psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Easy to see why the Ukie is a big hit. Take a look how far east it gets compared to the GFS and Euro. It's been sticking to its guns while the other guidance jumps back and forth between that idea and the stronger cutter solution. Doesn't make it right, it could be consistently wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, psuhoffman said: It's been sticking to its guns while the other guidance jumps back and forth between that idea and the stronger cutter solution. Doesn't make it right, it could be consistently wrong. Agreed. And I think we have seen this year that it has been less phase happy in the mid range and consistently south and weak with lows in general. Our January event it was the southern outlier until almost go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It's been sticking to its guns while the other guidance jumps back and forth between that idea and the stronger cutter solution. Doesn't make it right, it could be consistently wrong. It was the only model last week consistently showing the coastal enhancement with our little cold powder event. NAMs picked up on it at the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 8, 2019 Author Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It's been sticking to its guns while the other guidance jumps back and forth between that idea and the stronger cutter solution. Doesn't make it right, it could be consistently wrong. True. What doesn’t hold water for me is how the gfs handles the CAD in today’s run. High is stronger and in a better position and just has no holding power on temps. Don’t buy it at all. GFS consistently sucks with CAD and don’t think it’s right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I can understand the CAD being under-represented but it was like the GFS had never even heard of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: Agreed. And I think we have seen this year that it has been less phase happy in the mid range and consistently south and weak with lows in general. Our January event it was the southern outlier until almost go time. lol yep...kept trying to give me 10" of snow all week leading up to that rainstorm... even until like 48 hours out then it finally shifted way north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: True. What doesn’t hold water for me is how the gfs handles the CAD in today’s run. High is stronger and in a better position and just has no holding power on temps. Don’t buy it at all. GFS consistently sucks with CAD and don’t think it’s right now. Oh not saying I think the GFS is right either. Let's see what Dr. No has to say soon. That will go a long way to influencing my opinion of the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 16 minutes ago, yoda said: Decent We partially abscond? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Woodbridge02 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 18 minutes ago, yoda said: Decent Is this counting sleet/freezing rain as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Reporter: Yoda, you've just won the first 2 billion dollar powerball in history, how do you feel? Yoda: Decent 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You got the hang of it. Very good! But perhaps minus 1 point because he used "Yoda" rather than your usual "Yoder"! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 UKIE has my Cincinnati low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 no wonder no one mentioned the GEFS...took a step back. Still decent but after a really great 6z it stepped back quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 36 minutes ago, yoda said: Decent Lots of reasons to be skeptical but this looks like a classic 6-12 inch storm setup for our region. South and east with lower totals and and North and West with higher totals. If the the Ukie holds serve tonight and the other models are still making wild swings i think it needs to be considered as a possiblity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 25 minutes ago, Woodbridge02 said: Is this counting sleet/freezing rain as snow? Believe so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Lots of reasons to be skeptical but this looks like a classic 6-12 inch storm setup for our region. South and east with lower totals and and North and West with higher totals. If the the Ukie holds serve tonight and the other models are still making wild swings i think it needs to be considered as a possiblity I'll have what you're having! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, osfan24 said: I'll have what you're having! Unbridled optimism lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Maybe a smidge colder through 66 with a mixture mess from just south of dc north on the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, LP08 said: Maybe a smidge colder through 66 with a mixture mess from just south of dc north on the Euro A smidge colder is probably not good. I don't like where we're heading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Though 84, low is a few mb weaker but certainly not Ukie like. High in a great spot. Should be a little better for Md. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Inthepines Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Unbridled optimism lol Led to Billy Mumphreys downfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Though 84, low is a few mb weaker but certainly not Ukie like. High in a great spot. Should be a little better for Md. Through 102 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, LP08 said: Though 84, low is a few mb weaker but certainly not Ukie like. High in a great spot. Should be a little better for Md. If we ever had them, we've already lost the 850s by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Probably a couple extra hours of frozen. Very little snow until you get into PA. Bleh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 So we have models 1&3 (Euro GFS)vs 2&4 (UK CMC) I'll continue to have hope until the last man standing but I'm not optimistic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: If we ever had them, we've already lost the 850s by this time. Can’t lose what you don’t have! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 11 minutes ago, SnowGolfBro said: Unbridled optimism lol not for us brother. I know where this is headed. CAD argument can only be used to a point. This is not the deep CAD to NC kind of setup. If I am wrong we get more frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, peribonca said: So we have models 1&3 (Euro GFS)vs 2&4 (UK CMC) I'll continue to have hope until the last man standing but I'm not optimistic I think we can toss the Euro because it looks similar to the GFS which is garbage. Talk about rationalizing a bad model run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: not for us brother. I know where this is headed. CAD argument can only be used to a point. This is not the deep CAD to NC kind of setup. If I am wrong we get more frozen. Agreed. Depth of cold in the mids is not impressive at all. Still close enough and enough time for things to shift to a much better outcome but my enthusiasm is declining little by little as the midlevels retreat little by little every 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Agreed. Depth of cold in the mids is not impressive at all. Still close enough and enough time for things to shift to a much better outcome but my enthusiasm is declining little by little as the midlevels retreat little by little every 6 hours. But haven't we done this dance enough times lately? There was a 50/50 (but not blocked in) with a better high this time, so the steady progression of the boundary NW has been slower and more subtle, but its the same exact trend as EVERY storm during that period after the January 12th Storm. This time we had better conditions to our northeast but a worse trough axis to our west and so its going to offset probably. But for the last several weeks we have not had a favorable trough axis and not enough blocking that would be needed to offset that problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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