Cary67 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 0Z GFS mostly a rainer for Chicago area. SLP up through Milwaukee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 18 minutes ago, Cary67 said: 0Z GFS mostly a rainer for Chicago area. SLP up through Milwaukee. ..and the beat goes on for Lwr Lakes (insert face palm) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Grumble grumble....Sunday afternoon flight out of O'hare....grumble grumble Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 We'll see what the Euro does but so far, we are setting up the American vs foreign model battle with the GEM and UKMET taking a farther south track. This is the same storm that is currently affecting the Pacific northwest, so there is partial RAOB sampling. Evidently not enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 The first month and a half of winter wasn't rough enough. Sick addiction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 33 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: ..and the beat goes on for Lwr Lakes (insert face palm) lol the storm at the end of the week looks to go even further NW. non-stop rain storms for the lower lakes to end out winter....yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Antecedent arctic airmass and fact storm will occlude relatively quickly means even with a GFS track, a decent front-end thump for areas further east. That being said, looks like the GFS may be wrapping the sfc low too far NW based on H5 s/w axis. Seems like it would more likely to be over NE IN/NW OH vs MKE at 102. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 I'd appreciate some of what the GEM ingested. GFS/GEM could play Cheech & Chong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Euro 997 hr 72 at central KS/OK border to 985 hr 96 eastern shore of lake mich near new buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 0z euro took a big step south. Tracks the low near the I70 corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Between the 72 and 96 hour maps, the surface low goes from southwest Missouri toward St. Louis and then south of Kankakee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 I need a cig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 6 hours ago, Chinook said: Latest Euro has lots of snowfall for northern Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota Latest is about 1.3'' for southern MN (0.2 for Sunday). That'll be around 18''+ of snow. Closing in on records. This month is starting to turn into December 2010 for Minnesota. Minneapolis has received 10.4 so for this month. 26.5'' is the record. There's this system and another one behind it. Some places will have more than 2.5' of snow on the ground. I'm starting to worry about spring flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UMB WX Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Going in to this winter I was sweating another congrats, DTX. El Nino, +PNA AO favoring the east, SE Trend alive and one could go on with winters prior trends. Nice to get a wrench thrown to humble. 2 events in 84 hrs. So much uncertainty yet. This is a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MNstorms Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frog Town Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 GRR riding the Euro's SE trend pretty hard for those in the the southern lakes area. As for our storm on Tuesday... this is a system that went over the top of the large upper ridge over Alaska and dove south to just off the west coast of the Pacific Northwest. There is yet a strong system trailing it that will boot this system quickly east. As that system moves into the front side of the longwave trough, it will go negative tilt at upper levels and deepen rapidly as it comes out of the southern Plains toward Michigan. The ECMWF has trended farther south and east with each model run since the 7th 00z. This would suggest a more southern track for this system and would favor less freezing rain if this trend continues. It will be a high QPF event as there is around an inch of precipitable water feeding it. We will continue to monitor this system. I could see winter headlines for this system by Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Izzi from LOT says Euro ensembles aren't as south as operational so not sure if the southward trend is believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 7 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said: Izzi from LOT says Euro ensembles aren't as south as operational so not sure if the southward trend is believable MKE take The operational 00Z GFS is furthest north, taking the 850 low across central Wisconsin. The ECMWF, on the other hand, takes the low across Chicago, which is an ideal track for a winter storm across southern Wisconsin. Between these two is the GFS Ensemble mean, which lends some credence to a more southerly track. Either way, winds will increase considerably heading into Tuesday morning, as the low deepens quite rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 ^ The trend has been for all of these storms to track over or just north of Chicago. Until you see a marked change in the pattern that's probably the way to go. Hope here is there is enough residual cold air to get some front end WAA snows prior to the change to Ice/Rain. And than a change that starts to get these storms tracking through the O/V from mid February-Mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Looking like snow here tomorrow evening then the kitchen sink Monday night and Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 hour ago, Baum said: ^ The trend has been for all of these storms to track over or just north of Chicago. Until you see a marked change in the pattern that's probably the way to go. Hope here is there is enough residual cold air to get some front end WAA snows prior to the change to Ice/Rain. And than a change that starts to get these storms tracking through the O/V from mid February-Mid March. I'm not sold yet on the change to a more southern track. If anything I think were seeing the pattern that winter will end with. Its going to be a roller coaster but definitely not boring. As of right now 1" light snow sunday, 2-4" of snow Tuesday followed by rain, 50s and rain Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 5 hours ago, Frog Town said: GRR riding the Euro's SE trend pretty hard for those in the the southern lakes area. As for our storm on Tuesday... this is a system that went over the top of the large upper ridge over Alaska and dove south to just off the west coast of the Pacific Northwest. There is yet a strong system trailing it that will boot this system quickly east. As that system moves into the front side of the longwave trough, it will go negative tilt at upper levels and deepen rapidly as it comes out of the southern Plains toward Michigan. The ECMWF has trended farther south and east with each model run since the 7th 00z. This would suggest a more southern track for this system and would favor less freezing rain if this trend continues. It will be a high QPF event as there is around an inch of precipitable water feeding it. We will continue to monitor this system. I could see winter headlines for this system by Monday. If you knew that office, you'd read that as "we're increasingly excited for GR proper, certainly not for anyone south of here wrt possible headlines".. Not even here, let alone TOLEDO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 12Z models have pretty much held serve with the american models cutting the low farther west then the foreign models below is the GFS FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 I hope that this low tracks over Chicago. That would be a perfect winter storm track for Southern WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 ^ I hope it continues to bump SE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Euro 72 hrs 1000mb low over central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 ^ Bizzarre. If I'm seeing things correct comes E/SE into central Il. and than heads due north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 1 minute ago, Baum said: ^ Bizzarre. Why do you say that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted February 9, 2019 Share Posted February 9, 2019 50 minutes ago, Baum said: ^ Bizzarre. If I'm seeing things correct comes E/SE into central Il. and than heads due north? Thermal profiles too warm anyways compared to 0Z. Trending towards a small event for Chicago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.