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February 10-12, 2019 Storm


WxUSAF

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5 minutes ago, RDM said:

Ok - reasonable for inside the beltways (both of them).  What's your threshold for a HECS and BECS?  Propose something on the order of 24"+ is HECS territory and 30"+ is a BECS... Add winds over 30 kts to the mix and drop the thresholds 6" each 

Let's create a voting thread. lol  Imo, 8-12" = SECS, 12"-15" = MECS, "15-20" = HECS, 20"+ = BECS for DCA

eta: My first comment was wrong ;)

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Am I the only one who thinks arguing over the weenie classification of the Jan storm is completely ridiculous? It was a long duration double digit snowfall over several million peoples yards. It was a significant and uncommon storm so stfu and discuss how many sleet pellets I get before copious rainfall. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Am I the only one who thinks arguing over the weenie classification of the Jan storm is completely ridiculous? It was a long duration double digit snowfall over several million peoples yards. It was a significant and uncommon storm so stfu and discuss how many sleet pellets I get before copious rainfall. 

We're about to get washed out.  Who cares?

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Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said:

Let's create a voting thread. lol  Imo, 8-12" = SECS, 12"-15" = MECS, "15-20" = HECS, 20"+ = BECS for DCA

Drop it dude. Nobody gives a crap about what weenie acronym is used to classify any storm. It's a completely made up and subjective rating system and arguing over it in a storm obs thread is beyond dumb. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Am I the only one who thinks arguing over the weenie classification of the Jan storm is completely ridiculous? It was a long duration double digit snowfall over several million peoples yards. It was a significant and uncommon storm so stfu and discuss how many sleet pellets I get before copious rainfall. 

I was wondering that too. I’ve just been ignoring the banter and trying to figure out if I will have any frozen before my yard is a mud pit again. 

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8 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

You posted the 10% chance of higher snowfall...where do you see a max of 7” for Bel Air?

Tonight
Snow after 7pm, mixing with freezing rain after 4am. Low around 28. South wind around 5 mph becoming calm in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. Total nighttime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Monday
Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 1pm, then rain and sleet between 1pm and 4pm, then freezing rain and sleet after 4pm. High near 35. Calm wind becoming northeast around 6 mph in the morning. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no ice accumulation expected. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
Monday Night
Snow, freezing rain, and sleet before 4am, then freezing rain and sleet. Low around 30. East wind 6 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible.
Tuesday
Rain or freezing rain, becoming all rain after 1pm. High near 38. East wind around 14 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible.
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Lwx has my yard in 1-2"? That's pretty bullish imho. I can see .2 - .3 qpf fall as snow but not accumulation. I'll hug it though...

The one thing I can see happening to give dc/nova more snow than expected is heavy enough precip rates to cool the midlevels more than modeled. Very unlikely but possible. I don't even have a bar with this event. 1" is a boom scenario imo

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

Lwx has my yard in 1-2"? That's pretty bullish imho. I can see .2 - .3 qpf fall as snow but not accumulation. I'll hug it though...

The one thing I can see happening to give dc/nova more snow than expected is heavy enough precip rates to cool the midlevels more than modeled. Very unlikely but possible. I don't even have a bar with this event. 1" is a boom scenario imo

35/15. I am pulling for the northern and west crew and hoping and hugging 1-2" for my backyard.

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Winter Storm Watches out for Mason/Dixon (Frederick, Carroll, Northern Baltimore/Harford) from 4pm Monday to 10am Tuesday

Quote

* WHAT...1 to 3 inches of snow is expected through Monday morning.
There is the potential for 5 or more inches of snow and
additional freezing rain Monday night into Tuesday, especially
near the Pennsylvania border. Snow will overspread the area
through 9 pm this evening. Snow will change to a mix of sleet
and freezing rain between 1 AM and 4 AM overnight, and that 
will continue into Monday morning. Precipitation may mix with or
even change to rain late Monday morning and afternoon before 
changing back to a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain 
Monday night and continuing into Tuesday morning. 

* WHERE...Frederick, Carroll, Northern Baltimore and Northwest 
Harford Counties in northern Maryland.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, until 10 AM EST 
Monday. For the Winter Storm Watch, from Monday afternoon 
through Tuesday morning.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The morning commute will be impacted by
snow covered and icy surfaces. Plan on slippery road conditions
and possible power outages due to snow and ice Monday night into
Tuesday. Travel may become extremely difficult during this time. 

 

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