February 10-12, 2019 Storm

[Ralph Wiggum]

12 minutes ago, showmethesnow said:

As I mentioned yesterday, until there is a semblance of continuity between the models and their run over runs we really won't know what to root for. Something might be good for one particular setup and yet be bad for another. And this doesn't even consider that different solutions/setups mean different results for different sections of our region (north vs. south vs. cities vs eastern shore vs etc...) About the only thing I am rooting for is that we see strong high pressures over top and a continuation of the general theme of a weakness off the coast. Maybe even throw in a move towards seeing lower pressures in the Tennessee Valley as well though I am not 100% certain on that. So who knows, lets see what we have come Sat or even Sun and work off of that.

eta: who said OBX (or general region) redevelopment is off the table? I think it is still very much in play here.

I added an ETA to my OP a few minutes before u replied but ty for explaining it. Appreciate you!

[Ralph Wiggum]

11 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

Hes just mad cause it might finally snow, and he'll have to flick the debbie button off for a while.

Please...I'm generally fairly balanced. Sure there are deb and less optimistic moments but usually they are justified. But go back over my posts from say Monday and Tuesday....I was one of the most optimistic on the entire forum tbh. My morning coffee has put a warm smile on my face FWIW so there's that 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

What hour does 6z Eps go out to?

Asking for a friend 

As I said these maps can be suspect and they look pretty similar but you can see a slight further extension south of the snow. 

[pasnownut]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Please...I'm generally fairly balanced. Sure there are deb less optimistic moments but usually they are justified. But go back over my posts from say Monday and Tuesday....I was one of the most optimistic on the entire forum tbh. My morning coffee has put a warm smile on my face FWIW so there's that 

just bustin.  Cant you tell? 

 

TBH when you DO debbie, you do her well.

(dont take that the wrong way either)  lol

[tombo82685]

They are colder with a flatter H5 look. Still doesn't support an all snow event but could raise the bar for more thump on the front end and also help you guys out with the overunning event beforehand. Also, the colder 850 with stronger CAD could lead to an icier look too. 

[LP08]

@showmethesnow Great write up as usual. One thing that I was looking at this morning on the EPS and what may have lead to some of the weaker Midwest lows is just the entire H5 progression is slower.  I have 0z and 12z below for comparison.  It looks to me that the EPS is leaving even more energy out in the PAC NW which allows heights to build in front of our developing low pressure.  My worry with this entire setup, which has been started a ton, is that slower is not better.  I may be off base here but wanted to throw that out there.

[Yeoman]

21 minutes ago, BigB said:

Hey everyone,

I'm a high school senior who, in all honesty, doesn't understand half the stuff you guys are saying. With that said, I am competent enough to realize that we have some potential for next week. What are the odds that I am off of school at some point next week. We usually need 4'' to "get off" (get it-18 year old humor). Just trying to extend my knowledge beyond the fantastic job the school system does nowadays.  

-the biggest of B's

Take this crap to banter and let them roast you there. 

[anotherman]

1 hour ago, BigB said:

Hey everyone,

I'm a high school senior who, in all honesty, doesn't understand half the stuff you guys are saying. With that said, I am competent enough to realize that we have some potential for next week. What are the odds that I am off of school at some point next week. We usually need 4'' mark to "get off" (get it-18 year old humor). Just trying to extend my knowledge beyond the fantastic job the school system does nowadays.  

-the biggest of B's

3

Sounds like most of this forum.  (I know it's banter but I couldn't resist)

[Heisy]

Improved ICON look so far @ 108 hrs compared to 6z run. Less phasing going on with that Canadian shortwave. HP in better location

[LP08]

4 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Improved ICON look so far @ 108 hrs compared to 6z run. Less phasing going on with that Canadian shortwave. HP in better location

Certainly faster than even the 6z gfs as well which delays the phasing somewhat.  Would like to see that continue.

[SnowGoose69]

7 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Improved ICON look so far @ 108 hrs compared to 6z run. Less phasing going on with that Canadian shortwave. HP in better location

The ICON is also juiced and way north at 90-102 with the first overrunning wave more than any other model outside of the 12Z NAM at the end of its range.  That is likely affecting the entire setup in place behind it and subsequently the big system we are all focusing on 

[MillvilleWx]

Good to see my chances of using the FV3 exclusively have dwindled quickly lol. In any case, starting to see some agreement with the H5 evolution. Deepening cyclogenesis out in the plains will certainly aid in low level warm air advection to the east, but a short period of snow and ice is still in the cards. In fact, the biggest discrepancy I could find between the global's is the strength of the surface high across Canada, with a second being the strength of the Midwest surface low being #2. A stronger high will induce a more prolific CAD signature down the eastern Apps, so the cold would be tougher to scower out, even with the 850mb winds coming out of the southwest. This could be one of these cases where snow transitions to sleet/ZR for valley locales as the low level inversion tries to hang tight with NE surface flow continuing on the front side of the high. Areas like Western MD could see more snow in the onset, but quickly flip to rain as the SW winds usher warm air quickly at the higher elevations. Areas to the east like Cumberland, HGR, Winchester, and the Northern Shenandoah might struggle to climb quickly and temps hover into the low 30's longer. It's a sneaky setup where the strength and positioning of the surface high will be everything in what we get in the MA. I'll be intrigued to see what the meso guidance has closing in on the depth and magnitude of the cold air prior to any incoming precip. 

[LP08]

Less phasing on the GFS and quicker.  The high to the north is also quicker to scoot so the cold isn't as deep.  This storm is far from knowing the outcome.

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Less phasing on the GFS and quicker.  The high to the north is also quicker to scoot so the cold isn't as deep.  This storm is far from knowing the outcome.

Pretty big changes on GFS at H5 at 114.  Not smart enough to say whether they are good/bad but any change is probably good at this point.  

EDIT:  Weenie snowmap is better so I will go with that.  Looks like more front end thump, less deluge.  

[stormtracker]

Well GFS is different at the SFSU. While still not ideal, it’s better.   Lol for the plains folks and getting pulled into that blizzard 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, jaydreb said:

Pretty big changes on GFS at H5 at 114.  Not smart enough to say whether they are good/bad but any change is probably good at this point.  

H5 changes are good..less energy holding back, more emphasis on the lead wave the goes under us, but the high is worse, weaker and further north so that might offset some of the positives.  

[LP08]

Pretty nuts.  Good hit for our northern friends.  (and people always complain that cutters never move, ).  Secondary pops off the VA coastline.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well GFS is different at the SFSU. While still not ideal, it’s better.   Lol for the plains folks and getting pulled into that blizzard 

We get a good amount of frozen on the GFS, coastal gets going a little north for us but it's close. 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, DCTeacherman said:

We get a good amount of frozen on the GFS, coastal gets going a little north for us but it's close. 

CAD wont be modeled well at this point as we all know.  need a better wedge and stronger HP in a better location based on that run.  not too much to ask. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

H5 changes are good..less energy holding back, more emphasis on the lead wave the goes under us, but the high is worse, weaker and further north so that might offset some of the positives.  

I think we can rely heavily on climo at this point. CAD is pressing in better than any previous attempt this year so I'm inclined to just go off memory of previous events. Starting to feel like you will get a warning level event before the flip. My yard will get the kitchen sink but still put up some numbers. DC might be in some trouble here but I'm always rooting for them. 

[WxUSAF]

Don’t fall too in love with the TT GFS snow map as a lot of that is sleet. But I think a slightly improved result for us regardless. Weaker low is a big plus, but weaker and farther north high pressure offsets that to a degree.

[MillvilleWx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I think we can rely heavily on climo at this point. CAD is pressing in better than any previous attempt this year so I'm inclined to just go off memory of previous events. Starting to feel like you will get a warning level event before the flip. My yard will get the kitchen sink but still put up some numbers. DC might be in some trouble here but I'm always rooting for them. 

This is my feeling as well Bob. CAD events like this have been known to improve in the short term as models get a better handle on the depth of the cold air. 

[Bob Chill]

Here's some visuals. Precip is up near EZF by this panel. Check out the midlevel wind barbs. They haven't back southerly yet. This indicates a relatively efficient CAD setup. How far does it press? Does the GFS underdo this stuff? Has history proven that we overperform more often than underperform when midlevel flow remains northerly right before onset?

 

Check out the surface flow when precip is coming down. It never backs southerly. This is the worst surface panel and it's easterly flow. Very efficient keeping insitu CAD from getting roasted. At this point in the storm (verbatim on gfs), if your temps are below freezing they aren't getting above freezing until precip shuts off. Even the normally warm surface on the gfs only has temps hovering a few degress above freezing. 

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Don’t fall too in love with the TT GFS snow map as a lot of that is sleet. But I think a slightly improved result for us regardless. Weaker low is a big plus, but weaker and farther north high pressure offsets that to a degree.

Sleety feel as well.. and sleet is usually a short-lived event before a changeover! Hoping on better CAD and a better HP.

 

[LP08]

FV3 looks to have a nice thump to dry slot. 

[MillvilleWx]

GFS wind field is actually a really good signal for precip enhancement for our northern tier on that run. Easterly surface flow banked against the terrain should provide enhancement to the precip field across Carroll county to Frederick Co north of I-70. Temps will certainly struggle to climb with that setup across the area. Good run for frozen. 

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Canadian is pretty weak but mostly snow and dry slot. 2-4”

[jaydreb]

1 minute ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

Canadian is pretty weak but mostly snow and dry slot. 2-4”

I’ll take it.  

[HighStakes]

2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

GFS wind field is actually a really good signal for precip enhancement for our northern tier on that run. Easterly surface flow banked against the terrain should provide enhancement to the precip field across Carroll county to Frederick Co north of I-70. Temps will certainly struggle to climb with that setup across the area. Good run for frozen. 

I thought it was a good run too. Mostly all frozen up here. Not sure on how much snow but would think at least decent amount. Get the high a little stronger and slightly better positioned and this could be a nasty event.

[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Pretty nuts.  Good hit for our northern friends.  (and people always complain that cutters never move, ).  Secondary pops off the VA coastline.

I think this fallacy is due to 2 things...

1.  We don't usually track the details on a rainstorm.  There is a HUGE areal coverage of rain in any system, but a fairly small area of snow.  We only care about the snow.  We can be 50 miles or 500 miles from the rain snow line and it makes no difference to us.  We also don't notice when our qpf goes from 1.25 to .75 or from .75 to .5 in the rainfall area.  We stop following it closely once we are out of the game for snow and so we simply assume...rain is rain and it never changes but it does.  

2.  There was a time when outside of 48 hours systems were MUCH more likely to trend north than south.  That time is gone.  Inside 48 hours they still mostly trend north.  But outside 48 hours systems are just as likely to trend south as north now.  We have had several snowstorms the last 5 years that were supposed to go north of us at day 5.  The December storm trended south between day 3-6.  The January storm was rain at day 7+.  The anafront wave last week trended southeast from range.  It happens a lot now but I think the thought that north is more likely than south persists even though that bias in the guidance has been corrected.