February 10-12, 2019 Storm

[aldie 22]

I plan to give up on Wednesday

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Agreed. Depth of cold in the mids is not impressive at all. Still close enough and enough time for things to shift to a much better outcome but my enthusiasm is declining little by little as the midlevels retreat little by little every 6 hours. 

This is what I was posting about this morning. You could see the slow bleed start about 5 model cycles ago. 36 hours ago it had the cold drain all the way down into western north Carolina. Now barely south of the mason Dixon line.

There's still enough time left though for an improvement but we need a reversal to start soon.

 

[Ji]

I wouldn't give up. Euro is colder this run than 12z yesterday and stronger high

[pasnownut]

56 minutes ago, Woodbridge02 said:

Is this counting sleet/freezing rain as snow?

With all due respect....Who cares. 

Its not rain. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, Ji said:

I wouldn't give up. Euro is colder this run than 12z yesterday and stronger high

Never give up when it's close until inside of 3 days. I can see how it can get better and also see how my yard gets 100% rain. I'm not spiking any footballs. Too many moving pieces for anyone to say they know exactly what will happen. We do need a cushion for the final 24-48 hours though. The tics in that timeframe have always been north this season. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

There's a good CAD signature on the Euro.  There's a good cold air drain from the ne.  The problem with the Euro (and maybe others, I haven't looked) is that there is little cold air.  If you look at the 850 temps over northern NE they are only around -10.  That's not exactly a frigid arctic airmass sitting up there. So the CAD stands for "cool" air damming.

[jaydreb]

40 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There's a good CAD signature on the Euro.  There's a good cold air drain from the ne.  The problem with the Euro (and maybe others, I haven't looked) is that there is little cold air.  If you look at the 850 temps over northern NE they are only around -10.  That's not exactly a frigid arctic airmass sitting up there. So the CAD stands for "cool" air damming.

This.  Mid-February and it’s not cold enough.  Smh.  

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Yep.. as well as  high position looks pretty solid.  I'm not sure I agree with the "cool "  air . Euro..pre storm  has Monday afternoon surface highs in nne in single digits in many spots . That's plenty cold imo with a nice drain trajectory down to us ..as depicted .

Maybe its not enough with single digits if the H is too far removed.  Not as if its centered over upstate NY.  Snow cover is marginal to our north until you get to NY. And for Feb it seems like it could be colder.  probably a number of factors but taking center stage seems to be the depth or lack of depth for this air mass.  what else can it be if there is a cold air drain with CAD in Feb.

[Ji]

I mean this is a really good high location. Get the mid levels a bit cooler and the thump of snow is back

[poolz1]

7 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps continues to look better with high strength and cad duration. Qpf also jumped up

Just looked...wow.  A very nice improvement...had to take a double take.  I didnt expect that tbh.  I understand the issue with snow maps when it come Ptype but imby I went from 2.5" @0z to 4.5" at 12z.    An indication of the better CAD...as you mentioned.

[psuhoffman]

17 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Just looked...wow.  A very nice improvement...had to take a double take.  I didnt expect that tbh.  I understand the issue with snow maps when it come Ptype but imby I went from 2.5" @0z to 4.5" at 12z.    An indication of the better CAD...as you mentioned.

the EPS snowmaps on wxbell do not count ice as snow.  That is why the EPS snow mean is consistently "less weenie" looking even when they show the same pattern.  Often it is less weenie because its right...there is that too.  Just saying

[psuhoffman]

In fairness the Euro op did improve this run in some significant ways, just not in terms of snowfall for DC itself but a slight shift south with the mid level temps and suddenly...

[poolz1]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

the EPS snowmaps on wxbell do not count ice as snow.  That is why the EPS snow mean is consistently "less weenie" looking even when they show the same pattern.  Often it is less weenie because its right...there is that too.  Just saying

Anytime I mention snow maps I feel like I need to add some kind of disclaimer....unfortunately. It eliminates having to respond to 10 replies about the reliance of them.

With that said, I did not know that....In that case, obviously the mean improved but the ind members look pretty darn sweet...compared to 0z.  

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

There's a good CAD signature on the Euro.  There's a good cold air drain from the ne.  The problem with the Euro (and maybe others, I haven't looked) is that there is little cold air.  If you look at the 850 temps over northern NE they are only around -10.  That's not exactly a frigid arctic airmass sitting up there. So the CAD stands for "cool" air damming.

Yep. That was my concern yesterday. Just how cold is the air really going to be. It isnt cold enough on the Euro to help us unfortunately. Still some time. But this one is looking less likely IMO.

[NorthArlington101]

18z NAM is sleety (actually maybe FRZA) with the first wave Sunday evening/Monday morning.

 

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Yep. That was my concern yesterday. Just how cold is the air really going to be. It isnt cold enough on the Euro to help us unfortunately. Still some time. But this one is looking less likely IMO.

EPS actually favors better CAD and a more frozen outcome. The op and ens improved from 0z. We're talking like a 100 mile difference with thermal profile and we end up doing fairly well. However, we need some wiggle room once we get inside of 48 hours. Gives us 2 days for a colder solution to come into focus before we start giving back some inches as the event closes in. 

[Amped]

Can't get your Hope's up to much when the ULL track looks this bad.

[poolz1]

10 minutes ago, Amped said:

Can't get your Hope's up to much when the ULL track looks this bad.

Agree with you in a general sense.  But, each event is of it's own character...With dews like this 6 hours before precip and a high that is not racing NE in the process, we are probably looking at a dif outcome than just history of ULL tracks.  Not saying this has big boom potential but it has much better potential than if you took just general climo for an ULL track.

[aldie 22]

I'm not totally mad at the 18z NAM

[SnowGolfBro]

13 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Agree with you in a general sense.  But, each event is of it's own character...With dews like this 6 hours before precip and a high that is not racing NE in the process, we are probably looking at a dif outcome than just history of ULL tracks.  Not saying this has big boom potential but it has much better potential than if you took just general climo for an ULL track.

I like that look. If we get a solid WAA piece Sunday night we have a chance for a thump before mixy mixy

[Stormpc]

12 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I like that look. If we get a solid WAA piece Sunday night we have a chance for a thump before mixy mixy

With our location, we need a lot of help. We are almost completely out of it. We need vast improvements to show up soon

[Amped]

34 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Agree with you in a general sense.  But, each event is of it's own character...With dews like this 6 hours before precip and a high that is not racing NE in the process, we are probably looking at a dif outcome than just history of ULL tracks.  Not saying this has big boom potential but it has much better potential than if you took just general climo for an ULL track.

Yeah, I just don't like these snow to 50 and heavy rain setups. Probably how this one ends up.

[SnowGolfBro]

5 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

With our location, we need a lot of help. We are almost completely out of it. We need vast improvements to show up soon

What else do we have to track? Hope for a PWC miracle 

[BristowWx]

4 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said:

What else do we have to track? Hope for a PWC miracle 

Can’t argue that.  I need a reason to donkey punch myself every 6 hours.  This is the reason. 

[MD Snow]

Icon is snow/mix north of the cities until Monday afternoon. Then freezing rain. Areas north and west stay below freezing for the majority of the event. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, MD Snow said:

Icon is snow/mix north of the cities until Monday afternoon. Then freezing rain. Areas north and west stay below freezing for the majority of the event. 

lol its so cold

[poolz1]

9 minutes ago, Amped said:

Yeah, I just don't like these snow to 50 and heavy rain setups. Probably how this one ends up.

Max sfc temp for the euro/gfs for FDK is 33/35 for the entire event.  But, I do get what you are saying....I have my hesitations with this one as well.  As @clskinsfan mentioned...a real solid cad event would show up all the way down to SWVA/NC.  Gun to my head, 2-3" before some icing....rain. 

[SnowGolfBro]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

Can’t argue that.  I need a reason to donkey punch myself every 6 hours.  This is the reason. 

But every once in a blue moon things fall our way.  It’s like golf. You take s beating all day but then hit one pure shot and you keep coming back for more.  

[CAPE]

Best chance of frozen here is the initial wave. I need that to get jacked up some so I can get an inch or 2 of snow/sleet to pad my snow totals before multiple waves of rain arrive thereafter. Useless snow, other than maybe getting into double digit territory for the season.

[Ji]

the GFS is lost...on  an island..it dosent have the ability to handle CAD. Sad ending to a sad model