PhineasC Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 5 minutes ago, ravensrule said: I know my place and I have been on these boards for more than a decade. OK, well maybe next time don't fly in out of nowhere and drop a turd on someone when you are ignorant of the context. Just some friendly advice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 50 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I hate to be selfish on this one but my Son just had surgery a few days ago. He is doing fine, but I have to get him to Hopkins Tuesday morning for his post op and to change his surgical bandages. I can deal with snow no problem. Freezing rain is a problem. So I’m not rooting for a ton of freezing rain here. Snow or rain please. Best wishes for your son. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Mid level clouds thickening up nicely. Classic warm air advection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Temp has pretty much remained steady at 32.1 since the clouds rolled in an hour ago. Dont see it rising more than 2 or 3 degrees before precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 31 as the clouds have rolled. My bar is 35...stay below that and I think my house sees more frozen than wet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 I am 31 here with a 14 Dew. I think we see a little thump before the flip. I would rather just torch right now and not have the ice in all honesty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: 31 as the clouds have rolled. My bar is 35...stay below that and I think my house sees more frozen than wet. I’m already at 36. I’ll get my galloshes ready. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 minutes ago, nj2va said: I’m already at 36. I’ll get my galloshes ready. I'm not delusional my 32 and rain is no different than your 36 and rain. I still think it's fun to anticipate though...stuff happens sometimes. I won't be disappointed if its rainy but I'll be happy if it's a good bit frozen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: I'm not delusional my 32 and rain is no different than your 36 and rain. I still think it's fun to anticipate though...stuff happens sometimes. I won't be disappointed if its rainy but I'll be happy if it's a good bit frozen Yeah I actually think west of DC will be in a nice little surprise...these are the types of events that can catch people off guard especially if CAD overperforms like we usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Chilly 36 with solid cloud cover. Looking like temps will bust low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Might need a flood watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Where is Yoda with the decent ukmet snowmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 54 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Thanks for the well wishes all. He is doing well now and should be fine. Just don’t want to have to drive him to the hospital on a sheet of ice and really don’t want to have to try to reschedule. Already took the day off work and all plus he needs the medical attention. Phin is alright. His last post was actually funny I thought. 1.) I’m very happy to hear your son is doing better. 2.) I read your posts & many other good posters in here every day. Thank you for your daily contributions to this forum! 3.) I am from the Harrisburg, PA area & I never post in here. I enjoy the good read each day, but I realize that I should just do my posting in my home Central PA forum. 4.) @Ruin please let these good folks alone & come post in the Central PA forum. We could actually use more posters up here if you want to contribute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
King George Dee Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 39 and partly sunny ....sigh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Latest RAP and HRRR are ugly. I dont see a single flake on either of them. The early slug of precip goes north of the Shenandoah Valley. Time to break out a fork and stick this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 i have 35ish here... roughly 2 degrees below the forecast temp at this hour for what thats worth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Latest RAP and HRRR are ugly. I dont see a single flake on either of them. The early slug of precip goes north of the Shenandoah Valley. Time to break out a fork and stick this one. I don't have much hope for this event in my location besides brief frozen before the rain however, I wouldn't even look at the HRRR in this situation, it is going to push the boundary layer warming way too aggressively. It did it with the last event and will torch things too easily imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Where is Yoda with the decent ukmet snowmap It seems to have come to its senses at least for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 32/12 in Augusta County. Still hoping for something frozen tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 2 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Why is PA trolling us this year??? And I love the pa sub...was a regular contributor there years ago and still pop in time to time but a few a$$clowns are making them look bad. Hey hey hey - that guy has never posted in our region appropriate sub so don’t bunch him with us! We are a great bunch but really having a rough winter like everyone else. I think Baltimore north has a decent shot at frozen issues Tuesday morning. Anyone south unfortunately - doesn’t look promising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 3 minutes ago, mattb65 said: I don't have much hope for this event in my location besides brief frozen before the rain however, I wouldn't even look at the HRRR in this situation, it is going to push the boundary layer warming way too aggressively. It did it with the last event and will torch things too easily imo. Agreed it is bad with temps. But it usually does pretty good with precip positioning and that is what kills my chances. The first slug of moisture goes north of my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 17 minutes ago, 87storms said: agreed, and at this point we're just missing out on incredible snow chances. one good storm with all the rain we've had in the past few months shows that we haven't been lacking in the pattern with regards to precip; we've been lacking with cold air that just never could get locked in long enough. on the bright side, the pattern looks to continue, so there could still be some chances in the next few weeks to get a wall to wall snowstorm. one more storm would make this a solid winter, albeit an underperformer when you add in all the precip we wasted. Seems like some statistical regression going on. We've hit all legit chances except for one (southern storm). That's far from normal here. This one is a legit chance but will prob end up a near miss. At least for our yards. I've barely posted about this event because i figured my yard would struggle days ago. My hunch appears correct but close enough to nowcast later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 This ukmet map makes 0 sense with the Meteogram. It must be counting sleet as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 1 minute ago, nj2va said: This ukmet makes 0 sense with the Meteogram. I’m just going to blindly hug the Ukie snow map. I’m sure I’ll get 35 degree rain but I’m just going to believe the Ukie is on to something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 It seems to have come to its senses at least for DCWhat a terrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deer Whisperer Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 just a quick observation but the surface temps on hrrr have gone down by a degree or 2 the last couple runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 Forecast high 39 currently 30 dropped from 32 after the sun went behind clouds. But ive been through this many times went the temps bust low during the day the clouds over night steady the temps or rise them over night. I understand why the temps stay steady with a blanket. but sometimes when the temps bump up so many degrees over night with no heat source just puzzling tho i know south winds bring warmth. but normally this is hot the low busted temps normally get canceled out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 33-34 HdG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 35 minutes ago, nj2va said: This ukmet map makes 0 sense with the Meteogram. It must be counting sleet as snow. 28 minutes ago, Yeoman said: What a terrible model. That snow map does make sense. The problem isn’t the ukmet it’s the flawed algorithm on that map we’ve been looking at all winter! Smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10, 2019 Share Posted February 10, 2019 35 minutes ago, nj2va said: This ukmet map makes 0 sense with the Meteogram. It must be counting sleet as snow. All snow maps count sleet as snow on the 10:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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