NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 What’s the timing on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Your fortunes may turn in the late-week disaster. Dont count that out yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Do you mean north? I'd see 6" as far more likely than 7or more. No CNE NNE should be 8 to 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I’m noticing a trend across guidance for the primary to close off later at H5. To me that means the chance is increasing over time for an earlier pop of the coastal low. I also anticipate the low level CAD due to that surface high strength/position will be more significant than modeled—even all the way down to the Mid Atlantic at 48 hrs. Expecting to see cold air damning —upper 20’s down to central Virginia wouldn’t surprise me at 12z Tuesday... You have the same thought process as me 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Burbank going 1-3” for the coast. 3-6” inland. 6+ up by Manchester. Just enough to be a pain in the azz for two commutes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 14 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Thanks--my concern was that the primary looks to continue to deepen suggesting a later redevelopment. Whatever it takes! In terms of mid level temps it’s a catch-22 of sorts bc we’re in between a true SWFE and a Miller B. Cutting off early also causes more problems at the surface bc the wind becomes more easterly...The best outcome for us is a dynamic Miller B where the primary doesn’t cut-off and instead the coastal surface reflection can tap the best UL dynamics, faster/earlier...The more progressive the primary, the better. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: In terms of mid level temps it’s a catch-22 of sorts bc we’re in between a true SWFE and a Miller B. Cutting off early also causes more problems at the surface bc the wind becomes more easterly...The best outcome for us is a dynamic Miller B where the primary doesn’t cut-off and instead the coastal surface reflection can tap the best UL dynamics, faster/earlier...The more progressive the primary, the better. Gotcha--thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 21 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Can't lose this season apparently.... Looks like the EURO/GGEM/GFS all have over 1" QPF as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You guys are off the rails . Solid 6 to 10 Rt 2 south. I’d go all in on the under for 6-10” for S CT/ RI/ SE MA/ CC and Islands. 6” delineation line will be I90 or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I’d go all in on the under for 6-10” for S CT/ RI/ SE MA/ CC and Islands. 6” delineation line will be I90 or so. I'd move that line north. There's a lot of ip with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 21 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Burbank going 1-3” for the coast. 3-6” inland. 6+ up by Manchester. Just enough to be a pain in the azz for two commutes. Tuesday evening commute has disaster written all over it. Tough call for schools Tuesday, the heavy snow will be moving in for dismissal time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 hour ago, OceanStWx said: Lot of rains to Maine. You should use rains to Maine’s in one of your AFD’s this week 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 13 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: I’d go all in on the under for 6-10” for S CT/ RI/ SE MA/ CC and Islands. 6” delineation line will be I90 or so. Umm Ya. We can hope and pray for a stronger Secondary taking over earlier but I wouldn’t forecast it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 The 06zNAM has me a bit concerned. That’s a lot of sleet. On the one hand, it’s the NAM...proceed with caution... on the other hand, it matches the tenor of the season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 30 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said: Burbank going 1-3” for the coast. 3-6” inland. 6+ up by Manchester. Just enough to be a pain in the azz for two commutes. He’s on point this year. Didn’t flinch when Harv went gamgbusters early with 8-12 inside Northern 128 a couple winter storms ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, HoarfrostHubb said: The 06zNAM has me a bit concerned. That’s a lot of sleet. On the one hand, it’s the NAM...proceed with caution... on the other hand, it matches the tenor of the season. It's not just the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: The 06zNAM has me a bit concerned. That’s a lot of sleet. On the one hand, it’s the NAM...proceed with caution... on the other hand, it matches the tenor of the season. How many SWFE does one have to witness to realize the nam is king with mid levels in them and it’s not close 15?, 30? 5 years worth ? Infinity like Will said it’s nam at hr 66 but it leads the way with these unless somehow we pop a secondary stronger and Sooner (this year, I’d bet against that ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: It's not just the NAM. NAM is by far the least snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 If the NAM is right it’s another big zr /power issue storm for much of CT. This time falling at night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Yeah...calling a spade a spade here, this looks like another dung system for this area... and probably for most south of of Boston. looks like 1-2” before a changeover here. Just enough to make for a sloppy drive. Hopefully we don’t flash freeze like the last sloppy 2”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Weather Prediction Center has the 50% prob for 6 inches cutting from Central Berks to Hubbdave to Hollis NH to about Dover NH currently 50% of 2” line is PYM to KTAN to Ginxy to New Haven Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: NAM is by far the least snowy. Maybe so, but it's not on its own with there being a lot of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I have a grand total of around 1.5" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 49 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Your fortunes may turn in the late-week disaster. Rain going to flash freeze and snow. I think we'll end with some fresh white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: Maybe so, but it's not on its own with there being a lot of sleet. Every model has significant sleet south of CON. But the timing of the changeover matters a lot for snow. An early changeover means 2-4" and a later one would be like 6-10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Every model has significant sleet south of CON. But the timing of the changeover matters a lot for snow. An early changeover means 2-4" and a later one would be like 6-10". Split the difference and you get 4-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 That sleet line will race north. It always does in these . So will the zr line . Another narrow zone of siggy zr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Better than these plain rain ‘events’, so I’ll take the 2-4” snow/sleet and work from home on Tue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: That sleet line will race north. It always does in these . So will the zr line . Another narrow zone of siggy zr The 2m temps here are much colder than in the last system (I'm not sure about the one 2 systems ago). The temp/depth of the warm layer will need to be enough to keep it from being ip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, moneypitmike said: Split the difference and you get 4-6". Not a bad forecast. I'd go roughly that amount for pike region right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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