CoalCityWxMan Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 GFS is a bit further south, keeps areas near/north of I-80 mostly/all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said: GFS is a bit further south, keeps areas near/north of I-80 mostly/all snow It's also pretty weak sauce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 The difference in the placement of the snow/mix line is just lol worthy for being less than 24hrs out. GFS is an all snow event here and buries us with 6"+, while the RGEM says we'll be hearing the pitter-patter of rain on the roof all night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 Just now, cyclone77 said: The difference in the placement of the snow/mix line is just lol worthy for being less than 24hrs out. GFS is an all snow event here and buries us with 6"+, while the RGEM says we'll be hearing the pitter-patter of rain on the roof all night. It seems like this is every storm here in Iowa this winter. I have no doubts you'll pull out 6" or so somehow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I'm not really concerned about mixing anymore. The overall strength/qpf is more concerning now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 RAP pretty far north with the snow/mix line, similar to the RGEM. Think a blend is probably the best way to go at this point. First call for here/QC is 0.5-1.5" of snow, and a minor glaze of ice. May also see a period or plain rain later tomorrow evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 42 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: The difference in the placement of the snow/mix line is just lol worthy for being less than 24hrs out. GFS is an all snow event here and buries us with 6"+, while the RGEM says we'll be hearing the pitter-patter of rain on the roof all night. Yeah, thermal profiles are a mess. Of course it's less a question of snow around here. Conceptually speaking, with this type of track and daytime temps maybe peaking a degree or two above freezing at most, I see little reason to go against the idea of several hours of freezing rain here. Precip rates should generally be around .1" per hour or less, which is gonna ice things up nicely especially if it can stay a couple degrees below freezing for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 RAP pretty far north with the snow/mix line, similar to the RGEM. Think a blend is probably the best way to go at this point. First call for here/QC is 0.5-1.5" of snow, and a minor glaze of ice. May also see a period or plain rain later tomorrow evening. Low balling your area like usual.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 RAP pretty far north with the snow/mix line, similar to the RGEM. Think a blend is probably the best way to go at this point. First call for here/QC is 0.5-1.5" of snow, and a minor glaze of ice. May also see a period or plain rain later tomorrow evening. By the way, the RAP and HRRR continue to trend south each run, and are going to be horrendous in their extended ranges as they have been with several recent systems.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Tomorrow is looking like a bust for Minnesota. I guess we've gotten enough snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 00z UK.... shifted east like all the models this evening, but it's at the top of the qpf ranking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 00z euro Western Iowa up to Minneapolis have really had the rug pulled out from under them this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mogget Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Winter Storm Warnings in southern WI counties. Heavy snow with 6-9” of accumulation. From 9 PM Monday to midnight Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 WSW issued for tomorrow. Looking like a nice hit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 DTX issued a Winter Storm Watch for all its counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Anyone notice what the 06 3K nam did with a secondary low coming up through Ohio Tuesday? Or is that just the low re-positioning itself? Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 11, 2019 Author Share Posted February 11, 2019 Nothing like your 100 mile east shift with the QPF on the euro 24 hours before precip arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 29 minutes ago, weatherbo said: I don't think Euro is seeing the slop fest the hi res models are seeing for extreme Northern IL. Euro has the 3-6" look whereas the NAM has a mix almost at onset with it just rain in the loop parts of the event. Going with more ice and mix than snow for most of northern tier counties .10-.25 ice accretion along with 2" snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheRegionRat Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 1 hour ago, Cary67 said: I don't think Euro is seeing the slop fest the hi res models are seeing for extreme Northern IL. Euro has the 3-6" look whereas the NAM has a mix almost at onset with it just rain in the loop parts of the event. Going with more ice and mix than snow for most of northern tier counties .10-.25 ice accretion along with 2" snow. Another frustrating winter trudges onward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 12Z NAM sure looks icy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 17 minutes ago, Baum said: 12Z NAM sure looks icy around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TravisWx Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 12z NAM looking like a good hit for my area (Rogers City, MI in northern lower). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 8-12” becomes 6-8” becomes 4-6” becomes 2-4”. Big time model shift east inside 36hrs looks to make this more of a nuisance event in the Twin Cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Might LOT post ice storm warnings for certain areas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Wow, big time wallop looking likely for central WI. That map above has Madison flirting with double digit totals, although we whiffed on our previous opportunity to hit that single-storm benchmark earlier this winter. Still, what a turnaround from the bare ground of December and most of the first half of January, although the two thaws were annoying especially the second coming on the heels of the historic polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Unless the short range guidance 2m and sfc wet bulb temps are too cold this evening into tonight, would think we have to extend headlines south at least to I-80 corridor counties. With brisk east-northeast surface winds coming from the cool dry high pressure to the east, doesn't look good for temps warming rapidly above freezing. NAM12 verbatim has warning criteria ice all the way to 2 tiers south of the current advisory. Even if that's too far south and overdone with the ice accums, latest HRRR has headline worthy ice accums in the I-80 counties not currently in the advisory. The other challenging aspect is exact p-type. Most recent RAP/HRRR are colder and have mainly sleet for I-88 counties and snow for WI border counties. From what I recall, RAP/HRRR did a good job picking up on the more stout low level cold wedge for our pinger fest on 12/28/2015. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 Might LOT post ice storm warnings for certain areas?Likely would be WSW’s, given a mix of p-types.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 The 12z RGEM following the NAM, and coming in SE. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted February 11, 2019 Share Posted February 11, 2019 I have no idea what to expect here in Toronto. There are so many possible outcomes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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