snowmagnet Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 10 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Good point. However, the 6z even with its trends over the last few runs still got close, if not gave you, a warning level event. Edit - Also, isn’t the fact that the storm is coming in faster the reason for the erosion of the cold air faster? That’s not a trend towards a weaker cad setup. The whole system has moved up in time. I thought we were hoping for an earlier event due to a longer CAD event. Am I wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Good point. However, the 6z even with its trends over the last few runs still got close, if not gave you, a warning level event. Edit - Also, isn’t the fact that the storm is coming in faster the reason for the erosion of the cold air faster? It erodes the cold just the same as before but the primary is getting its act together faster not necessarily because the cold is eroding faster. Somewhat but the depth of cold air isn't the same . I'm not a fan of snow maps but I'll use the positive snow depth change map because I think their closer to ground truth in these situations. You can see the southern edge creeping further north each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, Chris78 said: Somewhat but the depth of cold air isn't the same . I'm not a fan of snow maps but I'll use the positive snow depth change map because I think their closer to ground truth in these situations. You can see the southern edge creeping further north each run. This is just a heads up for future reference; positive snow depth change map is actually pretty terrible in relation to something like Kuchera. Also, snow maps in general are pretty terrible for the most part at range. Best thing to do is look at soundings, look at Bufkit, and factor in climo to get a better ratio analysis for any snow/sleet. They are pretty to look at and can signal certain trends in an event, but they have been way off. If I had to pick one, gun to head, it would be Kuchera since its algorithm factors in ratios better with ice crystal formation. Still not exact science though. This event will run 8-12:1 mean over the sub with lower ratios further south due to increasing depth of warm air and clumped aggregates. WAA snows tend to run down that path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 58 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Not sure when it's suppose to become the operational but imho it appears to be struggling. It's seems prone to wild swings. 20 minutes ago, snowdude said: The FV3 has just been horrid lately IMO and I’m afraid when it takes over as the permanent GFS. A red-tagger posted a day or two ago that the FV3 becoming operational has been put off indefinitely. He didn't say if it's because of the shutdown, bad verification scores, or something else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said: A red-tagger posted a day or two ago that the FV3 becoming operational has been put off indefinitely. He didn't say if it's because of the shutdown, bad verification scores, or something else. i think tropical tidbits just gave up on it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 It’s all about the CAD, and nothing but the CAD. And models don’t get that right at 4 days out. Ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: A red-tagger posted a day or two ago that the FV3 becoming operational has been put off indefinitely. He didn't say if it's because of the shutdown, bad verification scores, or something else. The shutdown? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s all about the CAD, and nothing but the CAD. And models don’t get that right at 4 days out. Ever. Can't like this enough. I said multiple days ago it would not be until the weekend until we get closer to ground truth and even then, it's going to be short term trends in Mesoscale guidance that will have a better handle on the depth and magnitude of the cold air available prior to moisture making it into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, Mdecoy said: Its not a good setup, so this is no shocker. Its looking more and more like an inch or 2 and then a rainer vs 4-8 inches and a dry slot. Makes sense. We will be waiting the precip as the temp goes up. I think next weekends storm is one to watch. Keep us posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 9 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: A red-tagger posted a day or two ago that the FV3 becoming operational has been put off indefinitely. He didn't say if it's because of the shutdown, bad verification scores, or something else. yes, I read the post some time ago and they basically realize that there are some errors within and need to fix prior to launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: It’s all about the CAD, and nothing but the CAD. And models don’t get that right at 4 days out. Ever. Pretty much this. I’m waiting until Saturday 18z before I become dismayed. And even then, it might be too soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 So is it going to snow or not? So much back and forth in here. I guess it is due to mby posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 hours ago, anotherman said: I agree 100%. The worst snowstorms are the ones that you know will be gone right away. Even the wintry week we had last week wasn't as fun because I knew the blowtorch would destroy all the snow in a few days. I mean. That is our climo though. We dont freeze fro weeks on end here. It only happens every couple of decades that we end up cold through the entire winter. It is just how we do winter here. So being mad that snow melts a few days later is kind of pointless if you live in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 29 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I mean. That is our climo though. We dont freeze fro weeks on end here. It only happens every couple of decades that we end up cold through the entire winter. It is just how we do winter here. So being mad that snow melts a few days later is kind of pointless if you live in this area. It's even a thing 500 miles straight north of here. Not as drastic of course, but they have their cutters and their warmup and rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 43 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I mean. That is our climo though. We dont freeze fro weeks on end here. It only happens every couple of decades that we end up cold through the entire winter. It is just how we do winter here. So being mad that snow melts a few days later is kind of pointless if you live in this area. I agree, but I get much less interested in March. If we can get some very anomalous cold like we did back in 2014 and it was snowing at 19 degrees at noon in the middle of March I'm down for that. Or if we can get some kind of big paste job that's fun too. A run of the mill 2-4 inch storm in March I can take or leave. By March I'm just thinking about those beautiful upper 60s and low 70s before we are assaulted with 70+ dewpoints every day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Icon is good. 2-4” north of dc mainly from wave one. Never loses the surface for the event for areas north and west of the cities. It doesn’t show mix but I would guess major icing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 1 hour ago, snowdude said: The FV3 has just been horrid lately IMO and I’m afraid when it takes over as the permanent GFS. The implementation has been delayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Icon is good. 2-4” north of dc mainly from wave one. Never loses the surface for the event for areas north and west of the cities. It doesn’t show mix but I would guess major icing. I think when we say icing to me if its freezing rain it needs to be in the 20s with light rain falling. If its 31.6 and heavy rain maybe a hand railing might get slick. If we are talking sleet then different story...I like sleet honestly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 13 minutes ago, MD Snow said: Icon is good. 2-4” north of dc mainly from wave one. Never loses the surface for the event for areas north and west of the cities. It doesn’t show mix but I would guess major icing. wave 2 is pretty ugly in general, but wave 1 has an overperformer look as far as temps are concerned. hopefully there's enough precip to take advantage of it before the next wave cuts west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Nothing good ever comes from a bowl ball coming in the Pacific Northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I think when we say icing to me if its freezing rain it needs to be in the 20s with light rain falling. If its 31.6 and heavy rain maybe a hand railing might get slick. If we are talking sleet then different story...I like sleet honestly Sleet is fun. “Freezing rain” at 31 degrees is just cold rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Just now, Jandurin said: precipitation field etc etc Was looking at 6z by accident so I deleted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Ugly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 12z GFS mostly rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jandurin Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 it's like the gfs doesn't even think CAD exists Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 Hold the line y’all. Just hold the line. Give it until 18z Sat or better yet 0z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 I'd take the GGEM. Too bad its the GGEM lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, yoda said: I'd take the GGEM. Too bad its the GGEM lol Wow. That's nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 the GFS is garbage...it will never see this properly....i dont buy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 8, 2019 Share Posted February 8, 2019 How do you forecast with these crappy models. 72 hours away they can’t somewhat agree. I don’t know what to make of any forecast for Sunday night/Monday. I think Late mon, Tues is fairly clear at least for northern MD with snow/maybe ice to rain though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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