WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Can we get another one to break in our favor in a bad pattern? Fast flow with lots of shortwaves going to make for jumpy forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 @Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Considering we were talking about punting half of February, nice to be tracking something right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 This potential is as far away as February is old Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Time to hug the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 I don't envy the forecasters for early next week. From the end of the LWX disco LOL: In terms of sensible weather, this leaves the range of potential outcomes anywhere between well above normal temperatures and rain, to well below normal temperatures and snow. The level of uncertainty is captured well by the range of high temperatures forecast by ensemble guidance for Tuesday, which ranges anywhere from the upper 20s to the lower 70s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 For years I've imagined calling it the JiMA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 51 minutes ago, Fozz said: For years I've imagined calling it the JiMA. Good ol' Aunt JiMA...She's a little dotty but she means well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6, 2019 Author Share Posted February 6, 2019 The depiction of Monday’s wave can’t help but remind me of our big January storm and last Friday. Both times models show this respectable wave in the plAins and Midwest that dies as it gets to us in the midrange. Both storms trended better for us in the short range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Seems like GFS wants to deliver a happy hour for Wave 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 This looks like a good thump coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, Chris78 said: This looks like a good thump coming. Meh. Ends up a couple of inches of snow that are quickly washed away by a deluge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 48 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Good ol' Aunt JiMA...She's a little dotty but she means well... Ji-M-A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 The mjo of the gefs is insane. It's literally all the charts in phase 8 near mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, jaydreb said: Meh. Ends up a couple of inches of snow that are quickly washed away by a deluge. As it stands, it looks unimpressive, but if the cold can hold on longer and doesn't scour out so quickly (which will also depend on the track), then we could be in for a nice event. I've seen it happen numerous times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: As it stands, it looks unimpressive, but if the cold can hold on longer and doesn't scour out so quickly (which will also depend on the track), then we could be in for a nice event. I've seen it happen numerous times. No question. Not writing it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, Fozz said: As it stands, it looks unimpressive, but if the cold can hold on longer and doesn't scour out so quickly (which will also depend on the track), then we could be in for a nice event. I've seen it happen numerous times. The high is in a decent spot to start the event so cold could hold on a bit longer than depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 2 minutes ago, Chris78 said: The high is in a decent spot to start the event so cold could hold on a bit longer than depicted. Yep, but it would help to have something hold it. It will depend on if this week's cutter can become a good transient 50-50 low once it gets to the maritimes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 With no strong low pressure within a 1000 miles it’s a lock that the low level cold will hang on longer than modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, Fozz said: Yep, but it would help to have something hold it. It will depend on if this week's cutter can become a good transient 50-50 low once it gets to the maritimes. Ah--so maybe that's why Cranky on twitter was saying that tomorrow or Friday would be a good benchmark to start predicting the next storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: Ah--so maybe that's why Cranky on twitter was saying that tomorrow or Friday would be a good benchmark to start predicting the next storm! Exactly, and that's why there is still so much spread with this system within the ensembles. I think pretty much everything is still on the table with this. From cutter to coastal. Should have a better idea which direction it's headed by tomorrow evening into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: With no strong low pressure within a 1000 miles it’s a lock that the low level cold will hang on longer than modeled Do you think that will help us with snow, or just bring hours of zr? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 FV3 on the ncep looks really good for next weeks storm. Precip stays almost all snow. Need to wait for tt to get a clearer picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MountainGeek Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 6 minutes ago, Fozz said: Do you think that will help us with snow, or just bring hours of zr? Or sleet --- wouldn't be a bad thing to get a nice thick glacier of snow and sleet topped with ice crust as a base for the upcoming epicness later in Feb. No snowflake shall be wasted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 7 minutes ago, wkd said: FV3 on the ncep looks really good for next weeks storm. Precip stays almost all snow. Need to wait for tt to get a clearer picture. Sub 990 tucked into OC.....Sick run but not much support for this type of evolution....unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 3 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Sub 990 tucked into OC.....Sick run but not much support for this type of evolution....unfortunately. I read here in one post the FV3 is prone to lower heights which leads to good solutions. That said, it’s weenie x3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Sub 990 tucked into OC.....Sick run but not much support for this type of evolution....unfortunately. Can you send me the link for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Sub 990 tucked into OC.....Sick run but not much support for this type of evolution....unfortunately. My weenie handbook says you hug it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 Man would it be neat to preview a good pattern with a phase 7 MECS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted February 6, 2019 Share Posted February 6, 2019 1 minute ago, Wonderdog said: Can you send me the link for that? click 18z at the top first https://mageval.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance-model-parameter.php?group=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20190122 00 UTC&param=850_temp_mslp_precip&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=model&fhr_mode=image&loop_start=-1&loop_end=-1# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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