February 10-12, 2019 Storm

[Chris78]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

the GFS is garbage...it will never see this properly....i dont buy it

For what it's worth the fv3 does look better than it's 00z and 06z runs

 

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

Just now, Chris78 said:

For what it's worth the fv3 does look better than it's 00z and 06z runs

 

I won’t forgive that model for showing and taking away my 22” of snow 

[AU74]

3 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

How do you forecast with these crappy models. 72 hours away they can’t somewhat agree. I don’t know what to make of any forecast for Sunday night/Monday. I think Late mon, Tues is fairly clear at least for northern MD with snow/maybe ice to rain though 

Weather forecasting predates models, IIRC.

[WEATHER53]

Remember models are not predictors of outcome nor even “most likely scenario”.They cover all the bases for a time frame and somewhere in representation over a 1-7 day period one of those projections will confirm and thus more funding to do it all over again.

if you want to be a model reader then fine but if you want to learn how to predict what will most likely happen then a different method must be employed.

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

2 minutes ago, AU74 said:

Weather forecasting predates models, IIRC.

Completely aware, but models play a huge role in forecasting. I’m not sure how anyone can make a confident forecast at this point. The models haven’t been good this year in my opinion. 

[frd]

Ugh, to make matters worse the GFS seems to have lost the signal it had for nest weekend's event, by not having the sysytem mid week develop into a significant 50 /50 Low. Figures. 

 

[BaltimoreWxGuy]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Remember models are not predictors of outcome nor even “most likely scenario”.They cover all the bases for a time frame and somewhere in representation over a 1-7 day period one of those projections will confirm and thus more funding to do it all over again.

if you want to be a model reader then fine but if you want to learn how to predict what will most likely happen then a different method must be employed.

I know but the models have been bad...did you read the discussion a couple days ago by the NWS how they were essentially completely unsure because models showed Tuesday temps ranging anywhere between upper 20s to 70 lol. That said it all 

[SnowGolfBro]

I’m interested in the Ukie. Because it gave us snow 12 hours ago.  If it caves thats okay because i can hug the GGEM

[WEATHER53]

Synoptic history is the way to go but it requires years of monitoring events to establish a pattern of outcome. Models use very little analog data and are mostly math  calculations of A +B=C or B+C=D, examples; but not prediction. Almost the only think I look at now is precedent and current  500mb patterns and as something gets closer then 850s and boundary.  Keith does this also and is better with seasonal patterns  then anyone I’ve ever met or seen and hes nailing it again this winter.

Start keeping records of set ups and outcomes. It takes a while but if you do it to even 60% accuracy then you won’t need  to wring your hands over every 6 hours.

[Jandurin]

you can comment on the fallibility of the models without it being "hand-wringing"

[AU74]

32 minutes ago, BaltimoreWxGuy said:

How do you forecast with these crappy models. 

But the question was ^^^^.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I don't recall a situation in which a low that far west has given us a good anything.  For me, I'm hoping over the next 48 hours or so that the models start getting that thing further east like the euro runs from a few days back had it.  Ideally I'd like to see it get as far east as Cincinnati before it rides north.  I think that's a dream though.

I suppose that most of that initial precip is coming from the wave out in front.  I don't think a low in Kansas/Missouri can be expected to produce a bunch of precip here.

All in all, I don't think this looks good right now.

[LP08]

Ukie looks fairly similar to 0z (off the not very to easy to read Meteo center maps) precip approaching with temps below freezing both at the surface and 850.

[psuhoffman]

32 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Remember models are not predictors of outcome nor even “most likely scenario”.They cover all the bases for a time frame and somewhere in representation over a 1-7 day period one of those projections will confirm and thus more funding to do it all over again.

if you want to be a model reader then fine but if you want to learn how to predict what will most likely happen then a different method must be employed.

This is seriously insulting to the people that work on NWP.  Each run of each model uses their best mathematical ability to model the atmosphere.  The results out in time are wrong because we have not yet fully completed all the equations that govern the atmosphere and our ability to measure all of the variables that go into it are incomplete.  But they are doing a darn good job compared to 10 and 20 years ago, AND a hell of a lot better then if we still had to rely on current conditions and extrapolation.  Good luck with that beyond 24-48 hours lol.  You're insistence that there is some nefarious motive among the entire weather community across various nations and agencies both private and public is both ridiculous and insulting!

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, frd said:

Ugh, to make matters worse the GFS seems to have lost the signal it had for nest weekend's event, by not having the sysytem mid week develop into a significant 50 /50 Low. Figures. 

 

That storm is a cutter on ALL other guidance right now so did we really have any actual expectations pinned on that?  The GFS just had one run with a hiccup like that one Euro run a couple days ago.  I guess the fact they both had the same hiccup means that idea of the h5 cutting under is there as a possible solutions if the 50/50 goes ape but the fact it's only shown up on those 2 op runs out of the last dozen or so across all guidance, with almost no ensemble support...means its an extremely low probability with a cutter by far the most likely solution.  

[yoda]

3 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Ukie looks fairly similar to 0z (off the not very to easy to read Meteo center maps) precip approaching with temps below freezing both at the surface and 850.

Good amount of precip between hours 60 and 72... at least 10mm

[showmethesnow]

29 minutes ago, frd said:

Ugh, to make matters worse the GFS seems to have lost the signal it had for nest weekend's event, by not having the sysytem mid week develop into a significant 50 /50 Low. Figures. 

 

The 50/50 is still there. We are just seeing different timings on both features (50/50, NS drop)  The 50/50 is quicker and the NS is slower so we are seeing a much larger gap between them. So we are losing the suppression of the heights in the east way before the trough even enters the picture. You can see this by how quickly heights build up the east coast. 

[CAPE]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is seriously insulting to the people that work on NWP.  Each run of each model uses their best mathematical ability to model the atmosphere.  The results out in time are wrong because we have not yet fully completed all the equations that govern the atmosphere and our ability to measure all of the variables that go into it are incomplete.  But they are doing a darn good job compared to 10 and 20 years ago, AND a hell of a lot better then if we still had to rely on current conditions and extrapolation.  Good luck with that beyond 24-48 hours lol.  You're insistence that there is some nefarious motive among the entire weather community across various nations and agencies both private and public is both ridiculous and insulting!

He has been repeating this same crap over and over for years.

[yoda]

12z UKIE prints out around 2" QPF through 120

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

He has been repeating this same crap over and over for years.

I can only take so much of the tin foil hat crap 

[Jandurin]

you should really consider things from both sides, even if one side is wrong

[yoda]

12z UKMET looks good through 84... 0c 850 line south of us and decent HP and good position

ETA:  Good through 96... but starting to lose 850s

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, yoda said:

12z UKMET looks good through 84... 0c 850 line south of us and decent HP and good position

The high position is similar to November but the difference is that event approached you guys as well as up this way from about a 180-210 degree angle so the WAA precip all generated fairly far to the east getting coastal areas.  This event has more of an approach from the west-southwest so it starts later and likely lower amounts with more WAA precip going north and west of the cities 

[LP08]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z UKMET looks good through 84... 0c 850 line south of us and decent HP and good position

ETA:  Good through 96... but starting to lose 850s

Let’s hope the Ukie is right through 90 with this precip.

[yoda]

850s are gone by 102... but temps are right around 32/33 through 111

[yoda]

Decent

[psuhoffman]

Reporter: Yoda, you've just won the first 2 billion dollar powerball in history, how do you feel?

Yoda:  Decent 

[LP08]

Easy to see why the Ukie is a big hit.  Take a look how far east it gets compared to the GFS and Euro.

 

 

[stormtracker]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Reporter: Yoda, you've just won the first 2 billion dollar powerball in history, how do you feel?

Yoda:  Decent 

You got the hang of it. 

[Eskimo Joe]

^It's also the weakest with the Midwest low.