Feb 6-7 icing

[codfishsnowman]

please just let it be a chilly rain here

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, White Rain said:

I observed a significant elevation gradient  in Sterling locally on the east side of the hills - it definitely played a big role here. There was a significant gradient from areas just east of here to the higher parts of town. Damage was catestrophic above 600 ft and much milder just a 200-300ft lower. Going west you had to go higher to see the same damage.  This is typical of the cold air drain we typically see here in these set ups.

It was like that in ORH as well. You had to be mostly above 600 feet. Once you got up to Fitchburg and Leominster though, it was ridiculous even down to the lowest spots at about 300-400 feet. The elevation gradient was still there but less pronounced versus west of the hills. The worst damage I saw was partway up wachusett mountain...maybe around 1500-1600 feet. 

[CoastalWx]

25 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Scott what are your thoughts on the immediate Boston area?

I think some sleet and glaze possible, but easterly flow will turn it to a cold rain later Wednesday night or Thursday morning. I’ll look more when I get in tonight.

[Sugarloaf1989]

CF just passed through.

[weathafella]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think some sleet and glaze possible, but easterly flow will turn it to a cold rain later Wednesday night or Thursday morning. I’ll look more when I get in tonight.

I just need roads to ok by 9-10AM Thursday.  Heading south and will hug the coast of conditions mandate.

[powderfreak]

Cold air starting to move into NNE... we are back down into the mid-30s.

Tomorrow morning's observations should help out a lot for you guys in the icing zone.

 

[DavisStraight]

32 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

please just let it be a chilly rain here

I wont be heartbroken if I get no frozen either, I like electricity and heat.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Hoping the grid goes down 

[CT Valley Snowman]

33 and rain will probably be common around my area.  Perhaps a few hours of zr on the front end but I'm skeptical of big impacts in the valley south of Springfield

[Modfan]

1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Cold air starting to move into NNE... we are back down into the mid-30s.

Tomorrow morning's observations should help out a lot for you guys in the icing zone.

 

Already down to mid 40's in NE CT

[dryslot]

2 hours ago, tamarack said:

More qpf-starved with each run.  Maybe 1-2" of rime-mangled 6:1 flakes?  Then some ZR to RA on Thursday night, and not much of either.  This event has been getting less and less interesting as time passes.

Its pretty meh overall, Going to have to wait until next week it seems for something more interesting.

[Sugarloaf1989]

44.2F here with gusty NW winds.

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, White Rain said:

It was pretty bad down to about 400ft here really, it just got much worse above 600ft.  Every power line was down across our street with it covered.  Lost power for a few days, neighbor for about 10 being on a different line. I know you had it bad down there too. I drove up from Warwick RI ((PVD AIRPORT) almost didnt land due to the ice risk on the plane wings, Driving back I noticed the ice once I hit Worcester. I also witnessed the decrowning around 1300-1400 feet near the access road entry, that was impressive.

It was pretty bad here above 600 ft and just NW in town in the 800ft-1000ft range where it was the most severe there in town, with more ice on the ground up in those spots as well- the damage was very severe only worse spots I saw were in Princeton/Westminster and the highest spots.  Leominster did get it worse for the elevation but was still not as bad at 300feet in town there, I thought the areas near holden seemed most severe on 190/2 east regions from there. Just my experience with the storm.

That matches pretty close with what I saw. Paxton was also extremely bad...being at 1200 feet just west of ORH airport. Paxton lost a bunch of utility poles...a whole bunch of them taken down, snapped. I didn't see it that numerous any where else though prob up in Princeton/Westminster would have had similar damage...I just didn't really get up to Princeton until over a week later. 

Being on winter hill right on the Holden line was definitely one of the nastier spots. The icing though diminished more quickly in ORH once below 600 feet versus just to the north. Even within the city itself it was different...southern ORH city at ~600 feet was a lot more tame versus 600 feet on the north side near Burncoat/Quinsig Community College where it was destructive damage. It's definitely one of the most fascinating storms due to the marginal temps so the terrain and geographic position relative to the terrain mattered a lot more than usual. 

 

[Damage In Tolland]

In 08.. how long was it zr and below 32? As I recall it was above freezing by later that next day?

Was the airmass being funneled down in that drier than this one is progged?

What accretion Level in that one started tearing everything down?

[Modfan]

Is there a accretion map for the 2008 event? I was working an overnight EMS shift in Thompson and heard Oxford Fire out for a bunch of tree and wire calls in the Rt 20/56 area and here I am 10 miles south rotting with rain 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Early thoughts for ice, and snow next week.

Favoring a moderate snow event next week, but big one can't be ruled out.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/02/mid-week-ice-threat-snow-potential-next.html

[scoob40]

40 minutes ago, CTValleySnowMan said:

33 and rain will probably be common around my area.  Perhaps a few hours of zr on the front end but I'm skeptical of big impacts in the valley south of Springfield

I'm skeptical south of Northampton.

[Lava Rock]

Its pretty meh overall, Going to have to wait until next week it seems for something more interesting.

Was looking forward to a refresher. Hard to get excited about anything a week out

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk

[ORH_wxman]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In 08.. how long was it zr and below 32? As I recall it was above freezing by later that next day?

Was the airmass being funneled down in that drier than this one is progged?

What accretion Level in that one started tearing everything down?

About a half inch of accretion is when all hell started to break loose. It happened very quickly and went exponentially...it was fine and then all of the sudden it wasn't and then the shotgun blasts accelerated really fast...by the time we were at 3/4" to an inch it was just a war zone....the transformers were blowing all over the place. I had called Ray a couple hours after I lost power and asked him if there was lightning detected anywhere and he said there wasn't. I quickly realized it was transformers blowing. 

The bulk of the ZR was about 10 hours between 5-6pm and 3-4am. There was light glazing earlier in the day before that but it was prob a tenth of accretion or less. 

 

This airmass looks slightly colder actually...esp at 950mb...but it doesn't have the QPF of '08 which was like 2-3 inches. It also doesn't have the mesolow orientation like 2008 which has a nice extension from like MVY up off the coast of PSM...that really drove the dews southwest. But we'll see if this one tries to get a little barrier jet going at all. 

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

About a half inch of accretion is when all hell started to break loose. It happened very quickly and went exponentially...it was fine and then all of the sudden it wasn't and then the shotgun blasts accelerated really fast...by the time we were at 3/4" to an inch it was just a war zone....the transformers were blowing all over the place. I had called Ray a couple hours after I lost power and asked him if there was lightning detected anywhere and he said there wasn't. I quickly realized it was transformers blowing. 

The bulk of the ZR was about 10 hours between 5-6pm and 3-4am. There was light glazing earlier in the day before that but it was prob a tenth of accretion or less. 

 

This airmass looks slightly colder actually...esp at 950mb...but it doesn't have the QPF of '08 which was like 2-3 inches. It also doesn't have the mesolow orientation like 2008 which has a nice extension from like MVY up off the coast of PSM...that really drove the dews southwest. But we'll see if this one tries to get a little barrier jet going at all. 

I remember you telling us that story with Ray. The thing I recall about that one though is how unexpected it was. At least to that extent 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

57 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Hoping the grid goes down 

You want a direct hit from a massive X-class solar flare for that. 

[Sugarloaf1989]

3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

You want a direct hit from a massive X-class solar flare for that. 

Or a 1998 style ice storm.

[Dpb1983]

In 08, I lived in a 3 family in Clinton, Ma.  I remember reading the disco the night before (pre-lurker days) and there was not a warning for significant ice, they were calling for a glaze. I got up at 5, did my usual routine and went out to start the car to find a nice candy shell on it.  Driveway was a skating rink, but I managed to get out and started my commute down the hill towards Bolton.  I came upon three cars at a dead stop in the middle of the road and thought, “what the hell are these a-holes doing!”  All of the sudden, they all started backing up like madmen, and I saw the tree falling into the road.  It was eerily beautiful, like a crystal chandelier, but I quickly joined in the reverse parade.  I did a u-turn to take a different route, but no matter which road I went down, there was no way through.  At that point, I started heading back home, dodging limbs that were falling in real-time all around me.  I finally got home, my wife asked me what was going on and I told her it was like a war zone outside.  

I then called my boss, who was in N. Reading to explain that I couldn’t make it to work.  He was pretty PI$$ed off, because it was plain rain up his way.  I told him to turn on the news and call me back.  After about ten minutes, he called me and just said, “wow, we’re gonna be busy”.  I was a residential electrician at the time.  

After sunrise, I watched from our third floor bedroom window as massive pines were being decimated one after another.  I then told my wife I wanted to go outside and watch.  As soon as I got to the end of the driveway, a huge oak split in two and took out two telephone poles on my street.  I ran back inside before the wires could even hit the ground.

absolutley insane seeing the trees bent all the way to the ground.  We only lost power for about 4 hours, because we shared the same feeder as the hospital, but the rest of town was out for a week!

[Kitzbuhel Craver]

Seems pretty meh in the CT river valley this time around in comparison to the last icing event, which was pretty epic.

[Damage In Tolland]

14 minutes ago, Dpb1983 said:

In 08, I lived in a 3 family in Clinton, Ma.  I remember reading the disco the night before (pre-lurker days) and there was not a warning for significant ice, they were calling for a glaze. I got up at 5, did my usual routine and went out to start the car to find a nice candy shell on it.  Driveway was a skating rink, but I managed to get out and started my commute down the hill towards Bolton.  I came upon three cars at a dead stop in the middle of the road and thought, “what the hell are these a-holes doing!”  All of the sudden, they all started backing up like madmen, and I saw the tree falling into the road.  It was eerily beautiful, like a crystal chandelier, but I quickly joined in the reverse parade.  I did a u-turn to take a different route, but no matter which road I went down, there was no way through.  At that point, I started heading back home, dodging limbs that were falling in real-time all around me.  I finally got home, my wife asked me what was going on and I told her it was like a war zone outside.  

I then called my boss, who was in N. Reading to explain that I couldn’t make it to work.  He was pretty PI$$ed off, because it was plain rain up his way.  I told him to turn on the news and call me back.  After about ten minutes, he called me and just said, “wow, we’re gonna be busy”.  I was a residential electrician at the time.  

After sunrise, I watched from our third floor bedroom window as massive pines were being decimated one after another.  I then told my wife I wanted to go outside and watch.  As soon as I got to the end of the driveway, a huge oak split in two and took out two telephone poles on my street.  I ran back inside before the wires could even hit the ground.

absolutley insane seeing the trees bent all the way to the ground.  We only lost power for about 4 hours, because we shared the same feeder as the hospital, but the rest of town was out for a week!

That story gives me chills . I know it’s a sickness. But I love stuff like that 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

We really need this lol 

[powderfreak]

It seems like QPF will be the limiting factor here.  Decent differences between the GFS and EURO but even if you take the high-end EURO, it'll still spare many the true damaging ice.

Definitely the risk for isolated areas though of some damage if QPF can get greater than 0.75".

Widespread advisory ice though looks like a good bet.  Lots of quarter inch type stuff seems like the way to go... glistening trees.

 

[dryslot]

53 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Was looking forward to a refresher. Hard to get excited about anything a week out

Sent from my Pixel 2 using Tapatalk
 

1-2" won't do it.

[Dpb1983]

17 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That story gives me chills . I know it’s a sickness. But I love stuff like that 

Same here, I was like a kid driving around the next day.  I took a ton of photos, but they were all stored on a hard drive that got put into our attic somehow.  Let’s just say it didn’t make it...

[ineedsnow]

0Z NAM is warmer... I dont think this is a big deal at all here