dendrite Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:34 PM, dryslot said: What a Expand I have no use for sleet with a meh fossilized snow pack and a finally cleared driveway. Maybe I can build a sleetman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Haven't looked at things real closely, is that tongue of slightly warmer air right up the Connecticut River through Connecticut and up to near Springfield realistic in this setup? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:30 PM, HoarfrostHubb said: Any rule of thumb that people sometimes use for ice accretion vs qpf? For example, does 1.0" of qpf roughly translate to 0.25" accretion? I know it's not that simple, but I was wondering... Expand Pretty sure it's between about 50-90% rate depending mostly on intensity and wind speed. Temperature really behind these factors in importance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Looks pretty good - I do think that we won't see the kind of icing we did last time in southern areas and even the valleys to some extent. The Arctic air over central/northern New England isn't anywhere near as impressive. My area that I'm most interested in is parts of Litchfield County where 2/3 to 3/4" of ZR is modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:36 PM, dendrite said: I have no use for sleet with a meh fossilized snow pack and a finally cleared driveway. Maybe I can build a sleetman? Expand Its actually adds and solidifies the pack, Obviously i would prefer snow, But we will take anything frozen other then the zr, Let the others that wish for death and destruction have it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:37 PM, CTValleySnowMan said: Haven't looked at things real closely, is that tongue of slightly warmer air right up the Connecticut River through Connecticut and up to near Springfield realistic in this setup? Expand It's possible because the CT River Valley may be cutoff from the dewpoint feed since we're mostly advecting down from Maine. They'll latently heat to 33-34F and rot. The coldest layers are initially around 950mb too so that's why the Berks and NW CT stay colder. There will prob still be ice though in the valley for a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:38 PM, dryslot said: Its actually adds and solidifies the pack, Obviously i would prefer snow, But we will take anything frozen other then the zr, Let the others that wish for death and destruction have it. Expand I'm not worried about an icestorm here. Even if it's all ZR it'll be the typical icing event. I just don't want 1-2" of only pure sleet on my now cleared driveway. Who wants to clear that? The pack will also be solid enough after it freezes back up following this mini torch. It doesn't need more sleet. Toss it like a Sean McVay offensive gameplan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:38 PM, CT Rain said: Looks pretty good - I do think that we won't see the kind of icing we did last time in southern areas and even the valleys to some extent. The Arctic air over central/northern New England isn't anywhere near as impressive. My area that I'm most interested in is parts of Litchfield County where 2/3 to 3/4" of ZR is modeled. Expand NW/ NE hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:43 PM, Damage In Tolland said: NW/ NE hills Expand Sounds like Ryan isn't too worried about a major ice storm for you. I'm glad your family will have heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:44 PM, dendrite said: Sounds like Ryan isn't too worried about a major ice storm for you. I'm glad your family will have heat. Expand Wagons to NW CT. Kevin should downslope off Will's fanny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:49 PM, CT Rain said: Wagons to NW CT. Kevin should downslope off Will's fanny. Expand 08 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:50 PM, CoastalWx said: 08 again Expand I'm gonna pull and ekster tonight with my ice map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 WPC highlights Berks over to Greenfield as only spot with near 50% of >.25 accretion maybe this increases as we get closer to 24-36 hrs from event if models keep bringing higher precip amounts next 12 hours this should /will increase Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:44 PM, dendrite said: Sounds like Ryan isn't too worried about a major ice storm for you. I'm glad your family will have heat. Expand He also told me we wouldn’t have ice issues in that last storm .. so there’s that . To say there’s no ice threat in hilly terrain of NE CT is as silly as you taking days off to spend with the chickens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:50 PM, CT Rain said: I'm gonna pull and ekster tonight with my ice map. Expand Stops at union. Kevin loves that divider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:51 PM, Damage In Tolland said: He also told me we wouldn’t have ice issues in that last storm .. so there’s that Expand A few dead branches on wires in NE CT. Here's where the damage was.... Danbury to Middletown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:52 PM, CoastalWx said: Stops at union. Kevin loves that divider. Expand Remember when he admitted last storm on text how he hates when TOL gets snow and he makes forecasts based on that lol. He did during the snow last week when he went 1-2” . Brought up the firehose storm . His favorite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:38 PM, CT Rain said: Looks pretty good - I do think that we won't see the kind of icing we did last time in southern areas and even the valleys to some extent. The Arctic air over central/northern New England isn't anywhere near as impressive. My area that I'm most interested in is parts of Litchfield County where 2/3 to 3/4" of ZR is modeled. Expand No concern for northern Windham Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 5:07 PM, Modfan said: No concern for northern Windham Expand I find it interesting that the Euro holds on to sub 32 in Northern Windham for so long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Gut feeling is outside of NW CT, and maybe a few spots in the highest NE areas, this is a non event for most in CT., at least the way it stands currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 5:07 PM, Modfan said: No concern for northern Windham Expand There’s plenty of concern for that area as well. One look at the mesos tells us all elevated terrain in SNE is under the gun . Just use the models on this one. They’re eye opening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 4:50 PM, CoastalWx said: 08 again Expand Please, no.... probably just in jest, but wasn't there like 4" of qpf with that vs maybe 1.0" for this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 Yeesh....Euro just really upped the QPF for Wednesday night. This is gonna have to be watched closely....once you start approaching a half inch of accretion then it becomes a huge deal....QPF values are near 0.70-0.75 on Euro now for most of SNE for Wed night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 6:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeesh....Euro just really upped the QPF for Wednesday night. This is gonna have to be watched closely....once you start approaching a half inch of accretion then it becomes a huge deal....QPF values are near 0.70-0.75 on Euro now for most of SNE for Wed night. Expand Insidious nature to this because it may yet only be 40 or so with the dp of say 31 ... but the sounding at 925 telling more the story? I'm not seeing an actual "surface" push but it just sort of flop defaults the BL into dicey cold scenario in the mean of the various guidance' - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 6:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeesh....Euro just really upped the QPF for Wednesday night. This is gonna have to be watched closely....once you start approaching a half inch of accretion then it becomes a huge deal....QPF values are near 0.70-0.75 on Euro now for most of SNE for Wed night. Expand Given the amount of QPF and the depth of the warm layer a loft, that was pretty nasty for central mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Reggie FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Yeah...that's a bit of a surprise with the Euro QPF... I mean I'm not making that up ..the business about the QPF tending to be pricey when the NAM is in this time range... But, seeing the Euro goose this bad boy - heh... yeah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 6:01 PM, ORH_wxman said: Yeesh....Euro just really upped the QPF for Wednesday night. This is gonna have to be watched closely....once you start approaching a half inch of accretion then it becomes a huge deal....QPF values are near 0.70-0.75 on Euro now for most of SNE for Wed night. Expand Qpf thru 48 is frozen as see n below. NE CT is again frozen longer than NWCT. I hate to disagree with Ryan but a drain from maine falls mainly on your pain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2019 Author Share Posted February 5, 2019 On 2/5/2019 at 6:05 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Insidious nature to this because it may yet only be 40 or so with the dp of say 31 ... but the sounding at 925 telling more the story? I'm not seeing an actual "surface" push but it just sort of flop defaults the BL into dicey cold scenario in the mean of the various guidance' - Expand Yeah, the 950mb temps are like -4C....that's been the coldest layer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2019 Share Posted February 5, 2019 Euro has a solid .5 to .7 ice storm from NCT to Monads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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