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Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019


AppsRunner

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17 hours ago, Maneee said:

I was reading this feeling immense appreciation for LOT. They improve  every single year and they keep us appraised of all forecast changes and thought processes. 

 

11 hours ago, Chicago Storm said:

Not only is LOT doing a horrendous job, but DVN is following as well.

Ice accums by GBG have exceeded the forecast and are in warning criteria range now.


.

 

 

Classic internet posts.

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2 hours ago, josh_4184 said:

Looking pretty good for you Bo, seems like the UP has been really cashing in on synoptic events this year. Looks like 8-10 for me with a little LES behind it. 

DzNFZRTWsAAAZ_N.jpg:large

 

Kinda seems that way, but most areas here are still normal to a little below for the season but probably not after today.

Latest 3k NAM (Kuchera ratios, 24" imby by 7 am).

download.png.3e4daff4f443c90d4d08c901e0f2aa0c.png

snku_acc.us_mw.jpg.073a393217b00985da4c0ed98f3358bc.jpg

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23 minutes ago, RyanDe680 said:

 

 

 

Classic internet posts.

They were both right. There should be much appreciation. The forecast was clearly wrong, and it should have been clear by 7:30 PM that freezing rain in a good chunk of the area was going to be the predominant precip. type. Odd thing is as I pointed out yesterday there discussion points hit on the potential hazards but didn't translate to the actual forecast. Granted, it was a complicated call for sure. But even today, a wind advisory when they are calling for 1-2 " of afternoon/PM snowfall with 35 mph wind gusts/blowing snow with minimum .25 ice on trees maybe  underdoing the potential hazards. 

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MKX catching some flack as well (as I think they probably should) for waiting so long to upgrade Milwaukee and Waukesha counties to a Winter Storm Warning.  My grid yesterday morning had 2-4" last night, up to an inch during the day, and area wide we have well over 6" I believe right now.  All models yesterday showed at least a half foot across the metro.

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High end advisory stuff on the southern edge of MKE County. I absolutely would have included MKE and Waukesha but with it coming in two waves, possible taint and dryslot  it wasn't a slam dunk. The timing of the heavy snow was definitely going to cause issues and what do you know the NAM was right on the money along with the big grande cheese EURO in this one up here.  QPF amounts were there for me to AUTO  Warning this for all of Southern, WI.

Somehow stayed 99% snow here but the first 1/3 of the storm was a pixie joke as usual in MBY like every event this winter.  Winter storms are so finicky and this will have been a good lessons learned event

Dammed if you do and Dammed if you don't for LOT and MKE offices.     Good thing Cyclone low balled his area and didn't go with the ChiStorm model output.

 

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2 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Where in DeKalb County are you? I can forward your report to the office for an LSR if you haven't yet.

Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk
 

I am out in Oak Brook and I see the landscape littered with trees that look like that.  Its going to be a disaster once winds pick up.  The fog has settled on the trees and wires all over here.  

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Good thing Cyclone low balled his area and didn't go with the ChiStorm model output.

 

That’s not how you forecast though. You have to go with model guidance, and forecast based off of that. You can’t just go off of a hunch, that’s not how it works. Cyclone has low-balled his area every storm this season, except for this one.

 

The problem is offices stuck with their original forecasts and did not alter things until it was much to late, LOT most significantly. It was pretty clear by 6-7PM that this was going to be an ice event for most areas and not a bigger snow or sleet event. However, LOT for example didn’t really catch up until several hours later.

 

While NAM performed the best, it was even way off...with the snow/freezing rain line having made it into S. Wisconsin and north of DBQ. The warm “wedge” aloft was actually deeper and warmer than modeled by any guidance as well.

 

 

.

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The Toledo area had storm reports of 0.3" of ice and 0.4" of ice. That's got to be a pretty bad one. I don't know when the last time when Toledo had that much ice accumulation. In my years of living in Ohio and Michigan, I don't recall any ice accumulations greater than 0.25", but there may have been some icing greater than that in 1990.

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3 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:


With temps still only 32/33 around the area and slow melting, things are looking prime for tree damage/power outages.


.

Yeah, it should take more of a toll on the power grid compared to what has already happened.

Subfreezing temps advancing through IL

il_sfc.gif.24593554f7f32061971ccf6a338df0db.gif

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14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Time to bust this out?  I've never known if winds refers to sustained or gusts...

icesto3.jpg.44798843cbfff68e8eb317d37a4779c4.jpg

Figured I would give this a bump since we have widespread .4”+ reports with wind incoming...

edit: back under freezing, not hearing nearly as much dripping/melting. Going to be an interesting afternoon. 

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2 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said:

Figured I would give this a bump since we have widespread .4”+ reports with wind incoming...

edit: back under freezing, not hearing nearly as much dripping/melting. Going to be an interesting afternoon. 

Based on your ice accretion and winds likely over 35mph that would put you in the 4 category. Yikes. Your pictures are incredible! That's a lot of ice

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3 hours ago, RyanDe680 said:

 

 

 

Classic internet posts.

Yeah-- oh well. My comment was directed at LOT as a whole, not how the dealt with this storm. Also that comment was in reference to how bad GRR is and how I feel lucky to be in LOT CWA.  Ah, well. The internet is the internet. 

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