Cary67 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Surface low tracks from northern Oklahoma to that position in IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Should be a pretty decent band of ice with this but track differences make it difficult to get too specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 29 minutes ago, weatherbo said: Is that 20'' for southern MN and Wisconsin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 49 minutes ago, Cary67 said: Your plots make it look more normal. On Pivotal's map it appeared to from E/Central Ill due north. Yep, another consistent track over us. Not good for a decent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Starting to get tough not to be excited about the prospects of a big hit imby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maneee Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Yeah really starting to wonder if we will get a large snowfall, the good news is if we don’t it won’t be for a lack of good systems. Strong winds on the backside will be fun either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Cold rain for me. So excited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 20 minutes ago, Maneee said: Yeah really starting to wonder if we will get a large snowfall, the good news is if we don’t it won’t be for a lack of good systems. Strong winds on the backside will be fun either way. never been a big wind guy myself..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Regarding the ice potential, would note a couple things. One, the warm nose aloft generally looks a bit less blowtorchy warm than the last system. Two, while precip rates should be decent, the really high end rates/thunderstorms look less likely. Both of those factors would suggest a lower percentage of runoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Just put under a flood watch here again from Sun. night till Tues. morning. My point forecast for the time period totals 1.5 inches of total precip, supposed to come as a mixture of snow, then freezing rain, and then rain. I think the more significant ice potential will be north of me in north central IN and possibly southern parts of Chicago county warning area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Not liking my position in Iowa City. Looks like the best totals will be highway 20 and north. Which is usual of high end events out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 18z NAM to hoosier's point becoming a little icer at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Looks like a 4-phaser here with this one. Similar to an east coast event with snow to sleet, then frz rain to rain. Doesn't seem to happen here all that much, so should be a little interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Has the GFS-FV3 ever been correct?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 9, 2019 Author Share Posted February 9, 2019 5 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Has the GFS-FV3 ever been correct? That's two events using Kuchera method on a model that's been wetter than most other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, ILSNOW said: Has the GFS-FV3 ever been correct?? It uses the same cutting edge forecast technology that was used to develop this product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 6 minutes ago, AppsRunner said: That's two events using Kuchera method on a model that's been wetter than most other guidance. Heres 10:1 H Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 ^ I'm riding that and the Canadian for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 So do we ignore the 00Z nam or what. Seem's like a game changer to me. At least as far as the hi-res american models go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 18 minutes ago, Frog Town said: So do we ignore the 00Z nam or what. Seem's like a game changer to me. At least as far as the hi-res american models go. Not ignore, especially since this is not out at 84 hours anymore. The NAM is kinda like watching election results start to come in. The early returns (in this case the NAM) can sometimes be deceiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Surface low is a bit jumpy on the NAM after 48 hours. Maybe some convective influence there with the model trying to figure out where to place the L. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Would be nice if the GFS could handle shallow cold better. I'd almost bet money it is shoving the freezing line north too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Trends are weak,south, progressive tonight via models. Looks like another nuisance event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 GFS has a secondary deformation feature. Doesn't produce much verbatim but keep an eye on it I guess if you're looking for flakes farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Hoosier said: GFS has a secondary deformation feature. Doesn't produce much verbatim but keep an eye on it I guess if you're looking for flakes farther south. am i correct in being somewhat disappointed in tonight's early runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 4 minutes ago, Baum said: am i correct in being somewhat disappointed in tonight's early runs? For Chicago metro, yeah. I just checked the 00z GEM and you still have that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 10, 2019 Author Share Posted February 10, 2019 The NAM has repeatedly been underdoing precip in its long range, I have little faith in its solution outside 48 hours. Meanwhile the GFS/GEM are largely similar to previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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