jaydreb Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 11:49 PM, MD Snow said: Any support within the GEFS? Expand I think you know the answer to that. No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 Bob who? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 11:49 PM, MD Snow said: Any support within the GEFS? Expand Not that i can see. Through d8 there isn't a single member that has mostly snow. Plenty of good solutions but nothing remotely close to the cold/deep snow solution the fv3 has. I'm not saying there is no chance for a sweet closed low with a good track but there needs to be a lot more support for the idea than a single run of the fv3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 @Bob Chill From an individual GEFS members standpoint what kind of an event are they pointing too? Fv3 is on a island by itself and has a 0% chance of verifying ,but do most give us a modest snow event prior to raining on us? TT doesn't give much detail for individual members. Thank you in advance. Much appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 FV3 should be heavily weighted and favored immensely in this situation. Weenie handbook page 411: "Newest beta updated models should be used more than any other guidance because they are new and improved with all the latest technology and stuff" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 12:43 AM, Chris78 said: @Bob Chill From an individual GEFS members standpoint what kind of an event are they pointing too? Fv3 is on a island by itself and has a 0% chance of verifying ,but do most give us a modest snow event prior to raining on us? TT doesn't give much detail for individual members. Thank you in advance. Much appreciated. Expand Through d6 it's pretty much equally divided with not much at all, decent but not great, and warning level. Overall a moderate event or larger is favored 2:1 over nuisance or non-event. The whole thing has a lot of moving parts with timing and outcomes spread pretty wide. By Friday we should hopefully see some sort of consensus emerge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 12:53 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: It's over probably as much as your days of more than 5 posts Expand Look all I’m saying is he’s saying there’s a 0% chance of verifying that’s just wrong info that’s all. Also the gfs FV3 nailed November 15th snowstorm while the gfs initialized rain during the snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 12:54 AM, Bob Chill said: Through d6 it's pretty much equally divided with not much at all, decent but not great, and warning level. Overall a moderate event or larger is favored 2:1 over nuisance or non-event. The whole thing has a lot of moving parts with timing and outcomes spread pretty wide. By Friday we should hopefully see some sort of consensus emerge Expand Friday still feels aggressive to me for a Monday-Tuesday event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 12:57 AM, leesburg 04 said: Friday still feels aggressive to me for a Monday-Tuesday event Expand Not too early for some sort of consensus though. Like support for the same general progression. Not locked in or anything. If we are going to get snow it's likely to be a nailbiter into the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 1:01 AM, Bob Chill said: Not too early for some sort of consensus though. Like support for the same general progression. Not locked in or anything. If we are going to get snow it's likely to be a nailbiter into the short range. Expand Agree I can even see a run or two tomorrow where the models show partly sunny on Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/6/2019 at 11:33 PM, psuhoffman said: I could live with that. Expand After all the fretting --- watch you blow past climo with one storm and not even into the great pattern yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 12:55 AM, losetoa6 said: As early as hour 96 already substantial differences out west with our ball of energy. Gfs keeps a solid 1 peace and Fv3 splits in 2 ejecting a piece that becomes the Hecs . Man..I'll dream that all other guidance trends to the new and improved Gfs at 0z. Fv3 Expand That's a major -PNA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 1:01 AM, Bob Chill said: Not too early for some sort of consensus though. Like support for the same general progression. Not locked in or anything. If we are going to get snow it's likely to be a nailbiter into the short range. Mentioned that this morning that it’ll be this weekend where we’ll start pegging down the overall upper level progression. Moving pieces galore. It’s never easy to get a big storm in the MA. If the FV3 run is right, I’ll use it to forecast for every storm the rest of the year exclusively. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 1:01 AM, Bob Chill said: Not too early for some sort of consensus though. Like support for the same general progression. Not locked in or anything. If we are going to get snow it's likely to be a nailbiter into the short range. Expand Love the nail biter. Gives me a reason to wake up in the morning. But I have learned not to stay awake for the overnight runs.. they are a turd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 We’ve been getting great 500 passes all fall and early winter, maybe it’s about time one lines up with some cold. #FV3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 1:09 AM, MillvilleWx said: Mentioned that this morning that it’ll be this weekend where we’ll start pegging down the overall upper level progression. Moving pieces galore. It’s never easy to get a big storm in the MA. If the FV3 run is right, I’ll use it to forecast for every storm the rest of the year exclusively. . Expand We really need an opposite of Doctor No which seems to always take a perfect scenario and drive daggers into weenie hearts. It would be nice to have a model especially a US model that could do the opposite and take a hopeless situation and turn it into a positive solution where other guidance slowly caved to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 1:09 AM, MillvilleWx said: Mentioned that this morning that it’ll be this weekend where we’ll start pegging down the overall upper level progression. Moving pieces galore. It’s never easy to get a big storm in the MA. If the FV3 run is right, I’ll use it to forecast for every storm the rest of the year exclusively. . Expand We all know it probably isn’t but it has had 5 straight runs with a coastal now. Will be interesting to see if it flips tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 1:09 AM, MillvilleWx said: Mentioned that this morning that it’ll be this weekend where we’ll start pegging down the overall upper level progression. Moving pieces galore. It’s never easy to get a big storm in the MA. If the FV3 run is right, I’ll use it to forecast for every storm the rest of the year exclusively. Expand saved for posterity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 12:55 AM, losetoa6 said: As early as hour 96 already substantial differences out west with our ball of energy. Gfs keeps a solid 1 peace and Fv3 splits in 2 ejecting a piece that becomes the Hecs . Man..I'll dream that all other guidance trends to the new and improved Gfs at 0z. Expand You made me look! Good catch....also note that as the run progresses the GFS puts another ULL just west/over Hudson Bay. FV3 has ridging and the system can continue to dig under us. Not out of the question the GFS is wrong with the placement of that feature...or even it's existence at all. Same goes for the FV3 tho...who knows? Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 1:10 AM, BristowWx said: Love the nail biter. Gives me a reason to wake up in the morning. But I have learned not to stay awake for the overnight runs.. they are a turd Expand Exactly! Almost every storm around here is a nail biter (except 2016, of course). I look forward to checking on overnight progress and reading Showmesnow’s analysis every morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 1:24 AM, MD Snow said: We all know it probably isn’t but it has had 5 straight runs with a coastal now. Will be interesting to see if it flips tonight. Coastal isn’t out of the cards for sure, but that H5 progression was straight of the KU books. Until we see models flip to something like that, FV3 might be off its rocker. Fun to look at though. One can only hope. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 1:29 AM, Jandurin said: saved for posterityI’m sure people in here would love to see it happen to me just to get that to come to fruition. Overall, it’s different on multiple pieces compared to other guidance. Need to see more trends toward it and for it to hold on to a similar evolution. Something tells me our progression answers are still a few days away. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 The FV3 is actually the new NAM. It defies logic over and over again. FV3’d! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 The FV3 shows snow for a hand full of hours and then a mix to rain. Then, tail end snow. The initial dump occurs at night, so no insolation worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 2:26 AM, winterymix said: The FV3 shows snow for a hand full of hours and then a mix to rain. Then, tail end snow. The initial dump occurs at night, so no insolation worries. Expand Typical of most our HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 ICON has light snow with Wave 1 especially for north of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 3:27 AM, nj2va said: ICON has light snow with Wave 1 especially for north of DC. Expand ICON is a complete disaster in relation to H5 vs FV3. Not even close. Wants to phase even farther West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 While waiting on the GFS...interesting stuff... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 3:43 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON is a complete disaster in relation to H5 vs FV3. Not even close. Wants to phase even farther West. Expand I hear you but is it worth comparing H5 to FV3...that’s such an extreme scenario that is unlikely to happen anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 7, 2019 Share Posted February 7, 2019 On 2/7/2019 at 3:43 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: ICON is a complete disaster in relation to H5 vs FV3. Not even close. Wants to phase even farther West. Expand I'm more interested late Sunday- early Tuesday. I think we could have a good event and then be washed away by the cutter on Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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