny watching en mass, sheep be herded along by the vicissitudes of modeling AI -

seems like it... 

Reality check ...for me anyway.  If it snows 4 or 5" and then we get advisory level icing over top, that's fascinating phenomenon period. 

Where did I say it was bad? Just stating the reality of the season thus far.

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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha!  ...yeah, preachin' to the quire.

Frankly, I tend to start losing my grip on winter enthusiasm as I approach the ides of February anyway...  And, that is particularly going to be true in bent over, viciously unrelenting kosmik dildo winters like this one - it's going to average right up there in the bottom list :wacko2: if it goes on to end this way.  Starting to get easier, if perhaps Stockholm Syndrome ... to foresee this just blithely attenuating out to tepid days interrupted by BD face smacks.

Oy. 

I dunno...  In all seriousness, there are too many big Marches in the annuls... I mean, this is not a prediction, but the fact of the matter is...we don't know - we don't know if this could be one of those Marches.... Let alone, we still got 20 days of this month... 

Ah, I get it - folks that vest in this emotionally have frustrations (even anger) and relying upon this winter? It's really like the horrible crush you had on the biggest ..uh, enter adjective here ... in high school.  I mean, she gets to keep giving you cause to not let go, ...and you couldn't because you were compelled... 

Lo......literacy Plato.

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As many have alluded to, this pattern is not at all conducive for a snowy S New England winter. Don`t expect coastal maturing lows that deliver heavy snows. Open-wave, fast moving disturbances. More than likely persistent front-end thumps that, depending on the preceding environment, whether a stout dip of Arctic air, will deliver mostly an advisory winter weather event, whether snow or a wintry mix, with the risk of warning level snows.

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23 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Where did I say it was bad? Just stating the reality of the season thus far.

C'mon dude... one don't post " Thump, cut, cold, repeat. " around this particular group unless you're dancing around some sort of negative vibe.

Whatever...

 

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7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

C'mon dude... one don't post " Thump, cut, cold, repeat. " around this particular group unless you're dancing around some sort of negative vibe.

Whatever...

 

You are really on a psychology bent these days.

Yes, there are snow lovers out there.  Just like sports fans get pissed when their team loses.   

If you like the Patriots and they lose a sh*tty game people get upset.  If the Red Sox lose to the Yankees, I get pissed.  

Yes there are things people have no control over personally but they root for a given outcome.  This isn't that hard to grasp but you keep trying to undermine anyone that derives some pleasure from snow.

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

You are really on a psychology bent these days.

Yes, there are snow lovers out there.  Just like sports fans get pissed when their team loses.   

If you like the Patriots and they lose a sh*tty game people get upset.  If the Red Sox lose to the Yankees, I get pissed.  

Yes there are things people have no control over personally but they root for a given outcome.  This isn't that hard to grasp but you keep trying to undermine anyone that derives some pleasure from snow.

 

Mmm...  it's abnormal to obsess in any realm - regardless of sport or weather.  Not sure what you're after ...other than evasion of having to face the demon of it, which is what's really going on.

But, you can't reach people or get them to be genuine about that, on -line... so yeah, fool's errand. 

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