FEB OH, mid/lower MS, Wabash river flooding and heavy rain threat

[janetjanet998]

KLOU about early next week

 WHILE THE LATEST GLOBAL GUIDANCE   
GENERALLY KEEPS THE HEAVIEST BAND OF QPF ACROSS THE TN VALLEY, THE   
NORTHWARD/NORTHWESTWARD TRENDS IN THE MODEL DATA ARE A BIT   
CONCERNING.  SHOULD THE SE RIDGE BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE   
MODELS SUGGEST, WE COULD SEE THIS HEAVY QPF AXIS SHIFT A BIT FURTHER   
NORTH/WEST INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WHERE WE SIMPLY DO NOT NEED IT.  
  

[janetjanet998]

[janetjanet998]

local dams to release less water, hope to reduce flooding impact downstream

 

U.S. Army Corps of Engineers Operations Manager Mike Looney says over the past several days they’ve been pushing a lot of water through Barkley Dam.

“If you put a basketball in a box, that’s about a cubic foot. So, there are 150,000 boxes with basketballs or water going through the spillway section every second,” says Looney. “What we have been doing with Kentucky and Barkley Lakes is an aggressive spilling operation moving water out of the lake in order to position the lakes where we can continue to start holding water back as the crest approaches Paducah and Cairo, Illinois.”

As the Ohio River reaches its peak, Looney says less water will be released out of the dams, causing lake levels to rise above typical summer levels. He says that should also help reduce the impact of flooding downstream.

“There’s really no such thing as flood proofing anything,” says Looney. “We can manage the risk involved with flooding, and hopefully what we intend to do is minimize the damage caused by the high water.”

It’s a similar story over at Kentucky Dam. Tennessee Valley Authority spokesperson Travis Brickey says come Friday morning, they will be storing water to help reduce the impact downstream. Because of this, he says water levels at Kentucky Lake are also expected to rise above summer pool.

https://www.wpsdlocal6.com/2019/02/14/local-dams-to-release-less-water-hope-to-reduce-flooding-impact-downstream/

 

 

[janetjanet998]

Lake Cumberland is at its highest level in 20 years..they are going to increase outflow to 35,000 cfs (record 40,000) and are building temp flood walls for protection 

The TVA has all major dams releasing water on the TN river to storage for the upcoming system , but this water has to go somewhere.. into the OH eventually

the OH at Cairo is still expected to crest at 52 feet in a couple of days and hold study for about a week,, this would be the 20th highest on record but that is without most of next weeks rain factored in

here is the problem

 

 

 

[janetjanet998]

huge amounts of rain expected this week over the tN valley into KY...trends are inching northwest (see 12z NAM for example) with more of this falling closer to the river itself

here is the TN valley thread...with details about what  they plan to do with all  the water to prevent it from getting into the OH

 

[janetjanet998]

[janetjanet998]

18Z NAM with yet another tick NW with the Tuesday/weds system..now nails OH River

perhaps a concern is they are expecting the huge  rain amounts in SE TN..so they are sending all this water down TN River below Pickwick into the OH river eventually?

 

what is the heaviest falls more NW with the increased flows from the TN too? 

[janetjanet998]

KLOU

 

LOOKING AT   
AREAL AVERAGE RAINFALL TOTALS TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, OUR SOUTHERN   
INDIANA COUNTIES LOOK TO SEE 2-4 INCHES, WHEREAS CENTRAL KENTUCKY   
LIKELY WILL HAVE 2-6! 

 

[SchaumburgStormer]

Even though it seems you are chatting with yourself @janetjanet998, I am reading this thread and find it very informative. Keep it up! 

[janetjanet998]

with some for rain factored in ..I believe 48 hours so thru 12z weds... crest raised to 53 feet from 52 feet at Cairo next monday

 

A top 10 crest for the river at Paducah and Cairo becoming more likely it seems 

[janetjanet998]

[janetjanet998]

Cairo crest forecast 54.5   11th all time

Paducah 51.5 8th

[janetjanet998]

Crest forecast at Cairo increased to 55 feet..9th highest on reccord

 

but the real interesting stuff may be happening at Lake cumberland

see here (and older post here for reference info)

 

[Indystorm]

Amazing discussions and views of Cumberland Falls......sure a lot more water than when I visited last year.

[Indystorm]

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Indianapolis IN
453 PM EST Thu Feb 21 2019

...SPRING FLOOD AND WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK FOR CENTRAL AND MUCH OF
SOUTHERN INDIANA...

.Discussion...

The late winter flood potential outlook for much of the White and
Wabash River basins in central and southern Indiana is above
normal. An above normal flood potential outlook means that
significant rainfall is expected in the near future which could lead
to extensive flooding across central and southern Indiana.

As of February 21st, stream levels in central and southern Indiana
were above normal for this time of year. Flooding was ongoing
along the lower stretches of the White and Wabash basins with
waters expected to stay above flood stage through early March.

Much of central and southern Indiana experienced extensive flooding
earlier this month with widespread minor flooding and scattered
moderate flooding. With soils very saturated, any rainfall will lead
to higher than normal runoff. Soil moisture is expected to remain
above normal through much of Spring which could lead to more
frequent floods than normal.

Heavy rain is expected this weekend across with the heaviest rain
falling across southern Indiana.  This will lead to another round of
flooding in locations that flooding has ended and prolong ongoing
flooding.

The 6 to 10 day outlook from February 26th to March 2nd
And the 8 to 14 day outlook from February 28th through March
6th indicates near to below average precipitation and below
average temperatures across Indiana.

Anyone with interests in flood prone areas should remain alert to
changing weather conditions. Flood conditions can develop quickly
during early march. Many of the significant floods to strike
Indiana have occurred during March.

[janetjanet998]

Top 5 crest now expected at Cairo and Paducah 

56.5 cario and 53.5 at Paducah

this is all depended if the heavy rain one make it more north I think...if not they will be lower

they are dumping huge amounts out of the Kentucky Lake and Barkley but they have no choice

 

 

[Stebo]

In Southern IL, if this is the start and we remain in an active wet pattern going into spring, this is going to get ugly.