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Winter Storm - February 11-13, 2019


AppsRunner

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Just now, cyclone77 said:

The sleet has given way to mostly freezing rain the past hour or so, with a few rogue ice pellets now and again.  Looks like the change back over to snow won't occur till after midnight when the precip event is largely over.  

I think it’ll change over to snow in time for a good shot for you, the 00z RAP and HRRR hold onto this. We are a bit too far west to get the heavy snow here, looks like we will end at about 3 inches in DSM. Hang in there!

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1 minute ago, ConvectiveIA said:

I think it’ll change over to snow in time for a good shot for you, the 00z RAP and HRRR hold onto this. We are a bit too far west to get the heavy snow here, looks like we will end at about 3 inches in DSM. Hang in there!

Haha I'm good with this mix bag.  It's been pretty entertaining watching the phases change throughout the event.  If I were to choose I'd definitely want an all snow event, but we've had a great season so it's all good. 

Looking ahead to tomorrow I'm wondering if there may be a window for some heavy snow squall action rotating around the back side of the cyclonic circulation.  3km NAM soundings show pretty steep low-level lapse rates over northern IL.  

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Really?  Have a glaze here though pavement is more watery.

Looks like GYY isn't reporting temp.

 

4 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Really?  Have a glaze here though pavement is more watery.

Looks like GYY isn't reporting temp.

As best I can tell, it's not freezing to pavement yet.  Just walked outside, but not away from house.  Could the wind have anything to do with it?

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LOT update

National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL
737 PM CST Mon Feb 11 2019

.SHORT TERM...
734 PM CST

Through tonight...

Only modest changes to going forecast so far this evening.
Guidance is struggling with the northern extent of the warm nose
this evening. Several raob soundings over the area indicate
temperatures within the warm nose over Chicago to be between 0.5
and 1.5C, sufficient for partial if not full melting aloft.
Surface obs indicate some sort of wintry mix that includes liquid
precip over all but the northern tier of counties in the CWA.
Adjusting temperatures aloft accordingly brings the wintry mix
farther north across the CWA and nets slightly lower snow totals
and higher ice totals between the I-80 and I-90 corridors, and
tightens the snow gradient in that area. Little change was made
farther north which is expected to remain primarily snow.
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13 minutes ago, TheRegionRat said:

 

As best I can tell, it's not freezing to pavement yet.  Just walked outside, but not away from house.  Could the wind have anything to do with it?

Pavement temps got somewhat warm during the day.  Even my pavement is more watery than not, at least by the house.  

I don't think winds at the current intensity are that big of a deal in precluding freezing.  Would probably have to be stronger but I could be wrong.

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I relayed your report to the office. Did you happen to measure or estimate how much ice you've gotten?  
Edit: Also, where about are you in Kankakee?
 
 
 

Not who you asked but I’m in Momence. Grill and wooden porch stoop covered with a layer of ice. Dogs slipped running out to the backyard
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18 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

I relayed your report to the office. Did you happen to measure or estimate how much ice you've gotten?

 

Edit: Also, where about are you in Kankakee?

 

 

 

I’m on the southwest side of Kankakee. I just went outside and have about 0.10” on my trees/bushes. Branches are crackling in the wind. My girlfriends car is now encased in ice. Driveway...my street... total skating rink. It’s not great here. :lol:

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