powderfreak Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 5:31 PM, qg_omega said: I do not think Gore or Whiteface mix with sleet for any real period of time. Expand Ok we may be on the same page. "Any real period of time"... I agree in that it won't affect accums much but there could be pockets of pellets or really shitty bouncing granular flakes. The line I gave is where I'm thinking pure snow with real flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Felt good to bitch this morning. Try to quit, but it sucks you back in....like a wheelchair bound 60yr old to Pickles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 5:38 PM, ORH_wxman said: As long as we aren't going by the disastrous Logan observer, id forecast 3-6" for BOS right now. They are in an a pretty decent spot latitude and longitude wise. If we get one more tick colder at 00z tonight I'd up the ante to 4-8". When the bent back WF in the midlevels is oriented from NW to SE line, that is usually a good setup for BOS and NE MA. That's like a 3/19/13 setup or 12/16/07. Where ALB-SYR is pinging before Scooter does. Expand Yea..I think 5" in Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 5:39 PM, CoastalWx said: I have that as my guess with more confidence 4-5. Expand Yeah they all seem to be gung ho to bring in the sleet by 7pm. The maps all indicate no change until 10 or after so they clearly don't believe what they are putting on the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 5:54 PM, 8611Blizz said: Yeah they all seem to be gung ho to bring in the sleet by 7pm. The maps all indicate no change until 10 or after so they clearly don't believe what they are putting on the air. Expand I'd be very surprised if BOS hadn't flipped by 03z...if they hold out until 03z, they'll get 8"+. They can prob score 4-5" if they last until 00z which is roughly when I'd put the changeover time at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 5:56 PM, ORH_wxman said: I'd be very surprised if BOS hadn't flipped by 03z...if they hold out until 03z, they'll get 8"+. They can prob score 5" if they last until 00z which is roughly when I'd put the changeover time at. Expand Yeah I know I seem to be obsessing over this but when what they say doesn't match what is on screen it leads to confusion for the general public. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Are we thinking about a 1:00pm start time for E MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 5:53 PM, STILL N OF PIKE said: Weak I’ll round rumps that bounce when ..well anyway . Had a great time in room 256 at Spruce peak. Jacuzzi was great had icicle in my hair last nite . Age 40-49 is where I do the most damage Expand Note to self, avoid this room if I ever stay there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Man euro is a thump after 00z. 90 min difference in sleet timing could be like 2”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 5:59 PM, NorEastermass128 said: Are we thinking about a 1:00pm start time for E MA? Expand Down this way. yes. Up in NE MA it may be an hour or 2 later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 There's some wiggle room there on the 3k NAM for BOS. The max profile temp gets above 0C before 00z, but +2C doesn't until 2z. The GFS is quite a bit colder, but I'd lean toward the Nammy. If the NAM is 1C too warm that could mean a couple hours extra of snow vs crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 6:00 PM, CoastalWx said: Man euro is a thump after 00z. 90 min difference in sleet timing could be like 2”. Expand Yeah that is crazy precip rates there. Ray would prob score 8"+ on the euro. But for everyone an hour or two difference could mean 2-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 How much zr for CT on Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 6:03 PM, Damage In Tolland said: How much zr for CT on Euro? Expand It's not that much. You're already getting dryslotted by 06z. Mostly just a snow to absolute scalping. Maybe hours and hours of light glazes afterward but it doesn't add up to that much qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 4:24 PM, Lava Rock said: So only half washed away? Expand Or less, as Jeff noted. Morning AFD from GYX guessed at late week RA similar to what I got on Jan. 24, and that only settled the pack 2-3" despite having 11" of powder (slightly IP-enriched) from 4 days earlier. (CAD not allowing temps out of the 30s was key.) The current pack is so solid (as I learned moving 3-4 tons off the porch roof Saturday) that I'm pretty confident the depth will be significantly greater this weekend than the 26" this morning. AM p/c forecast had 5-9 tomorrow night and 3-5 Wednesday, GYX "expected" for Farmington was 11" this morning, up 1" from yesterday PM. Unless something really changes, I anticipate an 8-12 forecast going into the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 6:06 PM, tamarack said: Or less, as Jeff noted. Morning AFD from GYX guessed at late week RA similar to what I got on Jan. 24, and that only settled the pack 2-3" despite having 11" of powder (slightly IP-enriched) from 4 days earlier. (CAD not allowing temps out of the 30s was key.) The current pack is so solid (as I learned moving 3-4 tons off the porch roof Saturday) that I'm pretty confident the depth will be significantly greater this weekend than the 26" this morning. AM p/c forecast had 5-9 tomorrow night and 3-5 Wednesday, GYX "expected" for Farmington was 11" this morning, up 1" from yesterday PM. Unless something really changes, I anticipate an 8-12 forecast going into the event. Expand Nothing has changed in my thinking to come off that range, Euro has been steady showing that for several runs now and the Meso's are catching up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I have a flight at Logan at 2:20 PM tomorrow. Do we think that's still a go or should I try to move it up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 6:14 PM, highways1 said: I have a flight at Logan at 2:20 PM tomorrow. Do we think that's still a go or should I try to move it up? Expand I would definitely look into moving it up. The weatherwise it may be OK, the airlines will start the canceling stuff before the snow starts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whineminster Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 2:15 PM, ORH_wxman said: If only we could've cancelled the November snowstorms in 2012-2013 and 2014-2015...imagine how much snow we would've gotten that winter Expand Thanksgiving snow and after is fine....but before that it's a bad omen, especially when it was so cold this November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 2-4" here. That's a W this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 6:22 PM, Whineminster said: Thanksgiving snow and after is fine....but before that it's a bad omen, especially when it was so cold this November. Expand We should've cancelled the November 6-7, 2012 snowstorm. Imagine how much more we would've gotten that winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 6:22 PM, Whineminster said: Thanksgiving snow and after is fine....but before that it's a bad omen, especially when it was so cold this November. Expand Novie snow of 2014 came before T-Day. It was about the only overperformer I saw that snow season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 5:38 PM, ORH_wxman said: As long as we aren't going by the disastrous Logan observer, id forecast 3-6" for BOS right now. They are in an a pretty decent spot latitude and longitude wise. If we get one more tick colder at 00z tonight I'd up the ante to 4-8". When the bent back WF in the midlevels is oriented from NW to SE line, that is usually a good setup for BOS and NE MA. That's like a 3/19/13 setup or 12/16/07. Where ALB-SYR is pinging before Scooter does. Expand I would take the under on that for BOS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 It's strange seeing the NAM so much warmer than the Euro/GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 6:05 PM, ORH_wxman said: It's not that much. You're already getting dryslotted by 06z. Mostly just a snow to absolute scalping. Maybe hours and hours of light glazes afterward but it doesn't add up to that much qpf. Expand So power grid phailure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 2:33 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Yes. It will go fairly quickly from sleet to zr. Just like the last several. Will Be a narrow zone of significant zr Expand Too bad you gave the Closer the wrong info...this is a Sleet fest, not much ZR with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
highways1 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 6:21 PM, CoastalWx said: I would definitely look into moving it up. The weatherwise it may be OK, the airlines will start the canceling stuff before the snow starts. Expand Thanks, ironically I'm flying to MSP and they're getting the storm tonight and into tomorrow morning so I'm weighing that. I'd think they're pretty good at clearing snowing there but obviously safety is tops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BrianW Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 5:38 PM, ORH_wxman said: As long as we aren't going by the disastrous Logan observer, id forecast 3-6" for BOS right now. They are in an a pretty decent spot latitude and longitude wise. If we get one more tick colder at 00z tonight I'd up the ante to 4-8". When the bent back WF in the midlevels is oriented from NW to SE line, that is usually a good setup for BOS and NE MA. That's like a 3/19/13 setup or 12/16/07. Where ALB-SYR is pinging before Scooter does. Expand Who does the observations at the airports? The FAA? Are they actually paid to do it like it's in their job description? Or are they just sort of doing a favor for the NWS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sugarloaf1989 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 6:42 PM, WinterWolf said: Too bad you gave the Closer the wrong info...this is a Sleet fest, not much ZR with this one. Expand Nope, it's destructive, just like the 2/7 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 On 2/11/2019 at 5:46 PM, CoastalWx said: Felt good to bitch this morning. Try to quit, but it sucks you back in....like a wheelchair bound 60yr old to Pickles. Expand Lmao nice Euro run. So so glad Kevin cancelled winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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