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February 10-12, 2019 Storm


WxUSAF

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27 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

With no strong low pressure within a 1000 miles it’s a lock that the low level cold will hang on longer than modeled

I agree. The west to east track of high pressure is the tell. Lately (as in last few years) we've had a number of events miss or fail because hp is escaping to the NE or E in advance of precip with progressive flow. The WAR this year was a pain in the rear too. All models are showing NE surface flow when precip is knocking on the door. Makes all the difference sometimes. Insitu cad sucks because surface and mid level flow has already backed to the south before onset. Frozen is brief and the flip is quick. Mon-tues look pretty good in the cad department

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1 minute ago, Wonderdog said:

We could probably work something out. Somehow though, I don't think this particular run will materialize.

I am inclined to think you are correct.  But it made for an otherwise uneventful evening. We are about 5 days out so following weenie rule 322 inside 5 days means it’s a lock when you pick the snowiest model. 

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1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

I am inclined to think you are correct.  But it made for an otherwise uneventful evening. We are about 5 days out so following weenie rule 322 inside 5 days means it’s a lock when you pick the snowiest model. 

I'd be satisfied with the 4 inches the GFS is showing for us. (That's what she said)

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Fv3 is on an absolute island with the upper levels. If another model other than the jma showed something remotely close to this I'd give it more thought. My take is the fv3 is 100% wrong with this:

fv3p_z500a_us_27.png

So you’re saying there’s a chance?

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